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General Sharps 2014-2015 NHL Picks

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Posted: #601
Quote Originally Posted by gofor67:

Tip of the day for all bettors. Do your own homework, cap your own games and don't bet your hard earned money on someone else's picks. Advice is nice but when it comes down to my money I'll make my own decisions. Relying on someone to make you money is like listening to a banker. Banks are not in business to make you money, they're in business to make money for the bank.

Speak for yourself, I just started watching hockey while betting $1-$5 on Sharp's picks a few weeks ago so I'm gonna leave it to him for at least a year till I get the hang of this.  FUN sport!!  Just bought NHL Live Game Center so I'm definitely down after this bad weekend. 

Better luck tomorrow guys, thanks for the picks again GS.
 
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Posted: #602

Have a beer, have a few days off if need be.

After going up quite a substantial amount of units after 2 weeks, I have since lost about a quarter of my profit, a friend who follows another capper on twitter has also seen a week of marginal losses.

Luckily the season is young, most teams haven't even played 10 games yet.

In my opinion the most fruitful times for profit are ahead of us once we can start getting better reads on teams.

 
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Posted: #603

But I really think you should have tomorrow off general.

Big card tomorrow, I don't think its a wise idea to play it after the last few days, as you said no rush its a grind, take a breather, go for a walk, watch the royals beat the giants, read a book, just get the mind away from the betting for a few days.

 
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Posted: #604
Quote Originally Posted by gofor67:

Tip of the day for all bettors. Do your own homework, cap your own games and don't bet your hard earned money on someone else's picks. Advice is nice but when it comes down to my money I'll make my own decisions. Relying on someone to make you money is like listening to a banker. Banks are not in business to make you money, they're in business to make money for the bank.


I disagree, there is nothing wrong with taking General's bets pick by pick. There is a reason why he makes the bets he does and he has 20+ years of experience watching and being profitable off this sport.

I don't really get why people are bitching and whining on this thread. General told us from the beginning that it is a long season and that there will be winning and losing sessions.

If you followed General's advice from the beginning then you should have nothing to complain about. Pick a bankroll that isn't going to be end of the world if its lost and flat bet 1% of that bankroll on every pick. I've done that, and everyone else that has done that is sitting pretty right now.

General doesn't owe anybody anything. He takes time out of his day to help us make money so show some respect and gratitude. Ultimately, everybody is responsible for there own bank account. Quit acting like babies.
 
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Posted: #605
The law of large numbers applies to repeatable experiments like flipping a coin or rolling a pair of dice. It does not apply to capping sports games. 

As an example, a found a covers capper who finished the 2012-13 hockey tournament up over 114 units in over 1500 picks with an impressive return per bet of 7%. If you interpret this as a uniform binomial random variable, the sample set is definitely large enough to guarantee that another similar sized sample of that random variable would be between 6% and 8%. However, in the following season, the same capper finished down about 9 units. 

At the very least, it takes a concerted effort to cut down on the variability in sports betting enough that you can count on your results to converge. It's not guaranteed and may not even be possible. 

I get your desire to help the good folks of covers make money, but you have made some very aggressive claims on this thread that practically guarantee victory. I hope you can back it up by the time the season ends. I sure would not want it on my conscience. But then I have only been running my systems for a few months and have no confidence in them whatsoever. Maybe things will be different in 20+ years. 

Either way, it may be a good idea to manage the expectations of your devoted followers beyond just recommending that they have a big bankroll. 
 
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Posted: #606
You guys are idiots.bet 1 to 3 % of your bankroll and you can sustain a losing streak with no problem.
 
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Posted: #607
Kids who are whining about 30 bucks should just simply stay away from sports betting. This is how it works, a risky investment, not some ez allowance from your family, otherwise everybody would be rich. I feel sorry for the good folks who are putting their own time and effort to help others make some sweet money to suffer from this kind of unreasonable pressure.
 
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Posted: #608

Hi General, Thx for all your work and posting , I have followed the baseball and came over to nhl now. Baseball turned out not to good, you never had final totals but on the lines that I got it was a losing experience, Nhl is now not going well, BUT I KNOW YOU WILL TURN IT AROUND, IGNORE THE STUPID COMMENTS, BUT IF IT DOES FINALLY GET TO YOU AND YOU MOVE ON SOMEWHERE ELSE PLEASE LET ME KNOW.

