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4-24-15 Playoff Hockey thread, picks and historical information

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Posted: #1
TB stuns the Wings with 2 goals in the last 5 minutes to break a 119 minute scoreless streak and then the winner in just 2:25 into OT to even things up 2-2.  The Preds and Hawks both live to play another day. 

The Habs and Rangers can both close things out tonight.  So you may be asking and I know you are.  How do teams do at home when they are up 3-1 ? The answer is pretty damn well.  That's the reason they are such big faves.  Now I always go by site order which is very important.  I don't care which game a teams wins, I care about where the venue is for the next game coming up. 

In the case of a team leading 3-1 and plays game 5 at home has around a 65% winning percentage.  Now if you just go by round 1 games it goes down to 57%. 

Again as I always say, don't lay the juice that is out there tonight. Knock it down with a -1 line.  Regulation and PL's are just too risky in a playoff game.  Now with that said a road team tonight down 1 or more goals will pull the goaltender a bit more early tonight where it's what the hell portion of the season. 

Oh yeah the Blues, historically speaking they are an excellent play tonight, worth playing -140 or less

2LEGIT2QUITU 3-0 (101-53 run)
Culls17 2-0 (17-3 run +15.15)
GASportsDoc 2-0 (49-27 run)
sportschat 1-0 (Won last 2 games)
Crazy_Train 1-0 (49-34 run +11.63)
MikeyAces 1-0 (7-2 run, +4.80)
BooBunny 1-0 (18-11 run, +8.42 units)

vicb 2-1 (22-18 run +8.91)
ATSLurker 3-4 (39-27 run, +10.40)
UnderDogs1979 2-3 (26-32 run, +27.07)
invite2insight 0-1 (31-17 run +14.25 units)
Chaka26 2-4 (27-32 run +2.68)
LuckySeven27 1-3 (13-6 run, +7.85)

Did not make picks (Need to make a pick by Saturday)
RayRayK 0-1 (60-36 run, +7.35 units)
shimmersun 1-0 (+1.25)
CollectNOW 1-0 (170-119 run)
mags4444 0-1 (+1.53)

Lippsman exempt list
VANBUCK 3-1 (Hit 3 parlays, +13.36)

Pittsburgh at N.Y. Rangers 7:00 pm NBCS
Ottawa at Montreal 7:00 pm CNBC
Minnesota at St. Louis 9:30 pm NBCS

 
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Posted: #2
Montreal ML
Ranger ML
STL ML
 
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Blue Notes ML
Those Who do not learn from History, are doomed to repeat it
 
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Posted: #4
Wild ml
 
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Posted: #5
Oh yeah the Blues, historically speaking they are an excellent play tonight, worth playing -140 or less

1) Just wanted to say thank you for all the info you've provided and keeping this thread going. It's weird....I don't watch much hockey during the regular season. However, once playoffs start...I can't get enough. NHL playoffs are just incredible.

2) When you say the Blues are an excellent play tonight (historically)...what do you mean by that? 

TIA
 
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Posted: #6
What is a -1 line?? Already locked in 2 regulation 
 
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Posted: #7
Lines of -140 Never win for me Don't know Why:)
 
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Posted: #8
Quote Originally Posted by michael_scotch:

Oh yeah the Blues, historically speaking they are an excellent play tonight, worth playing -140 or less

1) Just wanted to say thank you for all the info you've provided and keeping this thread going. It's weird....I don't watch much hockey during the regular season. However, once playoffs start...I can't get enough. NHL playoffs are just incredible.

2) When you say the Blues are an excellent play tonight (historically)...what do you mean by that? 

TIA

Hey there, nice to see you post in the thread.

Teams playing game 5 at home when the series is tied up 2-2 historically has around a 63% winning percentage depending on how you want to massage the numbers.  If you play the current line of -135 you need to win 57.44% of your wagers to break even. So you have value there, also I just like the goaltending matchup better for the Blues. Dubnyk (goaltender for the Wild) has not played well in April with a horrible .895 GAA and .864 in this series.

