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** DNI's Sunday NHL Pick ** - By DÑI Mourinho®

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Posted: #26
Gentlemen,

Have I not been profitable?
 
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Posted: #27
Quote Originally Posted by DNI:

Gentlemen,

Have I not been profitable?

In the very,very short term. 
 
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Posted: #28

I will try to explain this a different way.

Big favorites have big juice.  When you parlay 5 big favorites, you are compounding that big juice.

Assuming efficient markets, take the following two lines:

A:  -125 +115
B:  -125 -125

If you bet both A and B at -125, do they have the same EV?

NO!!!!

Because A has roughly a -120 chance of winning, and B has roughly a EV chance of winning....  If you bet these over the long term - even though they have the same odds - you will be more profitable betting A.

Now...

Lets take this to another level.  Lets look at big favorites like a -650 +450 wager.  Because the EV is somewhere (for the sake of argument) around +550, you are paying more juice than if it was closer to an even wager.

Now, you compound this high juice and -EV by betting 5 or 6 of them in a parlay - and you are progressively betting worse and worse... 

So when you bet a 5 team parlay that you think is -110, the EV value on that parlay is somewhere around 45%.  Think about that for a minute.  You are laying -110 on a 45% EV.

Have you been profitable you ask over 15 bets?  Who cares.  Insignificant.  You will go broke over the long haul because of what I explain above.  It is math.  Your sample size is ridiculously small, and math is against you here.

Video that also explains this: 

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=wHfDPriLoKI

Support your local animal shelter. I am on twitter.
 
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Posted: #29
Can we get a record update with the daily recap as you usually do. Also what will be the unexpected, unbelievable result that no one could ever have seen coming that led to your losing day.
 
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Posted: #30
Quote Originally Posted by torontoice:

Can we get a record update with the daily recap as you usually do. Also what will be the unexpected, unbelievable result that no one could ever have seen coming that led to your losing day.


I am not by a computer otherwise I'd recap friend.
 
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Posted: #31
Vanzack,

Tampa Bay was the right team to back last night, pre game. Their run of form covering +1.5 at home was near perfect.

Oklahoma ML losing on miracle pint return is just one of those things that happen in sports. It doesn't mean my wager was a bad wager when those things happen to occur.
 
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Posted: #32
I happened to be on the wrong side of a bad beat, but there was nothing flawed in the wagering method or analysis.
 
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Posted: #33
Quote Originally Posted by Lippsman:

Quote Originally Posted by DNI:

Hi Lippsman,Of course it increases the risk, that's inherent in making that type of play, no? But the odds of each particular game are in your favor, are they not?. At least pre game, is that not correct?
DNI,It appears that way if you just look at things in a linear point of view. But you have to think in the vein of "Any given day"  It's tough enough to win a few games a day, much less having to win 5 and 6 games.  Since you always play huge faves I will look at it from your POV. You think the huge fave has to win a prohibitive amount of the time, which should happen.  But does your wager take into account of 5 and 6 teams that has to win a prohibitive amount of the time.  Now with that you have to add in what each player will have to do.  In the case of Oklahoma -1500 wager, did you even take into account that is was against Oklahoma St. ?  A huge rivalry game ?Columbus won their last 2 games and were already in Florida from the Panthers game, so they had next to no travel.  Also in pucks a goaltender will steal a game no matter how bad the team is in front of them.  You put 5 or 6 NHL games together you can almost like clockwork, expect one goaltender to steal a game that shouldn't happen. Your MMA wagers, you are wagering on one person that does not have a team around them to help out if they have an off night.  They have an off night your whole parlay loses.Thank about this, how does it feel to win 5 out of 6 games and still have a losing night.Just think about that.

Very true. The only sustainable way of getting is one game per bet slip. The more games you put on a bet slip together, the bigger the chance of losing, however big favoutites they are. That's the way the cookie crumbles.
 