You are a 1st class guy and I thank you again good luck moving forward   Pete upstate ny

 
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Posted: #609
Quote Originally Posted by Rack_Em1:

General,

I started following you about a week ago after doing some research. I am in college and looking for some extra money, just doing 30 dollar units and figured this would help if i stayed disciplined. This cold streak is absolutely killing me and I cannot afford to keep this streak going. Please General I am begging you to try and get this going again. I cannot afford to keep losing but I cannot afford to stop at this point. I know it isn't your intention and it is all about the long run but some of us were not fortunate to be on at the begining. I stayed within what i thought were my limits like you said but I never envisioned anything like this.....

 
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Posted: #610

 Hey Sharp! Dramatic thread: Cultist, honey, vinegar, clueless tailers, pied-pipers, pensioners, college students, crusaders, pretenders, azzholes, bottom feeders, amateurs, professionals, novice commentary, experienced commentary, virtualizers, monopoly money players, $10 wagers, $30 unit players, it's all here fellas, enjoy the entertainment. follow at your own discretion, nobody is twisting your arm, or shoving a broomstick up your azz to tune in. are you brain dead? or unable to contribute NHL knowledge on an intellectual handicapping level?  this is an open forum where opinion is valued, bashing is not, just simply "go somewhere else" and play. take your commentary with you. please by all means General; continue, you comprehend loss, and know how to deal with it, others (with negative commentary) are lost in concept, and have no understanging what integrity means.

lets talk Reverse-PuckLine plays

 
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Posted: #611
Quote Originally Posted by fxbrassard:

All of this non-sense in this thread has to stop.

Kids, you cannot gamble money you can't afford to lose. That's rule #1. Rule #2 is if you gamble, you're gonna have losing stretchs. In any kind of gambling. 

All I see here is a bunch of child whining because we have been running bad. No one is forcing you to tail General here. If you can't afford to have a little downswing you shouldn't be here to begin with. 
 
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Posted: #612
Quote Originally Posted by gofor67:

Tip of the day for all bettors. Do your own homework, cap your own games and don't bet your hard earned money on someone else's picks. Advice is nice but when it comes down to my money I'll make my own decisions. Relying on someone to make you money is like listening to a banker. Banks are not in business to make you money, they're in business to make money for the bank.
your money, your mind.....couldn't agree with you more, is their any other way? valued commentary
 
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Posted: #613
Can someone explain how the Maple Leafs (3-4-1) are -220 vs the Sabers (2-7) on Tuesday?  I realize Buffalo is a bad team but the line seems a little high for a team of Toronto's caliber. 
 
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Posted: #614
Never outsource your thinking.  If you do, quit whining. It's a long season.  I'm a winning NFL capper who loves puck and is looking to learn to bet it profitably.  Knowing the length of the season and the amount of possible plays I began following along with between half and a quarter unit of my typical NFL play.  

Let's get back to the grind. Thank you for your time and insights General.  
 
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Posted: #615
Sports network
Well said, way to much bull crap in here. If you don't like the picks don't pick them. Don't complain when they fall short. You don't hear a word when the Gen is winning. Stay committed sharp, it will come around. As far as all the crap, you guys should pick your own tickets. It's a long season stay the course and I am sure we will have another winning season as previously said money management. You don't see the general getting excited.

Keep posting general there is a lot of us inherently who follow and appreciate your efforts.
Here's to many winning nights ahead
 
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Posted: #616


Sunday's Results:
WAS@VAN OVER 5.5 2.13 (+113) - WIN $213
CHI PL -1.5 2.58 (+158) - LOSE $100
COL ML 1.89 (-112) - LOSE $100
CLB@LAK TIE 3.97 (+297) - LOSE $100
ANA@SJ TIE 4.01 (+301) - LOSE $100

Monday's Results:
MIN@NYR UNDER 5 2.03 (+103) - LOSE $100
MIN@NYR TIE 3.81 (+281) - LOSE $100
MTL ML 1.71 (-140) - LOSE $100

Overall cost of bets: $800
Overall winnings: $213
Overall profit: -$587



2014-2015 NHL Season Record to Date: 40W - 45L

Starting Bankroll: $10,000
Current Bankroll: $10,497

Total Profit in $: +$497
Total Profit in Units: +4.97 units


Thus far in the 2015 NHL season, overall profit is +4.97 Units
 
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Posted: #617
First off, thanks to sportsnetwork, rivermonsterz, jg11, bizzaro, mother, peter, bonfire, fish, itsupforgrabs, and many others for the support.

