Well here we go, game 7. Can the Pens clinch at home for game 7? (BTW, they have a serious problem doing that) Can the Sens win game 7 on the road (BTW, they have an even more serious problem than the Pens doing that)
You would think that the home team would just be a cinch to clinch game 7 at home. Well don't forget that hasn't worked out too well this playoff season.
So once again, you think in situation the Pens would be a slam dunk ? Hmmmmm........do you ?
Well......you would be correct.
In this situation the Pens have a 64.5% of clinching game 7 considering Semifinals round stats. If you take all rounds it goes down to 57.7%.
Right now the Pens are -195 average juice at books across the board. So the Pens have to win at an average of 66.1% to break even here. I am much more of a fan following the round breakdown than all rounds.
So here It's almost a wash, flip a coin if you take the ML into consideration.
History says take the Pens. Lippsman says take the Pens on the -1 line.
(For disclosure purposes I will not be taking the Pens since I have a Series wager....a very nice dog wager +266 on the Sens to win the series.)
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To remove first post, remove entire topic.
Well here we go, game 7. Can the Pens clinch at home for game 7? (BTW, they have a serious problem doing that) Can the Sens win game 7 on the road (BTW, they have an even more serious problem than the Pens doing that)
You would think that the home team would just be a cinch to clinch game 7 at home. Well don't forget that hasn't worked out too well this playoff season.
So once again, you think in situation the Pens would be a slam dunk ? Hmmmmm........do you ?
Well......you would be correct.
In this situation the Pens have a 64.5% of clinching game 7 considering Semifinals round stats. If you take all rounds it goes down to 57.7%.
Right now the Pens are -195 average juice at books across the board. So the Pens have to win at an average of 66.1% to break even here. I am much more of a fan following the round breakdown than all rounds.
So here It's almost a wash, flip a coin if you take the ML into consideration.
History says take the Pens. Lippsman says take the Pens on the -1 line.
(For disclosure purposes I will not be taking the Pens since I have a Series wager....a very nice dog wager +266 on the Sens to win the series.)
I hate this spot! I have no series bet and am acyually down 1 unit on this series right now. Now I either have to take Pitts -1 for 2 units + the chalk to gain a unit! It would have been a lot easier if pit had just won game 6. Stupid Anderson played well, but didn't have much traffic to contend with either! Grrrr!
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I hate this spot! I have no series bet and am acyually down 1 unit on this series right now. Now I either have to take Pitts -1 for 2 units + the chalk to gain a unit! It would have been a lot easier if pit had just won game 6. Stupid Anderson played well, but didn't have much traffic to contend with either! Grrrr!
Ottawa is completely spent. They have nothing left in the tank. Penguins could bring up their entire AHL defense and still win easily as long as Crosby Malkin and Kessel are playing tomorrow night. Plus, there is no way in he!! that Bettman will allow a ratings disaster of an Ottawa-Nashville final. This is a rare occasion I would play on a -200 plus ML. No way Penguins lose this game. None. Anderson will not do it again and Pittsburgh will not shoot into his chest that many times again. Should be a 4-0, 4-1 type game.
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Ottawa is completely spent. They have nothing left in the tank. Penguins could bring up their entire AHL defense and still win easily as long as Crosby Malkin and Kessel are playing tomorrow night. Plus, there is no way in he!! that Bettman will allow a ratings disaster of an Ottawa-Nashville final. This is a rare occasion I would play on a -200 plus ML. No way Penguins lose this game. None. Anderson will not do it again and Pittsburgh will not shoot into his chest that many times again. Should be a 4-0, 4-1 type game.
I like your enthusiasm there cappy! I frickin hope you are right, I just don't want to end up laying a 3X normal size bet just to grab 1 unit here! It's god damn spooky! I think I need to spoon!
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I like your enthusiasm there cappy! I frickin hope you are right, I just don't want to end up laying a 3X normal size bet just to grab 1 unit here! It's god damn spooky! I think I need to spoon!
I don't have to bet and I'm already up nearly 8 units for the playoffs so it's not bad, but I hate loosing $ on a series. Have not done it yet this year and don't want to leave it there! I agree that's probly the best move here, juice is so high and I don't even see a -1 line yet, but I'm assuming approx -130!