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Posted: #34
*betting
 
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Posted: #35
Quote Originally Posted by Radeque:

Quote Originally Posted by Lippsman:

Quote Originally Posted by DNI:

Hi Lippsman,Of course it increases the risk, that's inherent in making that type of play, no? But the odds of each particular game are in your favor, are they not?. At least pre game, is that not correct?
DNI,It appears that way if you just look at things in a linear point of view. But you have to think in the vein of "Any given day"  It's tough enough to win a few games a day, much less having to win 5 and 6 games.  Since you always play huge faves I will look at it from your POV. You think the huge fave has to win a prohibitive amount of the time, which should happen.  But does your wager take into account of 5 and 6 teams that has to win a prohibitive amount of the time.  Now with that you have to add in what each player will have to do.  In the case of Oklahoma -1500 wager, did you even take into account that is was against Oklahoma St. ?  A huge rivalry game ?Columbus won their last 2 games and were already in Florida from the Panthers game, so they had next to no travel.  Also in pucks a goaltender will steal a game no matter how bad the team is in front of them.  You put 5 or 6 NHL games together you can almost like clockwork, expect one goaltender to steal a game that shouldn't happen. Your MMA wagers, you are wagering on one person that does not have a team around them to help out if they have an off night.  They have an off night your whole parlay loses.Thank about this, how does it feel to win 5 out of 6 games and still have a losing night.Just think about that.
Very true. The only sustainable way of getting is one game per bet slip. The more games you put on a bet slip together, the bigger the chance of losing, however big favoutites they are. That's the way the cookie crumbles.


And yet I've still been profitable in this facet in my portfolio as my record indicates.

 
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Posted: #36
You keep playing huge juiced faves in parlays so your wagering is quite flawed and you appear not want any suggestions on how to play better. The run back for a TD us not a bad beat, you do realize there were around 80 other plays in that game. Saying that TB was near perfect shows everyone that you don't really cap, you just look at past scores and the highest ML's. Glad you are using Monopoly money. You will last longer.

Since you don't want any assistance and think you know what you are doing take care
 
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Posted: #37
Quote Originally Posted by Lippsman:

You keep playing huge juiced faves in parlays so your wagering is quite flawed and you appear not want any suggestions on how to play better. The run back for a TD us not a bad beat, you do realize there were around 80 other plays in that game. Saying that TB was near perfect shows everyone that you don't really cap, you just look at past scores and the highest ML's. Glad you are using Monopoly money. You will last longer.

Since you don't want any assistance and think you know what you are doing take care

Oklahoma having the ball with less than 3 minutes to go in game and then losing wasn't a bad beat?  

I get the Cbus factors, being in FLorida, etc, but if you could see Cbus coming, did you wager on Cbus -1.5?  
 
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Posted: #38
* DNI RECAP *

Gentlemen,

Let's recap the statistics to date:

11/24 :  -$1,207.20
11/25 : +$2,291.10
11/26 : +$1,575.10
11/27 : +$140.00
11/28 : - $1,003.80
11/29 : +$2,365.80
11/30 :  -$1,000.00 * Lost on an empty netter, but capped this one right.
12/1:  +$857.50
12/2:  +$1,401.40
12/3:  +$857.30
12/4:  -$2,000.01*  Shocked by 5 NJ Devils Goals vs. Tor
12/5:  +$35.10 *1-1, only lost MMA portion of play #2
12/6:  - $1544.28

This brings my total profit to +$2,768.01 with a 13-9 record.  Lastly, you all must remember that nobody is right 100% of the time, even as a professional.  Bad beats happen like last night, but in the long-run the bad beats even out.

We look to continue rolling along in NHL today, so stay tuned for my official DNI Mourinho play later today.

Sincerely,

DNI Mourinho®

Moving Bets, Not Losing Bets.™

https://i.imgur.com/ZJhOwBb.jpg

* Official Logo of DNI Mourinho *  
 
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Posted: #39
Quote Originally Posted by Lippsman:

You keep playing huge juiced faves in parlays so your wagering is quite flawed and you appear not want any suggestions on how to play better. The run back for a TD us not a bad beat, you do realize there were around 80 other plays in that game. Saying that TB was near perfect shows everyone that you don't really cap, you just look at past scores and the highest ML's. Glad you are using Monopoly money. You will last longer.

Since you don't want any assistance and think you know what you are doing take care

If you were to look at yesterday's thread, I explicitly stated that the 'weakest' link could be Oklahoma because of the motivation factor and that it's a rivalry game.  I knew this risk, I wasn't oblivious to it though Mr. Lippsman.
 
