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** DNI's Sunday NHL Pick ** - By DÑI Mourinho®

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Posted: #1
Ladies and Gentlemen,

Tough day at the office yesterday. Oklahoma and Tampa Bay ruined the plays.

On the bright side, Faber won as I said. ( I'm actually a decent capper in UFC and had some other wagers that had nothing to do with hockey and were strictly UFC relate d.

On to today's games, we look to bounce back strongly.

Sincerely,

DNI Mourinho
 
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Posted: #2
There is no bright side, you lost both plays you posted. And as to the UFC capping, you just took the highest ML both nights. 

But BOL to ya today, All the NHL road teams are -130 or more faves so will look forward to at least a couple of these being in your parlays today. The Sharks should be a soo-in at -150, so where no one is -200 or more today, we are probably looking at +2 reverse puck lines today. Of course there should be some huge ML Futbol lines out there.  Maybe a nice -400 1st half under play. 

Not sure if you cap the NFL at all, but there are a number of -420 or more ML favorites you can throw in. Saints, Lions, Broncos and 49'ers.  Oh, a real gift for you is the Packers at -640 on Monday Night. 

Well BOL on your parlays today.

 
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Posted: #3
DNI - Been lurking your threads for quite some time.  Thx for sharing your insight into your plays.  

Although irrelevant, I personally don't agree with your system and prefer flat betting sides and treating prays like lottery tickets when I'm up $ but you sir are a special kind of crazy degen and I resect that.

Always curious to see how these cards play out.

Best of luck!
 
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Posted: #4
 This guy is a cross between Hilarious,demented,  weird,and ignorant. I honestly don't think he realizes  ONE  loss in a 5 team parlay means HE LOST HIS BET! Even if he won the other 4 games in his parlay,he thinks he went 4-1.His posts and comments from others are quite entertaining of late  I really think DNI thinks he is a legend in his own mind and  thinks he is a good capper. I would never  ever tail him,because anyone can take a -1500 fav and throw them in a parlay with 4 other -575 favs,but his excuses are definitely worth a chuckle  Instead of reading the sunday comics in the newspaper,go to the soccer forum and read his threads!
 
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Posted: #5
Quote Originally Posted by Lippsman:

There is no bright side, you lost both plays you posted. And as to the UFC capping, you just took the highest ML both nights. But BOL to ya today, All the NHL road teams are -130 or more faves so will look forward to at least a couple of these being in your parlays today. The Sharks should be a soo-in at -150, so where no one is -200 or more today, we are probably looking at +2 reverse puck lines today. Of course there should be some huge ML Futbol lines out there.  Maybe a nice -400 1st half under play. Not sure if you cap the NFL at all, but there are a number of -420 or more ML favorites you can throw in. Saints, Lions, Broncos and 49'ers.  Oh, a real gift for you is the Packers at -640 on Monday Night. Well BOL on your parlays today.


Hello Lippsman,

I pegged Faber when he was @ -450. He shot to -1000 right before fight? He was valuable in NHL parlay at early price and I called that correctly.

Today's game a in NHL are tough, all the favorites are on road, so we are bound to see a dog win today.

Some tough capping to do.

I'm on Mobile is it possible for someone to update my monetary value record? I know we are 13-9 now, and down -1500 from yesterday. Just want to be accurate heading into today.

Sincerely,

DNI Mourinho
 
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Posted: #6
Quote Originally Posted by Lippsman:

There is no bright side, you lost both plays you posted. And as to the UFC capping, you just took the highest ML both nights. But BOL to ya today, All the NHL road teams are -130 or more faves so will look forward to at least a couple of these being in your parlays today. The Sharks should be a soo-in at -150, so where no one is -200 or more today, we are probably looking at +2 reverse puck lines today. Of course there should be some huge ML Futbol lines out there.  Maybe a nice -400 1st half under play. Not sure if you cap the NFL at all, but there are a number of -420 or more ML favorites you can throw in. Saints, Lions, Broncos and 49'ers.  Oh, a real gift for you is the Packers at -640 on Monday Night. Well BOL on your parlays today.


