11-13-24

TOR/WAS O5.5-135 - my numbers show a 68.34% chance to clear 5.5 total. 44.46% to clear 6.5 (O6.0+100)

CAR/UHC O5.5-160 - my numbers show a 65.15 chance to clear 5.5 total. 41.55% to clear 6.5 (O6-115)

Still looking at the later games but wanted to get these in now.

DET/PIT U6.5 is tempting but I do not like to play under players. And this game could explode if PIT netminding is once again suspect. 

DET/PIT O6.5 (-110) shows a 52.45% chance to hit, 41.53% to clear 6.5

Juice is steep on the later games but both west coast games show strong trends to break 5.5 total.

LAK/COL is showing 65.85% to clear 5.5(-175), 55.33% to clear 6.5 (-110)

VGK/ANA is showing 76.92% to clear 5.5 (-210), 49.5% to clear 6.5 (-115)

I will be back later with some type of decision on these later games. 

****NOTE**** this is something new I am trying to track using average goals scored in both home and away games along with a cashe of other data points using Excell to average all the data. It does not take goalies into account for these number as they are meant to be more generic. The record for this tracking on individual plays is 1-3. Not very good thus far but it is VERY new. hoping to make some tweaks for better accuracy in the percentages and make the data more useful in helping to select worthy plays. 

@triplee2385

BOL with your action tonight triplee 

Tip

@tiptnk

 Thank you my friend! Same to you! Got the spread sheet set up so just a matter of tracking data until trends form to follow.   

One more to hit the TOR/WAS game and then its called back as it ricocheted off the players leg DAMNIT, also a goal take off the board from the caps earlier in the night! 

was spot on with the U6.5 in the pens game …idk know why i dont follow my gut on some of these  just a thing against playing unders lol  

VGK/ANA O5.5-120 LP 

Holy shit 3 goals taken off the board in the TOR/WAS game!!.  2 goals take off just in the third period to crush the O5.5. Those bastards. 

A goose egg from the Canes? What is going on lol 

BOOM! Finally some luck my way 

TOR/WASH O5.5 

Now i need the canes to get going and load the net up with goals!

Well i guess it doesnt matter who scores the goals when you play the over but i do know a lot of my friends in here were on the canes tonight. 10 and down three. If any team can do it, the hurricanes can. Tough sledding in the road though. 

Canes have taken 36 shots in goal with 1 to show for it. 

@triplee2385

 Not saying much with 25 minutes of penalty minutes. 

1-1 so far this evening with 1 play pending. Really need some goals in the VGK game but hopefully all from VGK. 

A little luck helped out in the TOR/WAS O5.5 but Ill take it. That was the highest percentage on my list to go over 5.5

Canes took 50 SOG...50 yall! Holy crap. Its really a miracle that one did not get over 5.5 goals, ESPECIALLY with UHC putting up four goals. I fully expected 3-4 out of the Canes when they are taking 50 shots in a game (when was the last time they took 50 shots in a game?), so getting 4 from UHC was a gift in that game. To top it off UHC had 25 penalty minutes to only 2 penalty minutes for Carolina...Wow. However, even this gives me some confidence as on any normal day for most goalies getting peppered with 50 shots they are going to let in at least 2 goals, likely more. UHC scored 4 goals on 21 shots for perspective.  

The kings/Avs game was another O5.5 that was a super strong play on my sheet tonight with roughly 65% chance to go over 5.5. Kings get out shot 13-0 in the second period. Thats not a good way to reach an over and yet here they are tied at 2 and need 2 more to cover the 5.5 going into the third. I like it. 65.85% to clear 5.5 tonight. dialing it in. I like it.