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Posted: #40
** DNI MOURINHO OFFICIAL PLAY - SUNDAY **

Ladies and Gentlemen,

I'm briefly at the computer so I have a chance to update the record and give my play in a nice format. 

Total profit to +$2,768.01 with a 13-9 record.  

I will likely have one more evening play, we will see.  Here's my current play.

PARLAY (4 TEAMS)

12/07/2014 @ 09:05 PM         NHL   

01. NHL - Alternative Lines (1)

[79577] SAN JOSE +1.5 -425 (SAN JOSE vrs EDMONTON: Alternative Lines)

12/07/2014 @ 03:05 PM         NHL   

02. NHL - Alternative Lines (2)

[79605] ANAHEIM +2-550 (ANAHEIM vrs WINNIPEG: Alternative Lines)

12/07/2014 @ 05:05 PM         NHL   

02. NHL - Alternative Lines (2)

[79608] CAROLINA +2-535 (DETROIT vrs CAROLINA: Alternative Lines)

12/07/2014 @ 07:05 PM         NHL   

13. NHL - Will there be overtime?

[79926] NO -450 (VANCOUVER vrs OTTAWA: Will there be overtime?)

1000.00           1117.80

 
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Posted: #41
As much as DNI lives on here,and although he always says he is not at his computer,we all know he is lurking either at the prison library,his moms desktop in the basement,or the company computer in the guard shack at his job. Since he cannot "remember" his record....I will update going into today. ..............DNI's total record is 13-9 with a profit of $2,768.01 BUT HE IS 1-5 in the last 3 days with A LOSS OF -$3,509.19
 
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Posted: #42
This guy makes my day. Never fails to make me laugh! Keep spending that trust fund money
 
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Posted: #43
Hahaha.
This guy reeks of general sharp.
The loooooong posts with the constant reminders of records, and the rubbish plays that are guess work based on terrible odds and previous matches.
To me whoever it is sitting behind a computer wants to have 1 great season, gain a solid following the slug amateurs for his hack plays the following season.
 
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Posted: #44
Quote Originally Posted by rivermonsterz:

Hahaha.This guy reeks of general sharp.The loooooong posts with the constant reminders of records, and the rubbish plays that are guess work based on terrible odds and previous matches.To me whoever it is sitting behind a computer wants to have 1 great season, gain a solid following the slug amateurs for his hack plays the following season.


Hello friend,

What does this even mean? I am an honest professional, I don't need money from any other source. I don't sell my plays, I don't intend to. I just help people and that's all.

Sincerely,

DNI Mourinho
 
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Posted: #45
Quote Originally Posted by vanzack:

Here is a 4:30 video on betting big favorites in a parlay.

Why it is a bad idea, why it sounds great but really isn't.

Its math DNI.  Watch it.  Because I know you wont listen to me.  Listen to this guy.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=wHfDPriLoKI


excellent video...always nice hearing somebody say the same things we have been saying repeatedly in a different way
 
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Posted: #46
Lippsman, 

       I felt exactly the same way as you and thought it was worth discussing this kind of thing, even if not for DNI in the end, for whoever may be reading it. Ultimately the guy is a child with his fingers in his ears shouting at the top of his lungs to avoid hearing anything. He thinks that his "amazing intuition" is more important than the math, when in reality he can still use his alleged intuition while making mathematically sound decisions, but he does not want to learn how, he does not even have the humility to consider that he may be doing something silly. Again and again (example after example) Vanzack and I have proven that it is not a matter of opinion, but a matter of mathematical fact, and still he does not care. 

The only sane conclusion that any of the witnesses to the exchanges could come to is that this man is here to troll the website, which is beyond apparent in my opinion, and all of his effort and energy is not for anything other then making a mess around here, and confusing a bunch of amateurs even further. Watch him dance around the discussion and then continue to put all of his effort towards attracting attention and controversy, which he is now doing so several other sites as well. He will find an ignorant fool here and there to come to his defense, because he is skillful enough at what he does, and well-spoken enough to dupe your average idiot. Like you I was under the impression this site was to help one another out, but the amount of effort that has gone into perpetuating this troll who offers nothing but deliberate misinformation is proving that to be a complete fallacy. 