I should open an MMA only thread for those plays strictly as I had Faber, Pettis and Browne tied together for EV.

Next time though.
 
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Posted: #7
Quote Originally Posted by DNI:



I should open an MMA only thread for those plays strictly as I had Faber, Pettis and Browne tied together for EV.

Next time though.

But this has nothing to do with losing your parlays yesterday.  You talk about all the wagers that did not lose, but it makes no difference, you play 5 and 6 game parlays one loss makes it a loser.

That's why if you continue to do 5 and 6 team teasers you will be negative at the end of the season here.  I hope you don't, but you will be if you don't change how you play. 

 
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Posted: #8
Quote Originally Posted by Lippsman:

Quote Originally Posted by DNI:

I should open an MMA only thread for those plays strictly as I had Faber, Pettis and Browne tied together for EV.Next time though.
But this has nothing to do with losing your parlays yesterday.  You talk about all the wagers that did not lose, but it makes no difference, you play 5 and 6 game parlays one loss makes it a loser.That's why if you continue to do 5 and 6 team teasers you will be negative at the end of the season here.  I hope you don't, but you will be if you don't change how you play.


That's true, I wouldn't have posted the mma here since it had nothing to do with NHL plays. I figured it would be frowned upon to post a pure 'other sport' parlay in NHL. I will look to do pure mma in that forum specifically.

Regarding NHL plays though, a season long review is probably going to be most telling. I don't know my exact calculation in NHL profit but I believe I'm still +$3,000 or so?
 
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Posted: #9
Quote Originally Posted by FilthyDegen:

DNI - Been lurking your threads for quite some time.  Thx for sharing your insight into your plays.  Although irrelevant, I personally don't agree with your system and prefer flat betting sides and treating prays like lottery tickets when I'm up $ but you sir are a special kind of crazy degen and I resect that.Always curious to see how these cards play out.Best of luck!


Thank you friend, your words of encouragement are appreciated! A season long review is best to reserve judgment on these plays.

Sincerely,

DNI Mourinho
 
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Posted: #10
Quote Originally Posted by collectNOW:

This guy is a cross between Hilarious,demented,  weird,and ignorant. I honestly don't think he realizes  ONE  loss in a 5 team parlay means HE LOST HIS BET! Even if he won the other 4 games in his parlay,he thinks he went 4-1.His posts and comments from others are quite entertaining of late  I really think DNI thinks he is a legend in his own mind and  thinks he is a good capper. I would never  ever tail him,because anyone can take a -1500 fav and throw them in a parlay with 4 other -575 favs,but his excuses are definitely worth a chuckle  Instead of reading the sunday comics in the newspaper,go to the soccer forum and read his threads!


I think it would be more comical if I took these parlay s for -250 or -300 odds. Yesterday was between -105 - 120 depending on your line.

I made my play, they lost but it wasn't a significant cut into the profit so far, just look at my record. Just some odd results like TB losing 0:3 late in third. Bobs played great yesterday and sometimes goalies steal the show and win games you don't expect a team to win.
 
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Posted: #11
I personally wish I could get back even half the $ I've lost on 5-6 team parlay lottery tickets or even spent a bit more betting on a round robin.
So many times I'm off by 1 and lose and that's why I treat them like jackpots when playing with the books $.
 
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Posted: #12
So DNI......you are 1-1 in DOCUMENTED mma fights,so what makes you an expert? I could say I went 5-0 in MMA last night,but DOCUMENTED bets are only on the report card. You lost a -575 MMA bet fri night,and won one DOCUMENTED fight last night,so if you were betting 1k per fight,you would be down bigtime. I'll let you do the math on that one when you are at your computer or posting from a traffic light.
 
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Posted: #13
Quote Originally Posted by collectNOW:

So DNI......you are 1-1 in DOCUMENTED mma fights,so what makes you an expert? I could say I went 5-0 in MMA last night,but DOCUMENTED bets are only on the report card. You lost a -575 MMA bet fri night,and won one DOCUMENTED fight last night,so if you were betting 1k per fight,you would be down bigtime. I'll let you do the math on that one when you are at your computer or posting from a traffic light.