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I don't have to bet and I'm already up nearly 8 units for the playoffs so it's not bad, but I hate loosing $ on a series. Have not done it yet this year and don't want to leave it there! I agree that's probly the best move here, juice is so high and I don't even see a -1 line yet, but I'm assuming approx -130!
Exactly, I'll lok at the -1 line, but I have a feeling it will also be juiced up. I'm sure if pits wins they win by 2 with an empty netter or perhaps I push. Still not a good bet. I'll probly just lay off!
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Exactly, I'll lok at the -1 line, but I have a feeling it will also be juiced up. I'm sure if pits wins they win by 2 with an empty netter or perhaps I push. Still not a good bet. I'll probly just lay off!
Well here we go, game 7. Can the Pens clinch at home for game 7? (BTW, they have a serious problem doing that) Can the Sens win game 7 on the road (BTW, they have an even more serious problem than the Pens doing that)You would think that the home team would just be a cinch to clinch game 7 at home. Well don't forget that hasn't worked out too well this playoff season. So once again, you think in situation the Pens would be a slam dunk ? Hmmmmm........do you ?Well......you would be correct. In this situation the Pens have a 64.5% of clinching game 7 considering Semifinals round stats. If you take all rounds it goes down to 57.7%.Right now the Pens are -195 average juice at books across the board. So the Pens have to win at an average of 66.1% to break even here. I am much more of a fan following the round breakdown than all rounds.So here It's almost a wash, flip a coin if you take the ML into consideration.History says take the Pens. Lippsman says take the Pens on the -1 line. (For disclosure purposes I will not be taking the Pens since I have a Series wager....a very nice dog wager +266 on the Sens to win the series.)
I'm actually in the same position as you with a sens series wager at +255 which will give me a total of $2700. After watching the dominance of the Pens I decided to put $3k on the Pens at -200. To atleast get a $700 peofit. Just curious to know why you wouldn't hedge as well? Your a sharp respected NHL capper and I'm sure you see the Sens have been clearly exploited. That shot in game 6 to win it was just luck. Their own coach even admits they don't have the talent. Hence I'm not rolling the dice with them.
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Quote Originally Posted by Lippsman:
Well here we go, game 7. Can the Pens clinch at home for game 7? (BTW, they have a serious problem doing that) Can the Sens win game 7 on the road (BTW, they have an even more serious problem than the Pens doing that)You would think that the home team would just be a cinch to clinch game 7 at home. Well don't forget that hasn't worked out too well this playoff season. So once again, you think in situation the Pens would be a slam dunk ? Hmmmmm........do you ?Well......you would be correct. In this situation the Pens have a 64.5% of clinching game 7 considering Semifinals round stats. If you take all rounds it goes down to 57.7%.Right now the Pens are -195 average juice at books across the board. So the Pens have to win at an average of 66.1% to break even here. I am much more of a fan following the round breakdown than all rounds.So here It's almost a wash, flip a coin if you take the ML into consideration.History says take the Pens. Lippsman says take the Pens on the -1 line. (For disclosure purposes I will not be taking the Pens since I have a Series wager....a very nice dog wager +266 on the Sens to win the series.)
I'm actually in the same position as you with a sens series wager at +255 which will give me a total of $2700. After watching the dominance of the Pens I decided to put $3k on the Pens at -200. To atleast get a $700 peofit. Just curious to know why you wouldn't hedge as well? Your a sharp respected NHL capper and I'm sure you see the Sens have been clearly exploited. That shot in game 6 to win it was just luck. Their own coach even admits they don't have the talent. Hence I'm not rolling the dice with them.
I hardly ever hedge, there was a reason I wagered on the Sens, because I thought they had a fighters chance to win and considering it's game 7 I think that even more. The Sens are banged up but the Pens don't have a blue line. Also Anderson can pull out incredible games so I am looking for that again.
Also if the Sens use the same blueprint for game 6 they will really frustrate Crosby
Should be one hell of a game.
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I hardly ever hedge, there was a reason I wagered on the Sens, because I thought they had a fighters chance to win and considering it's game 7 I think that even more. The Sens are banged up but the Pens don't have a blue line. Also Anderson can pull out incredible games so I am looking for that again.
Also if the Sens use the same blueprint for game 6 they will really frustrate Crosby
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