After a horrible week, the funny part about all this is after 95 plays this season, and a going 1-7 last two nights, I have still provided a profit of 4.97 units. Now it's not a lot, but it's still profit over the first 3 weeks of the season.

If people follow my bankroll management strategy, there really is nothing to be upset about. I cannot win every night. If you go big on plays and lose, and don't follow the procedure outlined, you will go broke.

I will be back in a few hours with tonight's plays once I get confirmation on starting goalies.


 
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Posted: #618
Quote Originally Posted by magyarsvensk:

The law of large numbers applies to repeatable experiments like flipping a coin or rolling a pair of dice. It does not apply to capping sports games. 

As an example, a found a covers capper who finished the 2012-13 hockey tournament up over 114 units in over 1500 picks with an impressive return per bet of 7%. If you interpret this as a uniform binomial random variable, the sample set is definitely large enough to guarantee that another similar sized sample of that random variable would be between 6% and 8%. However, in the following season, the same capper finished down about 9 units. 

At the very least, it takes a concerted effort to cut down on the variability in sports betting enough that you can count on your results to converge. It's not guaranteed and may not even be possible. 

I get your desire to help the good folks of covers make money, but you have made some very aggressive claims on this thread that practically guarantee victory. I hope you can back it up by the time the season ends. I sure would not want it on my conscience. But then I have only been running my systems for a few months and have no confidence in them whatsoever. Maybe things will be different in 20+ years. 

Either way, it may be a good idea to manage the expectations of your devoted followers beyond just recommending that they have a big bankroll. 

You misunderstood me, I was referring to gamblers fallacy with regards to the law of large numbers.

I never guaranteed anything, just stated that I have never lost money betting NHL each season. If you read the entire thread, you would see that I have told many people not to trust my word, but to judge my results over the year and bet accordingly.
 
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Posted: #619
Quote Originally Posted by Bizarro:

Can someone explain how the Maple Leafs (3-4-1) are -220 vs the Sabers (2-7) on Tuesday?  I realize Buffalo is a bad team but the line seems a little high for a team of Toronto's caliber. 

So take the Sabres... You probably won't, and that's why the line is so high.
 
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Posted: #620

your up $500........and that's all that counts; the rest is BS

have a prosperous evening of NHL action, anything coming up on the RPL?

 
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Posted: #621
Quote Originally Posted by searrss:

Quote Originally Posted by Bizarro:

Can someone explain how the Maple Leafs (3-4-1) are -220 vs the Sabers (2-7) on Tuesday?  I realize Buffalo is a bad team but the line seems a little high for a team of Toronto's caliber. 
So take the Sabres... You probably won't, and that's why the line is so high.


So I'm kinda new to NHL wagering and trying to understand the logic behind the lines. I keep hearing that Buffalo sucks but they have managed to win 2 games and Toronto is only 3-4-1. What drives -220 price? Looking for some basic insight so I can learn how these games are handicapped. Thanks!
 
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Posted: #622
Quote Originally Posted by Bizarro:

Can someone explain how the Maple Leafs (3-4-1) are -220 vs the Sabers (2-7) on Tuesday?  I realize Buffalo is a bad team but the line seems a little high for a team of Toronto's caliber. 

The books look at more than just the first 8 games of the season. The Leafs are underperforming so far this season. 
 
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Posted: #623
Be a general and march your troops to victory
 
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Posted: #624
Quote Originally Posted by sports_Network:

your money, your mind.....couldn't agree with you more, is their any other way? valued commentary




 
 
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Posted: #625
General, Do you bet Point Spread on Pro line ?
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