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General Sharps 2014-2015 NHL Picks

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Posted: #676
Nice picks yesterday General.

I've seen you post a few picks before the line of the game was available, and yesterday some of the tie picks you made, even tho they hit, had some pretty horrible odds.

I'm just wondering how big a factor does the line play into your picks? I always thought it was the most important thing... but you just seem to cap the game with your model, and make the picks you are certain of no matter what the odds are, am I missing something?


 
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Posted: #677
Quote Originally Posted by fxbrassard:

Nice picks yesterday General.

I've seen you post a few picks before the line of the game was available, and yesterday some of the tie picks you made, even tho they hit, had some pretty horrible odds.

I'm just wondering how big a factor does the line play into your picks? I always thought it was the most important thing... but you just seem to cap the game with your model, and make the picks you are certain of no matter what the odds are, am I missing something?


I don't look at lines. I bet on plays I believe that will win and have value. 

Where have you seen better tie odds than Pinnacle? Please don't say local. Provide me with online sites because I have looked and never see better tie odds than Pinnacle.
 
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Posted: #678
Today's Plays: Wed October 29th, 2014: All lines are from Pinnacle Sports at the time of post.

NAS ML 1.88 (-113)

Just one play today. Good luck guys.
 
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Posted: #679
I could PM you where I find better odds for ties, that is when my PMs start working. Don't know why I can't access them. I can't say on a public site because they would most likely adjust then.

It is a very interesting strategy you are taking. Coming from a poker background, I must say I am very impressed that you've been able to book 20 straights winning years (and I believe you - you don't strike me as the liar type) without looking at odds. 

Congrats, and thanks for the picks. :)
 
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Posted: #680
Quote Originally Posted by fxbrassard:

I could PM you where I find better odds for ties, that is when my PMs start working. Don't know why I can't access them. I can't say on a public site because they would most likely adjust then.

It is a very interesting strategy you are taking. Coming from a poker background, I must say I am very impressed that you've been able to book 20 straights winning years (and I believe you - you don't strike me as the liar type) without looking at odds. 

Congrats, and thanks for the picks. :)

I don't really understand what you mean. I do look at odds, but I don't make picks based off them. What I do is cap a game, and determine a result I think will occur. I then set the price I would pay. I then compare my price to the sports books. If I like the price being offered, I make a bet. If I don't, I pass. 

What do you mean by the site will change odds if you post it?  
 
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Posted: #681
Lots of people are tailing your picks, and the book I make my ties bet at have much higher odds than the best sportsbook (pinnacle) for ties. if people start pounding money on those lines I have no doubt they will adjust them closer to pinnacle.

I think 2-3 days ago, you posted 2 picks before the lines were posted. One was Ottawa moneyline and another one was an over\under. That's the only reason I asked those questions.

You certainly are doing it right. 

Don't like Washington tonight?
 
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Posted: #682
Quote Originally Posted by fxbrassard:

Lots of people are tailing your picks, and the book I make my ties bet at have much higher odds than the best sportsbook (pinnacle) for ties. if people start pounding money on those lines I have no doubt they will adjust them closer to pinnacle.

I think 2-3 days ago, you posted 2 picks before the lines were posted. One was Ottawa moneyline and another one was an over\under. That's the only reason I asked those questions.

You certainly are doing it right. 

Don't like Washington tonight?

Well I am flattered but you give me too much credit. I doubt I could influence line movement. 

I passed on the game because I didn't like the price WAS was getting.
 
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Posted: #683
Thanks for the winner tonight, Sharp. Stay hot my friend! 
 
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Posted: #684

I thought you would have all over Det vs Was O5.5. The game was a toss up as these 2 teams have played to OT games the last 3 times they have met since Det moved into the East. All 3 games being high scoring. Chances of 4 in a row OT was slim but the way these two teams have been scoring lately I thought Over was a safe bet.

Thanks again for the winning pick! Big balls to pick Nas after the last 4 games Edm have had at home.
 
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Posted: #685
Thanks guys. NAS was a solid pick. I didn't have any other definitive pick so I had to pass. Never push the action.

NAS ML 1.88 (-113) - WIN $188

Overall cost of bets: $100
Overall winnings: $188
Overall profit: +$88




2014-2015 NHL Season Record to Date: 45W - 47L

Method: Flat betting Single picks 1 Unit ($100)


Starting Bankroll: $10,000
Current Bankroll: $11,307

Total Single Bet Profit in $: +$1307
Total Single Bet Profit in Units: +13.07 units


Thus far in the 2014-2015 NHL season, overall single bet profit is +13.07 Units

Parlay record is 0W-1L, -$100, -1 Unit



Back in a few hours with tonights plays.
 
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Posted: #686
Today's Plays: Thursday October 30th, 2014 - All lines are from Pinnacle Sports at the time of post. 

