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5-10-17 History Lesson, Pens at Caps, Oilers at Ducks

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Posted: #1
Holy crap, can you say overlay on one game !  Info after the Rangers game is over. History was correct about the Sens tonight.  

 
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Posted: #2
Well a couple of games 7's, just hockey heaven. 

Pens at Caps and Oilers at Ducks

Well we will make this a twofer since we have the exact same situation in both games.

The home team in game 7's do not do as well as you may think. For the Quarterfinal round the home team has a 50% win rate over a sample of 50 games.  You read that correct, just 50%.  If we add in all rounds it goes up to 57.8%. 

Now for the Caps game they are the one that is waaaaay over juiced. For the Quarterfinal win rate it's just a massive overlay.  For all rounds it's still somewhat of an overlay.  So history says to take the Pens +164 for sure.

What about the Oilers and Ducks ?  The Ducks are much more in line with the percentages. But still the Oilers getting back +110 is the way to go considering it's a 50-50 split for the Quarters. Now if you go by all rounds the Ducks are a slight value.

Personally I go by the actual round instead of all games.

History says take the Pens and slightly Oilers.

Bonus history....the Ducks are just horrid in game 7's and the Pens have just had the Caps number in game 7's.

Remember that this is just one tool in your capping bag, use it as such.

But also remember, if you ignore history you will be defeated by it in the long run


 
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Posted: #3
Wednesday WhoWins.com

Penguins @ Rangers

Considering win order; considering site order: The team tied LLWLWW with site order HHVVHV (Washington) has the following best-of-7 playoff series and games record through the 2017 NHL and Preliminary rounds:
Game 7 record, NHL only, all rounds: 3-0 (1.000)
Game 7 record, NHL only, Quarterfinals round: 1-0 (1.000)

After Game 6: When tied 3-games-all in a best-of-7 NHL playoff series, the Washington Capitals have a Game 7 record of 4-10, while the Pittsburgh Penguins have a Game 7 record of 8-7. In Washington, the Capitals best-of-7 NHL playoff Game 7 record is 3-7. On the road, the Pittsburgh Penguins best-of-7 NHL playoff Game 7 record is a perfect and NHL best 5-0

The overall Game 7 record of home NHL teams in best-of-7 NHL playoff series is 97-69 (.584). this series becomes only the fourth best-of-7 /NHL playoff series to follow a win/site order of LLWLWW @ HHVVHV through six games. In each of the previous three such instances, the team posting that win/site order won Game 7 at home. The last team to do so: The Washington Capitals over the New York Rangers in their 2009 NHL Preliminary-round series

least we forget, the Penguins LOST after being UP 3-1 in a series to the Lightning in 2010 AND the Rangers in 2014
 
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Posted: #4
Oilers @ Ducks

Considering win order; considering site order: The team tied LLWWWL with site order HHVVHV (Anaheim) has the following best-of-7 playoff series and games record through the 2017 NHL and Preliminary rounds:
Game 7 record, NHL only, all rounds: 4-5 (.444)
Game 7 record, NHL only, Quarterfinals round: 1-3 (.250)

After Game 6: When tied 3-games-all in a best-of-7 NHL playoff series, the Anaheim Ducks have a Game 7 record of 0-5 (not counting the 2-1 Game 7 record by the old Anaheim "Mighty" Ducks), while the Edmonton Oilers have a Game 7 record of 6-3.  The Game 7 record of the Anaheim Ducks on home ice is 0-4. the Game 7 record of the Edmonton Oilers on road ice is 3-2. The overall Game 7 record of home NHL teams in best-of-7 NHL playoff series: 97-69 (.584)

Ducks last four game seven playoff losses
2013 first-round loss to the Detroit Red Wings
2014 second-round loss to the Kings
2015 conference finals loss to the Chicago Blackhawks
2016 first-round loss to the Nashville Predators

I think THIS  article shows the Ducks definitely in a SWEAT >>> https://www.latimes.com/sports/ducks/la-sp-ducks-oilers-elliott-20170508-story.html 
 
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Posted: #5
Can't wait!   Thanks to both of you  
 
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Posted: #6
both you boys been drinkin??? . Lipps has sens @ caps in post #2. Rink has pens @ rags in post #3
not a savior
 
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Posted: #7
Quote Originally Posted by Lippsman:

Well a couple of games 7's, just hockey heaven. 

Sens at Caps and Oilers at Ducks

Well we will make this a twofer since we have the exact same situation in both games.