Regardless, I respect your effort, and obviously completely agree with everything you have said in here...
 
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Posted: #47
Ducks up 3:2, looking decent shape on our first game.
 
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Posted: #48
Quote Originally Posted by zamigo6:

Lippsman,        I felt exactly the same way as you and thought it was worth discussing this kind of thing, even if not for DNI in the end, for whoever may be reading it. Ultimately the guy is a child with his fingers in his ears shouting at the top of his lungs to avoid hearing anything. He thinks that his "amazing intuition" is more important than the math, when in reality he can still use his alleged intuition while making mathematically sound decisions, but he does not want to learn how, he does not even have the humility to consider that he may be doing something silly. Again and again (example after example) Vanzack and I have proven that it is not a matter of opinion, but a matter of mathematical fact, and still he does not care. The only sane conclusion that any of the witnesses to the exchanges could come to is that this man is here to troll the website, which is beyond apparent in my opinion, and all of his effort and energy is not for anything other then making a mess around here, and confusing a bunch of amateurs even further. Watch him dance around the discussion and then continue to put all of his effort towards attracting attention and controversy, which he is now doing so several other sites as well. He will find an ignorant fool here and there to come to his defense, because he is skillful enough at what he does, and well-spoken enough to dupe your average idiot. Like you I was under the impression this site was to help one another out, but the amount of effort that has gone into perpetuating this troll who offers nothing but deliberate misinformation is proving that to be a complete fallacy. Regardless, I respect your effort, and obviously completely agree with everything you have said in here...


Mr. Zamigo,

You are welcome to disagree with my approach here. Why not wait the entire NHL season and let my record speak for itself? Why not give it a fair shake

Just because I have a different method doesn't mean it's wrong or not profitable. Perhaps some of the words you use against me above should apply to yourself and Mr. VanZack. There's more than one way to shear a sheep. There is more than one avenue to make money in this profession.

I am showing one avenue and I'm doing it in a way that is documented so everything is transparent.

Again you must realize that futbol and these NHL plays are separate entities so to speak. They are different tools in an arsenal of options to earn money in this profession.

To put on blinders and only advocate some mathematical approach is to completely disregard the intuitive and subjective nature of sport.

Sincerely,

DNI Mourinho
 
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Posted: #49
Quote Originally Posted by DNI:



Mr. Zamigo,

You are welcome to disagree with my approach here. Why not wait the entire NHL season and let my record speak for itself? Why not give it a fair shake

Just because I have a different method doesn't mean it's wrong or not profitable. Perhaps some of the words you use against me above should apply to yourself and Mr. VanZack. There's more than one way to shear a sheep. There is more than one avenue to make money in this profession.

I am showing one avenue and I'm doing it in a way that is documented so everything is transparent.

Again you must realize that futbol and these NHL plays are separate entities so to speak. They are different tools in an arsenal of options to earn money in this profession.

To put on blinders and only advocate some mathematical approach is to completely disregard the intuitive and subjective nature of sport.

Sincerely,

DNI Mourinho

WRONG

If by some miracle you were profitable by the end of the season it just means you would have been MORE profitable if you weren't screwing yourself over all along. You are entitled to do whatever you want but some good people are putting forth a lot of energy to help you and you don't have the humility to think about it for a few minutes even. Did you watch the video Vanzack posted?

This is not some mathematical approach anybody is advising, its just the fact of the matter. The books create the lines based on math, they make their profits based on math, all of the models they use are math, yet you think you on the other side can ignore math and beat them? You can use any handicapping approach you want, some people win betting favorites (some big favorites) some bet dogs, some bet pucklines, some bet totals, you can do any of those things, but the math is still the math, and the people who win usually take it into consideration. I'm not saying bet dogs or bet favorites or bet any which way, but the way you are wagering you are screwing yourself over and putting a massive tax on yourself that is destroying the probability of you coming out ahead.

If I paid you 90 cents for heads and you paid me a dollar for tails, who do you think will be ahead after 10,000 flips? This is essentially the game you are playing, which is why barring some miracle that I can't explain, you will be a loser by the end of the season, but best of luck to you.

 
 
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Posted: #50
Mr. Zamigo,

Not everything is scientific and mathematical in this world my friend.
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