Posted:
#1
stayed away last night and had a slight loss in CBB. I just didn't think there were too many plays that were on "our side" so I just trashed them all. I do like Friday a good bit though.
Record: 47-24-2 (don't have it broken down into ML and totals plays anymore)
Ducks vs. Devils
I don't like a total here, as I don't like the fact that the oddsmakers have put this game at 5.5. I do like New Jersey though, seeing as how they're shooting at 10.2% at home and 10.5% over their last 5, while only allowing 7.4% in their last 5. I think Brodeur gets the start and he's 5-1 L6 and i think this is a good spot for the devils playing against a ducks team whose only loss in their last 6 is at detroit.
Lean: Devils -130 small
Sharks vs. Canes
A side here is hard to pick, but I think the total is solid. I will say that I'm leaning on the sharks to win this one. I think it'll be a low scoring game, but I think the sharks will win 2-1 or 3-2. They're converting 40% of their PP's L5 while Carolina is allowing 30% in the same category L5. The only thing is that the sharks D hasn't been exactly strong lately, so I'm only thinking they scrape this one out.
Another play I like just from the statistical standpoint is the 1p under. This is why:
San Jose:
55 games total: 1p Goals For: 38, Against: 41.
Road Games -- 26 games total: 1p Goals For: 11, Against: 18
Carolina:
57 games total: 1p Goals For: 45, Against, 38
Home games -- 29 games total: 1p goals for: 20, Against: 15.
Lean: Sharks -140 small, u5.5 -130 medium, 1p u1.5 LARGE
Nashville vs. Detroit
You never fight fire with fire in sports betting. Nashville is pretty hot right now and the wings are hot at home. I think though, this is where detroit will fall, and at 135, nashville looks realllll good. BUT, I don't have the balls to play that. The under is at 5.5, which i do kind of like because I think we either see a tight, low scoring game (2-1), or a wings blowout (5-2). I'm really leaning on the under as I think nashville can play some solid D, but I don't think i have enough to back up that play, and this one is really up in the air.
Leans: u5.5 -125 small/none
Habs. vs Sabs
The habs don't have the record to display how well they've played in their last 5 honestly. they're converting 12.7% of their shots in their last 5, allowing 7.7%, and they're converting 26.7% of their PP opportunities. This is where people say "buffalo just got thrashed, they're going to come out more focused tonight". No. I think the Sabs have just lost interest in this season and are ready to get out. Besides that, they're really not shooting too well or keeping too many out of the net as of late, and as a +105 dog, I'm really liking the habs. They're rolling pretty well and I think they could net 4 or more in this game. Combine this with the Sabs' ability to score a couple and I think we'll see a 4-2 game here.
Leans: Habs +105 medium, o5 -130 large
Boston vs. Winnipeg
Recently, the Bruins have been almost laughable compared to what they've done earlier this season. Nobody really knows what in the world is going on with them. I'm not going to pay a -165 price on them, and I'm not paying the + number on he Jets either. I do think we have a huge advantage on the total though. I'm seeing o5.5 +120, which i think is a STEAL.
We'll start here: Winnipeg has been allowing their opponents to convert on 12.1% of their shots and 42.9% of their powerplays in their last 5 games. I know Boston hasnt been shooting too well recently, but they're converting almost 12% of their shots in road games and 22.5% of their PP's for the season. Couple that with Boston allowing 11.8% and Winnipeg shooting about 11% L5, and I think we see a game that could honestly hit double digits. Boston has to wake up sooner or later, and I think they do it here with a 4 or 5 to 3 or 4 win
Leans: o5.5 +120 LARGE
Colorado vs. Oil
Colorado and Edmonton are just two of my favorite teams to fade, but I can't fade them both here. This is a game where the stats don't tell me much and I'll just have to look at a little line movement. The over looks good to me at plus money, as does the Oil at - money. Both teams can score a few goals, but both teams can also forget which skate goes on which foot, so I'll probably stay away from that one and watch the ML line. I just like edmonton and their better conversion ratios.
Leans: Oil -135 medium
Final LEANS:
Small: Devils -130, San Jose -140, Preds/Wings u5.5 -125
Medium: SJ/Canes u5.5 -130, Habs +105, Oil -135
Large: Bruins/Jets o5.5 +120, Habs/Sabs o5 -130, Sharks/Canes 1p u1.5 -125
BOL. I'll post my final card around 4 PM EST.
0
playing the habs, sharks, preds tonight
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