I never play large juice straight up friend. I wouldn't ever lay 500 to win 100.

Yesterday Pettis was -275, Brown e -350 Faber -450 when bought him. This adds to nic parlay paying -108
 
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Posted: #14
Quote Originally Posted by collectNOW:

So DNI......you are 1-1 in DOCUMENTED mma fights,so what makes you an expert? I could say I went 5-0 in MMA last night,but DOCUMENTED bets are only on the report card. You lost a -575 MMA bet fri night,and won one DOCUMENTED fight last night,so if you were betting 1k per fight,you would be down bigtime. I'll let you do the math on that one when you are at your computer or posting from a traffic light.


That was pure mma why would I post that in NHL forum? It was distinct different wager not NHL related?
 
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Posted: #15
Quote Originally Posted by DNI:

But this has nothing to do with losing your parlays yesterday.  You talk about all the wagers that did not lose, but it makes no difference, you play 5 and 6 game parlays one loss makes it a loser.That's why if you continue to do 5 and 6 team teasers you will be negative at the end of the season here.  I hope you don't, but you will be if you don't change how you play.

That's true, I wouldn't have posted the mma here since it had nothing to do with NHL plays. I figured it would be frowned upon to post a pure 'other sport' parlay in NHL. I will look to do pure mma in that forum specifically.

Regarding NHL plays though, a season long review is probably going to be most telling. I don't know my exact calculation in NHL profit but I believe I'm still +$3,000 or so?

One final time I will try.  It does not make any difference how well your NHL plays do if you lose parlays with other sports in them. 

You are not making single wagers you are making one wager.  If you want to talk about how each wager does then play them as single wagers.  Also you just commented to CollectNOW about how it would be comical if you played a parlay for -250 or -300 odds.  Well it would be much better if you played a parlay of a few teams for that amount than playing 6 teams for -120 or so.

Vanzack can be a bit abrasive in his approach to you, but he is correct in his analysis.  When you add more teams to a parlay the more your risk is.  It makes no difference that -1500 is thrown in there.  In fact that -1500 fave only got you probably back an extra .+20 payback !!!

You should play less teams and have a higher -ML play. 

Now of course everyone here knows I would never advise this type of play.  But if you are hell bent on playing this way it's the best way to play.

Knock the ego down and take some advice from someone that actually does this on a professional level.  You see those 5 red stars at the top right of this post.  They are not there because of luck  

 
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Posted: #16
Hi Lippsman,

Of course it increases the risk, that's inherent in making that type of play, no? But the odds of each particular game are in your favor, are they not?. At least pre game, is that not correct?
 
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Posted: #17
Knock the ego down and take some advice from someone that actually does this on a professional level.  You see those 5 red stars at the top right of this post.  They are not there because of luck  
 
I don't pay too much attention to this thread, but I wonder why YOU bother with it at all Lipps - Isn't this DMI guy a waste of time?
Be the Hammer Not the Nail
 
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Posted: #18
Quote Originally Posted by Crazy_Train:

Knock the ego down and take some advice from someone that actually does this on a professional level.  You see those 5 red stars at the top right of this post.  They are not there because of luck  
 
I don't pay too much attention to this thread, but I wonder why YOU bother with it at all Lipps - Isn't this DMI guy a waste of time?

It seems that way Crazy, but I am here to help people out.  Some just don't have a clue or think their way is correct and this is where we all should come together and say hey, there is a better way and here is how.  I have always thought of the Pucks form as the best around and most helpful.

But I can see your point of view for sure. 

 
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Posted: #19
Quote Originally Posted by Crazy_Train:

Knock the ego down and take some advice from someone that actually does this on a professional level.  You see those 5 red stars at the top right of this post.  They are not there because of luck  
 
I don't pay too much attention to this thread, but I wonder why YOU bother with it at all Lipps - Isn't this DMI guy a waste of time?


The name is DNI Mourinho,
and nobody is a waste of time friend. We are all here to help each other succeed.
 