BOL on whatever you play and feel to post your plays in the thread here. 

 
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Posted: #9
Quote Originally Posted by archtown:

Lines of -140 Never win for me Don't know Why:)

That's the most juice I would lay on a single game.  Although the line is down to -135 now.
 
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Posted: #10
Quote Originally Posted by dutchdelight:

What is a -1 line?? Already locked in 2 regulation 

Ugh, just don't like regulation in playoff games. 

Ok....the -1 line is something a couple of books offer or you can make it yourself by doing a combination of wagering on the ML and PL. 

The beauty of it is that not only does it knock juice down but if a game goes to OT you can still get a push out of it, instead of losing in regulation. 

Send me your email and I will sent you a spreadsheet that will calculate things for you, or I can post a very geeky, eye glazing formula here if you like.

 
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Posted: #11
Quote Originally Posted by Lippsman:


Ugh, just don't like regulation in playoff games. 

Ok....the -1 line is something a couple of books offer or you can make it yourself by doing a combination of wagering on the ML and PL. 

The beauty of it is that not only does it knock juice down but if a game goes to OT you can still get a push out of it, instead of losing in regulation. 

Send me your email and I will sent you a spreadsheet that will calculate things for you, or I can post a very geeky, eye glazing formula here if you like.


Ahh that makes sense, i've send you a PM, thanks dude 
 
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Posted: #12
Lips, first off, I really value your insight and perspective. I think I can speak for a lot of people and say its true value to the forum. I am new to posting although I've been following here for a few years in nba,nhl and nfl. Huge Blackhawks fan here yet last nite they burned me bad. I hit all other Ml except them. In the last two nights I've hit 7/8, nothing to show for though since the night I went 100% here (22nd), I got screwed on the spurs over.  I read all the bullshit on other threads and I can't stand when people bs their records or bets as I know a lot of us don't so I'm just gonna be honest. Not sure of my record but I can tell you if I had bankroll to play single bets, I'd be around 60%. I truly mean that. My problem is parlays. Granted they've paid al lot this year for me, I'm wondering if I should stear towards  singles or two gamers. Here is my point: tonite or tomorrow I'm thinking on placing a large bet, for me that's 250/500 on a two game parlay, and after seeing this thread of teams up 3-1 at home winning about 60%, I'm wondering if tonite those teams go 2 for 2? Lips, culls, atslurker, Moho, weebs, mikeyaces, crazy train, I respect all of u guys and know you read and invest into this thread, I'm wondering your thoughts? WHICH MONEY LINES DO YOU LIKE TONITE OR ARE THERE GAMES TOMORROW YOU LIKE BETTER? The hawks tomorrow stick out to me but more interested in tonite. I'm not here to impress, I'm just a family man who is out with a bad injury on the job. With that time, I hang my boys when they are home and I study games/lines. My leans for tonite, although MLs may be chalk, are:

habs ML
rangers ML
blues ML
Habs/Ottawa Under
rangers/Pitt Over
blues/wild Under
 
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Posted: #13
Wild @ Blues DRAW +285



 
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Posted: #14
NY ML
Mont ML
St L ML
 
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Posted: #15
Quote Originally Posted by Sco316:

Lips, first off, I really value your insight and perspective. I think I can speak for a lot of people and say its true value to the forum. I am new to posting although I've been following here for a few years in nba,nhl and nfl. Huge Blackhawks fan here yet last nite they burned me bad. I hit all other Ml except them. In the last two nights I've hit 7/8, nothing to show for though since the night I went 100% here (22nd), I got screwed on the spurs over.  I read all the bullshit on other threads and I can't stand when people bs their records or bets as I know a lot of us don't so I'm just gonna be honest. Not sure of my record but I can tell you if I had bankroll to play single bets, I'd be around 60%. I truly mean that. My problem is parlays. Granted they've paid al lot this year for me, I'm wondering if I should stear towards  singles or two gamers. Here is my point: tonite or tomorrow I'm thinking on placing a large bet, for me that's 250/500 on a two game parlay, and after seeing this thread of teams up 3-1 at home winning about 60%, I'm wondering if tonite those teams go 2 for 2? Lips, culls, atslurker, Moho, weebs, mikeyaces, crazy train, I respect all of u guys and know you read and invest into this thread, I'm wondering your thoughts? WHICH MONEY LINES DO YOU LIKE TONITE OR ARE THERE GAMES TOMORROW YOU LIKE BETTER? The hawks tomorrow stick out to me but more interested in tonite. I'm not here to impress, I'm just a family man who is out with a bad injury on the job. With that time, I hang my boys when they are home and I study games/lines. My leans for tonite, although MLs may be chalk, are:

habs ML
rangers ML
blues ML
Habs/Ottawa Under
rangers/Pitt Over
blues/wild Under

Great to see you posting now !!! 

Stay away from parlays, I know the huge score is sooooo attractive, but it can be a money burner.   You can go 1-1 and you lose your wager as opposed to doing two ML wagers and just losing juice.  Now sometimes I will play two big ML's together, but that's just usually when I start to cross sports such as a Pucks and Baskets ML. 

You gotta stay away from the (Stop me everyone if you have heard this before ) juice.  

Personally I like all the home teams tonight so...Well I guess I might as well post my picks now)

So I took home goals -1.5 -110.  I took all the home team which are very juiced, sans the Blues game and made them all into a -110 wager by just laying 1.5 goals.  So in essence I have the whole home team board on a PL tonight. 

One of them can take a dump and I could still win.  You parlay all 3 and one losses then your money is  .

Now looking at your card the first thing that jumps out at me (Yes here I go again) Is that you are making a ton of plays and laying some serious juice on the Rangers and Habs.  Again that will just kill ya.  Also do you really like 6 plays on a 3 game card ?

I mean if you have capped them and really like them go ahead.  But I really would like you to get that juice down on the Ranges and Habs, if you haven't already pulled the trigger with your book.

If you can keep up a 60% win rate up you will make out like a bandit by keeping juice low and staying away from parlays.

BOL to ya and keep posting.


 
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Posted: #16
Reasons for picks in post #12

Notes/Minny
St.louis woke up and realized that they can dictate against anyone. Hence 6-1 the other nite. They have the talent, the depth and yes, the goalie to contend. Dubnyk has been untouchable for two months but he got beat down at home the other nite and like Corey Crawford he will feel the heat like craw did after game 1 in Nashville. Granted dubs won't be taken out, giving up 6, being on the road tonite; not a good combo. I don't care how good he is, St. Louis smells blood and they were woken up by getting shutout. what's underrated in this whole series and nobody has talked about it, it's St. Louis' D. They are good. They will be better going forward. Oshi, backes, shattenkirk will start filling the scoresheet and I think Minnesotas road dominance hits a wall here. Blues 3-1, the shut down the neutral zone on Minny and win the board battles down low.

Pens/rangers
Pittsburgh had heir shot last game and failed. Add the fact that New York has played like crap and still leads 3-1, I think a  2 or 3 goal victory awaits them tonite. New York wants to get the much needed rest necessary for next round and I think they get it.-190 is a ton to lay but in the garden, with a team on the brink, Pittsburgh has yet to show they can muster up the heart to surprise anyone. Could be wrong though like I was last nite with my hawks. Nash lights the lamp tonite. He's been non-existent and if they are going to go anywhere, they need their MVP candidate to start scoring. Rangers 4-2

Habs/sens
I do not like the habs nor do I like PK but that doesn't mean they aren't a well rounded powerhouse especially with price being price so far. I like Ottawa a lot, they earned their spot as a wild card and if not for a few bad breaks, they could be the ones up 3-1. I think this will be a great game tonite because the heart of Ottawa will show up. Their asst. coach passing away from cancer a few weeks ago will for sure add motivation but unfortunately I don't think that gets them past price at home, with that crowd. Montreal wants rest just like the rangers and I expect the depth to overpower Ottawa tonite. If Ottawa can stay out of the box and anders can keep playing good goal, they have a shot but I see a 2-1 game here with the habs ending it. 
 