Big night. 8 single bets, 1 parlay.

Single Bets:
BOS PL -1.5 2.28 (+128)
LAK@PIT TIE 4.01 (+301)
TB ML 1.64 (-155)
PHI@TB OVER 5.5 1.87 (-114)
FLA ML 1.98 (-102)
ANA ML 2.05 (+105)
NYI@COL OVER 5.5 1.79 (-126)
MTL ML 2.14 (+114)


Parlay:
BOS ML 1.40 (-244)
PHI@TB OVER 5.5 1.87 (-114)
ANA ML 2.05 (+105)
Payout: 5.36:1, +436
Bet $100 to win $536, $436 profit

*If you have a small bankroll, stick to the singles. If you have a large roll, and can absorb the added variance then go ahead and bet the parlay. You can also reduce the amount bet on any parlays I post to 10% of 1 unit. It's really up to you. The key is to bet within your means.  

Good luck guys.
 
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Posted: #687
 
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Posted: #688
interesting 3 play
 
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Posted: #689
PHI@TB OVER is 6 at 5dimes.  Bummer.
 
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Posted: #690
It looks like the line makers are catching up in reference to totals... Seems like this year has been very high scoring and they are adjusting accordingly. Both of your overs are at 6 with my book. No reason not to play them though; you need 6 to win and still at least a push for me at 6.... I don't mind kissing my sister when it comes to gambling.
 
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Posted: #691
 
 
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Posted: #692
Good luck tonight
 
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Posted: #693
worried about boston at buffalo. Boston is hurting with injuries and playing the backup (not that he is bad he is just not Rask)

although buffalo is awful i bet they get 2 or 3 tonight and that might be all they need. if they get 2 boston is not going to cover the PL.

Lets make some $$

BOL tonight guys!
 
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Posted: #694
Avalanche game is pure joke, NYI has 35 shots and no goal??? on the other hand, 19/4, crazy
 
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Posted: #695
Half the games on the board ended in a tie tonight.  Wish we played more ties today.
 
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Posted: #696
Quote Originally Posted by SFGiants93:

Half the games on the board ended in a tie tonight.  Wish we played more ties today.

Right, let's look at the day's results and wish we had made our picks that way!
 
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Posted: #697
Quote Originally Posted by Motherflickee:


Right, let's look at the day's results and wish we had made our picks that way!

lets go "back to the future"

spot on, we could have played more ties today, this could have been 2 ties, 3, 4 or 5, even then, we still may have never hit one, 50% of the games going to ties in one day happens, but infrequently.

It's easy to say we should have bet Buffalo vs San Jose the other day at ridiculously great odds because they did the job last year and surely were going to win eventually, but we didn't, so we move on, still with a good profit so far for the season and don't lament on what could have been, because when we look at what is, we smile.

 
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Posted: #698
Not a good night. Close on NYI@COL Over and MTL. The positive I am taking from most
of the losses this year is when I lose, it's very close most of the time. Moving along.


Single Bets:
BOS PL -1.5 2.28 (+128) - LOSE $100
LAK@PIT TIE 4.01 (+301) - LOSE $100
TB ML 1.64 (-155) - WIN $164
PHI@TB OVER 5.5 1.87 (-114) - WIN $187
FLA ML 1.98 (-102) - WIN $198
ANA ML 2.05 (+105) - LOSE $100
NYI@COL OVER 5.5 1.79 (-126) - LOSE $100
MTL ML 2.14 (+114) - LOSE $100


Parlay:
BOS ML 1.40 (-244) - WIN
PHI@TB OVER 5.5 1.87 (-114) - WIN
ANA ML 2.05 (+105) - LOSE
Payout: 5.36:1, +436
Bet $100 to win $536, $436 profit

LOSS - Lose $100


Overall cost of single bets: $800
Overall winnings: $549
Overall profit: -$251, 2.51 Units

1 unit loss on parlay









2014-2015 NHL Season Record to Date: 48W - 52L

Method: Flat betting Single picks 1 Unit ($100)


Starting Bankroll: $10,000
Current Bankroll: $11,056

Total Single Bet Profit in $: +$1156
Total Single Bet Profit in Units: +10.56 units


Thus far in the 2014-2015 NHL season, overall single bet profit is +10.56 Units



Parlay record is 0W-2L, -$200, -2.00 Units
 
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Posted: #699
Today's Plays: Friday October 31st, 2014 - All lines are from Pinnacle sports at the time of post.

TOR@CLB - OVER 5.5 1.89 (-111)
NAS ML 1.83 (-120)

Parlay both singles as well 1 unit. 
TOR@CLB OVER 5.5
NAS ML
3.45:1, +245

Goodluck guys. Have a safe and happy halloween. 
 
 
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Posted: #700
Really close to big payday General, Thanks again for all your help.

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