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Posted: #20

Thanks for the response.  I won't bother opening this thread anymore unless the comics are missing from my Sunday paper like collectNOW suggests

Here's my more than likely loser parlay today

PARLAY (3 TEAMS)
[3] DETROIT RED WINGS -1½+220
[5] VANCOUVER CANUCKS -1½+230 (TV:NHL)
[7] SAN JOSE SHARKS -1½+185

 

BOL DMI


25 / 669

Be the Hammer Not the Nail
 
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Posted: #21
Quote Originally Posted by DNI:

Hi Lippsman,

Of course it increases the risk, that's inherent in making that type of play, no? But the odds of each particular game are in your favor, are they not?. At least pre game, is that not correct?

DNI,

It appears that way if you just look at things in a linear point of view. But you have to think in the vein of "Any given day"  It's tough enough to win a few games a day, much less having to win 5 and 6 games.  Since you always play huge faves I will look at it from your POV. You think the huge fave has to win a prohibitive amount of the time, which should happen.  But does your wager take into account of 5 and 6 teams that has to win a prohibitive amount of the time.  

Now with that you have to add in what each player will have to do.  In the case of Oklahoma -1500 wager, did you even take into account that is was against Oklahoma St. ?  A huge rivalry game ?

Columbus won their last 2 games and were already in Florida from the Panthers game, so they had next to no travel.  Also in pucks a goaltender will steal a game no matter how bad the team is in front of them.  You put 5 or 6 NHL games together you can almost like clockwork, expect one goaltender to steal a game that shouldn't happen. 

Your MMA wagers, you are wagering on one person that does not have a team around them to help out if they have an off night.  They have an off night your whole parlay loses.

Thank about this, how does it feel to win 5 out of 6 games and still have a losing night.

Just think about that. 

 
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Posted: #22

The name is DNI Mourinho,

I know  - I SEE it every freakin day -  Sincerely, Crazy  Train -

GL friend  I don't think your thread is of any help to me. BOL though  

 I need a White Russian

Be the Hammer Not the Nail
 
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Posted: #23
Quote Originally Posted by Lippsman:


One final time I will try.  It does not make any difference how well your NHL plays do if you lose parlays with other sports in them. 

You are not making single wagers you are making one wager.  If you want to talk about how each wager does then play them as single wagers.  Also you just commented to CollectNOW about how it would be comical if you played a parlay for -250 or -300 odds.  Well it would be much better if you played a parlay of a few teams for that amount than playing 6 teams for -120 or so.

Vanzack can be a bit abrasive in his approach to you, but he is correct in his analysis.  When you add more teams to a parlay the more your risk is.  It makes no difference that -1500 is thrown in there.  In fact that -1500 fave only got you probably back an extra .+20 payback !!!

You should play less teams and have a higher -ML play. 

Now of course everyone here knows I would never advise this type of play.  But if you are hell bent on playing this way it's the best way to play.

Knock the ego down and take some advice from someone that actually does this on a professional level.  You see those 5 red stars at the top right of this post.  They are not there because of luck  

Rw
 
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Posted: #24

Quote Originally Posted by DNI:



I never play large juice straight up friend. I wouldn't ever lay 500 to win 100.

Yesterday Pettis was -275, Brown e -350 Faber -450 when bought him. This adds to nic parlay paying -108

You play large juice straight up every bet you make.

YOU LAID -575 ON THE FEMALE MMA FIGHTER THE OTHER NIGHT.

YOU LAID $840 ON HER TO WIN $145.

I know you don't understand this, and have trouble grasping math - but this is what you did.  It makes you feel better that you buried this wager in a parlay, but the truth is that you lay large juice like -500 every single bet you make.

To say you don't lay -500 straight up is so ridiculous it would be funny if not sad.

 

Support your local animal shelter. I am on twitter.
 
 
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Posted: #25

Here is a 4:30 video on betting big favorites in a parlay.

Why it is a bad idea, why it sounds great but really isn't.

Its math DNI.  Watch it.  Because I know you wont listen to me.  Listen to this guy.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=wHfDPriLoKI

Support your local animal shelter. I am on twitter.
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