The home team in game 7's do not do as well as you may think. For the Quarterfinal round the home team has a 50% win rate over a sample of 50 games.  You read that correct, just 50%.  If we add in all rounds it goes up to 57.8%. 

Now for the Caps game they are the one that is waaaaay over juiced. For the Quarterfinal win rate it's just a massive overlay.  For all rounds it's still somewhat of an overlay.  So history says to take the Pens +164 for sure.

What about the Oilers and Ducks ?  The Ducks are much more in line with the percentages. But still the Oilers getting back +110 is the way to go considering it's a 50-50 split for the Quarters. Now if you go by all rounds the Ducks are a slight value.

Personally I go by the actual round instead of all games.

History says take the Pens and slightly Oilers.

Bonus history....the Ducks are just horrid in game 7's and the Pens have just had the Caps number in game 7's.

Remember that this is just one tool in your capping bag, use it as such.

But also remember, if you ignore history you will be defeated by it in the long run


Hope history changes this time, Lipps. Made 3 series plays: Rangers (Loss) Caps & Ducks. Should be an interesting night. 
 
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Posted: #8
Quote Originally Posted by rlovsin17:

both you boys been drinkin??? . Lipps has sens @ caps in post #2. Rink has pens @ rags in post #3

My post says Pens @ Caps.  Your computer must be broken.

 
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Posted: #9
did you fix it or am I losing it
not a savior
 
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Posted: #10
Pens and Oilers 
 
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Posted: #11
Pitt +160
Edm +105
PensOil.  
 
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Posted: #12
Quote Originally Posted by LeRinkRat:

 Penguins @ Rangers

this series becomes only the fourth best-of-7 /NHL playoff series to follow a win/site order of LLWLWW @ HHVVHV through six games. In each of the previous three such instances, the team posting that win/site order won Game 7 at home. The last team to do so: The Washington Capitals over the New York Rangers in their 2009 NHL Preliminary-round series

Oilers @ Ducks

Considering win order; considering site order: The team tied LLWWWL with site order HHVVHV (Anaheim) has the following best-of-7 playoff series and games record through the 2017 NHL and Preliminary rounds:
Game 7 record, NHL only, all rounds: 4-5 (.444)
Game 7 record, NHL only, Quarterfinals round: 1-3 (.250)

Thanks for these, Rat. The history that matters to me first & foremost is the specific win order married to venue order, round irrelevant. 
 
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Posted: #13
Quote Originally Posted by rlovsin17:

did you fix it or am I losing it

I don't recall

 
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Posted: #14
PIT -1.5 Reverse PL +491 at pinny.....what a value play!
 
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Posted: #15
 thought I was going crazy
not a savior
 
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Posted: #16
 
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Posted: #17
Quote Originally Posted by oilcountry99:

PIT -1.5 Reverse PL +491 at pinny.....what a value play!

+418 on 5Dimes
 
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Posted: #18
do you have any percentages on game 7 totals? not so much for any specific teams just game 7's
 
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Posted: #19
I m going against history. 
 
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Posted: #20
Washington Regulation +103
 
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Posted: #21
Ducks, will wait on caps game until just about game time
 
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Posted: #22
Quote Originally Posted by rlovsin17:

both you boys been drinkin??? . Lipps has sens @ caps in post #2. Rink has pens @ rags in post #3


obviously in my case that Penguins @ Rangers was an "old geezer brain fart". there goes that hardening of the arteries AGAIN!!!

btw, game seven's by definition are "close out games" which means the team behind late in the 3rd period is liable to give up multiple empty net goals. also ALL FOUR teams can score "like a rabbit on a date" when they get it going. playing OVER 5 1/2 in BOTH
 
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Posted: #23
Quote Originally Posted by potvin:

do you have any percentages on game 7 totals? not so much for any specific teams just game 7's


do NOT have over all for ALL game seven's played, Potsie, BUT as stated in my last post, you CAN get multiple empty net goals at the end

5 of the 6 Oilers vs Ducks games this series OVER 5 1/2

3 of the 6 Penguins vs Capitals game this series OVER 5 1/2 with the last two going OVER. the other three were "infamous fives"


 
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Posted: #24
Edm Under 5.5
Edm +110



 
 
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Posted: #25
I love the time and effort put into the write up and there are some great points here, but I don't agree with your point about ignoring history. Other than potentially getting in a players head, history has no effect on what happens tonight. You can usually spin the past to support whatever bet you're making and I'd argue that giving to much credit to the past can be detrimental when in reality the bounce of the puck wont be influenced by any past trends. 

BOL bro. 


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