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Posted: #17
Rangers -1 GL fellas 
 
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Posted: #18
Sco316

Take a look at this when you get time.

https://www.covers.com/postingforum/POST01/showmessage.aspx?spt=23&sub=726543&page=1
 
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Posted: #19
Great post Lipps. It truly is all about discipline. Temptation and greed are the devil and a lot of people succumb to it. For me, betting at times has been about the action not gonna lie but in truth, i try to supplement my income with it in a small way so that it isn't an addiction or make or break. I don't live or die by it. Rather than play 20 4-team parlays and hit one I'd rather play one gamers and hit close to 60%. I think I'm gonna start now and try the % bankroll concept. Thanks for the insight Lipps. 
 
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I go through bov. So you took the home team at -1.5 for each game or you took total home team goals at -1.5 meaning if the home teams goals total 2 more than away in the 3 games aggragate, you win? Sorry thread for this but I usually just ML, PUCK and TOTAL.  In my book, I have no idea how I'd bet the aggragate home goals for 3 games -1.5. Thanks for your patience.
 
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Posted: #21
I like the ML bets and the habs/Ottawa under. I'm looking to just place two tonite. Leaning towards habs and ranger ML although as stated, juice is high. ANYONE HAVE SOME INSIGHT ON MY BLACKHAWKS TOMORROW? I know the lines haven't been set but I'm wondering if we think they win? Guys, if I get annoying just let me know, seriously. Just valuing your guys' insight. Thanks.
 
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Posted: #22
Quote Originally Posted by Sco316:

I go through bov. So you took the home team at -1.5 for each game or you took total home team goals at -1.5 meaning if the home teams goals total 2 more than away in the 3 games aggragate, you win? Sorry thread for this but I usually just ML, PUCK and TOTAL.  In my book, I have no idea how I'd bet the aggragate home goals for 3 games -1.5. Thanks for your patience.

I took total home team goals. 
 
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Posted: #23
Mr. Lippsman,
 
I as well appreciate all you do, and had I listened, would probably still be listed above. What I'm confused on here is in your initial Thread, you said to stay away from PL's during the playoffs. However in your quote below you're taking all 3 home teams on a PL tonight. Is that 3 separate PL wagers on each of the 3? If so, how does the overall line come to -110, since  the 3 PL's are +170, +182 and +210?
 
 
So I took home goals -1.5 -110.  I took all the home team which are very juiced, sans the Blues game and made them all into a -110 wager by just laying 1.5 goals.  So in essence I have the whole home team board on a PL tonight. 
 
Thanks for your explanation!!

 
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Posted: #24
Quote Originally Posted by Sco316:

I like the ML bets and the habs/Ottawa under. I'm looking to just place two tonite. Leaning towards habs and ranger ML although as stated, juice is high. ANYONE HAVE SOME INSIGHT ON MY BLACKHAWKS TOMORROW? I know the lines haven't been set but I'm wondering if we think they win? Guys, if I get annoying just let me know, seriously. Just valuing your guys' insight. Thanks.

Actually they have been set. 

TB -182
Hawks -165
Isles -125
Flames -126
 
 
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Posted: #25
Quote Originally Posted by Hog_Wild:

Mr. Lippsman,
 
I as well appreciate all you do, and had I listened, would probably still be listed above. What I'm confused on here is in your initial Thread, you said to stay away from PL's during the playoffs. However in your quote below you're taking all 3 home teams on a PL tonight. Is that 3 separate PL wagers on each of the 3? If so, how does the overall line come to -110, since  the 3 PL's are +170, +182 and +210?
 
 
So I took home goals -1.5 -110.  I took all the home team which are very juiced, sans the Blues game and made them all into a -110 wager by just laying 1.5 goals.  So in essence I have the whole home team board on a PL tonight. 
 
Thanks for your explanation!!

Never mind. I just figured it out at your 57% number

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