DETROIT V TAMPA BAY OVER 5.5

NHL YTD 151-127 +62.51 units

I've decided to do a write up on this game given that it is a 4 unit play for me.

As always, if you disagree, pass or fade.  Nobody is twisting your arm to follow. Lol

Also, please always bet within your means, comfort level and bankroll.  All our unit levels are different so no reason to bust yourself with one play.  No matter how strong a play is, anything can happen.  The players always have to perform.

DETROIT V TAMPA BAY OVER 5.5 +107  4 UNIT PLAY

First and foremost, my data runs make this game 6.77 goals. There is a good probability of both teams scoring 3 goals a piece according to my data runs.

Let’s get to some supporting information shall we?

First the goaltending.

JONAS GUSTAVSSON is confirmed for Detroit. He’s gone 7-3 over the total against division opponents this season and a 2.77 GAA in home games this season.

Bishop gets the start for the Lightning today.  He’s gone over the total in 3 of his last 4 starts overall. .

Detroit has gone 5-0-1 over the total in their last 6 games overall while the Lightning have gone 6-1 over the total in their last 7 games overall.

80 % of my handicapping is statistical and 20% factors situational trends and other information.  So with that said, there is plenty of supporting ammo for this play.

•  Over is 7-0 in Lightning last 7 road games.
• Over is 4-0 in Lightning last 4 Sunday games.
• Over is 5-0 in Lightning last 5 games following a win.
• Over is 6-0 in Lightning last 6 vs. Atlantic.
• Over is 6-0 in Lightning last 6 in the third game of a 3-in-4 days situation.
• Over is 6-1 in Lightning last 7 overall.
• Over is 5-1 in Lightning last 6 vs. Eastern Conference.
• Over is 4-1 in Lightning last 5 games playing on 0 days rest.
• Over is 4-1 in Lightning last 5 road games vs. a team with a losing home record.
• Over is 4-1 in Lightning last 5 vs. a team with a losing record.
• Over is 41-16-4 in Lightning last 61 when their opponent allows 2 goals or less in their previous game.
• Over is 5-0-1 in Red Wings last 6 overall.
• Over is 4-0 in Red Wings last 4 vs. Eastern Conference.
• Over is 4-0-1 in Red Wings last 5 vs. a team with a winning record.
• Over is 5-1 in Red Wings last 6 after allowing 2 goals or less in their previous game.
• Over is 3-1-1 in Red Wings last 5 home games vs. a team with a winning road record.
• Over is 7-3-2 in Red Wings last 12 vs. Atlantic

OK time for more detailed analysis of some situations.

TAMPA BAY is 13-6 OVER when playing against a team with a losing record in the second half of the season this season with the average score 6.2. they are 11-3 over the total v teams with a winning percentage of .400 to .490 this second half of the season with their games averaging 6.5. 

Detroit doesn’t take a lot of penalties.  Tampa Bay is 22-11 over the total v teams that average 4 or fewer penalties a game with the average score in this games 6.3.

The Lightning are 17-7 over v teams that allow 29.5 shots or more on goal in the second half of this season with the game averaging 6.6 total goals and 27-13 over the total v teams with a PP coversion rate of 17.5% or better in the second half of the season the last 3 years with games averaging 6.6 combined goals. 

If we combine that with teams that also average 29 or more shots on goal, they are 13-3 over the second half of this season with games averaging 6.9 total goals.  That stat for the full season, (TB v teams averaging 29 or more shots and converting 17% or more on the PP sees Tampa 22-11 over the total with those games averaging 6.3 total goals.

The Bolts are 16-3 over the total against teams that average 29.5 shots on goal per game in the second half of this season with the average total score combining for 6.8 total goals.

As for Detroit, they are 20-11 over the total against good starters who have a .915 save percentage or better with the games averaging 6 combined goals.  Also, they are 17-0 OVER the total against teams that are poor on the power play who allow opponents to convert on 19% or more of their short handed opportunities. The average score in this games has been 6.

Tampa is 23-12 in the second half of the season this year with their games averaging 6.3. 

They are 12-3 over in March this season with their games averaging 6.7. 

They are 9-1 over on Sunday games the last 3 seasons with those games seeing 7.1 combined goals.  They are 24-14 over playing their 3rd game in 5 days this season and 17-11 over playing their 4th in 7 days.

The Bolts have not let down off of high scoring games going 17-9 over the total off a game that saw 7 or more total goals scored this season with the subsequent game averaging 6.1 total goals.

Tampa is 26-11 over off 2 straight wins the last 3 seasons with the games averaging 6.4. 

Tampa won the last meeting between these two.  The Red Wings are 10-3 over the total at home revenging a loss where their opponent scored 4 or more goals in the last 3 seasons with the games averaging 6.8 total goals. 

The Wings played last night and beat Toronto 4-2.  The Red Wings are 11-3 over the total off a win of 2 or more goals v a division rival over the last 3 seasons with the games averaging 6.5 total goals.

Therefore, when we factor recent form which has been high scoring for both these teams, the fact that Detroit must keep winning and forced to pinch and the situational data above, this has the makings of a high scoring entertaining meeting.

Best of luck if you tail.