Here's something I wish I had learned......one day earlier

Yesterday I dropped a lot of dough on Game 6 and could not have been more wrong about the way I expected things to go.

Normally a road team looking to clinch a series in Game 6 does exactly that. The Panthers accomplished that in the second round when they closed out the Bruins in Game 6 at TD Garden in Boston.

The Panthers, after having their Tuesday night Cup-clinching party canceled by losing a Game 5 at home that they were widely expected to win, figured to leave any feelings of overconfidence behind and get the job done on the road in Game 6. Hoisting the Cup was their immediate goal, but they had another one that was also critical. I've long believed that the reason visting teams often clinch in Game 6 is because their motivation to AVOID a potentially DISASTROUS loss in Game 7 is off the charts. In other words, as much as the home team in Game 6 is motivated to stay alive and force a Game 7, the visiting team is even more motivated to have nothing to do with what for them will be a pressure-packed Game 7. And you can't put yourself under more pressure than by winning the first 3 games of a series and then losing the next three.

So, I bet on the Panthers. Then I watched something happen that none of us had ever seen before. Not in our lifetimes have any of us witnessed a team go up 3 games to none in the Stanley Cup Final, NBA Finals, or World Series only to lose the next three games and be forced to play a Game 7. This has never happened in any World Series and this has never happened in the NBA Finals. It has happened once in the Stanley Cup Final, but it happened eighty-two freakin' years ago and none of us saw it happen.

Then, shortly after the Oilers finished kicking Florida's ass, I learned something I wished I had learned one day earlier. It turns out it was a grave mistake to get in the way of this Oilers locomotive, and here's why...

By now most of us are aware that the Oilers didn't begin their season with Kris Knoblauch as their head coach. Jay Woodcroft was their coach, and under him they began the season in a complete tailspin. They actually lost their first five home games, and on November 12th they fired him when the Oilers stood at 3-9-1 on the season.

Under Knoblauch, the Oilers won two games in a row but then lost their next three. What followed was an 8-game winning streak that lifted their record over .500. But then they again lost three games in a row. What followed then astounded the entire league. The Oilers won their next sixteen games, a streak that took them right up to the All-Star break.

In late February, the Oilers again suffered a 3-game losing streak. A 5-game winning streak immediately followed. The Oilers never lost three games in a row again until more than 100 days later when they lost Games 1, 2, and 3 to these Panthers.

If I had known about the remarkable way in which this Kris Knoblauch-led Oilers team has responded to the indignity of losing a mere three games in a row, I would never have doubted their resolve going into Game 6. These guys are doing it again. They follow 3-game losing streaks with long winning streaks, and there appears to be no stopping them now. 

There's another thing I heard about prior to Game 6 that I dismissed without much thought, and I paid for that. Oilers goalie Stuart Skinner went 4-8 in these playoffs in Games 1-3. But in Games 4-7, he was a perfect 9-0, and after another excellent performance last night he is now 10-0. Anyone wanna get in the way of that on Monday night? I don't!

So what’s the play MrB?

The Oilers allowed only 13 goals during their 8-game winning streak that lasted from just after Thanksgiving to mid-December. They allowed just 24 goals during their 16-game winning streak. They allowed just 7 goals during their 5-game winning streak in late February/early March. And over the last three games they've allowed just 5 goals. Amazing numbers.

https://www.thescore.com/nhl/news/2929543

It's apparent the whole country thinks Edmonton wins game 7 in Florida, and I would agree they have taken the momentum away from Florida. This has been an outstanding series, and both teams are deserving champs. Game 7 should be a real beauty. What team will "Set the Tone" in game 7? 

@MrBator

 Nice write up brother.

Very much agree.  While before the series this appeared to be a coin flip depending largely on Bob's / Skinner.  I didn't buy the bigger methodical wear down theory.

So when Edmonton dominated from 10 seconds in on the turnover and missed, Florida got every bounce the first two games and Bob's was sharp.

The series turned in game 3 when they shoveled some coal and got that locomotive going.  While they came up short Florida and Bob's were shell shocked.

Game 6, stats had gone out and the series became about feel and there wasn't much to suggest backing Florida.

However, interesting to me is that the 3-0 lead is now blown, it happened.  I think a professional mindset won't dwell and know they have 1 game left.  I think it'll be natural to see a more relaxed FL team at home and it'll actually be Edmonton who tightens up a little trying to pull off the impossible.

That being said, I think this is a game to avoid or put small amount either way.

@unplucked_gem

 Don’t know how Florida can relax when oilers are constantly attacking. Florida can’t  even keep puck on offensive side when oilers are in penalty. If Edmonton takes the lead early it’s going be tough  for Florida

@MrBator

Always great insight and analysis by MrBator! You are a great covers forum contributor. 

Panthers will get it done everyone and their brother on the Oilers 

@Pho-20

 ??.  Florida cannot give up the first goal that for sure.

When I said relax I mean not worry about choking, cause they already did.  So it should be easier to focus on letting it all out there is a best of 1.

Didn’t the Yankees go up 3-0 in World Series only to lose in 7 to the Res Sox about 20 years ago?

Didn’t the Yankees go up 3-0 in World Series only to lose in 7 to the Res Sox about 20 years ago?

@Puckhandler

The Yankees and Red Sox… in the World Series…

@Puckhandler

The Yankees and Red Sox… in the World Series…

@Puckhandler

 To win the Pennant not WS title, 2004. Believe that was BB big error year.

It has happened in earlier rounds in hockey, 4 times, last time was 2014 with Kings over San Jose in first round. This is first time in finals.

As you figured out by now Boston and Yankees can not play in WS against each other.

Finals going the way of the Oilers reg. season: crap early on turning into gold later on.

nice post. no one has mentioned the conditioning factor. canucks had the oilers on the ropes but ran out of gas.

by far the best conditioned team with the most stamina is the oilers. it is like every other team has

dead batteries while oilers somehow keep recharging. oilers have gotten better since the vancouver series.

some players on the oil can be prone to turnovers but only if pressured. fla has quit skating and

it makes the oilers seem way better than they are. not sure if this time off has helped the panthers 

but it is hard to play on the panthers with a lower line offered at home than previous games.

Good stuff.  I don't think it matters but the Oil are 0-5 after their last 3 game win streaks.  3 of them in playoffs but 2 were Game 1s after a long rest.  Could the Panthers be running out of gas playing an extra month of hockey last year than the Oil?  I do not get the Panthers slow starts this series.  I think the Oil have dominated the 1st period in the series.  Scoring periods like rounds in boxing I'd score Game 6 10-7 Oil in 1st, 10-8 Oil in 2nd and 9-10 Panthers in 3rd.  Was shocked to see how much better the Oil looked in 1st 2 periods last game.  But yet it was just 2 mistakes and centimeters away from a Panthers win.  The turnover in 1st and the botched line change in 2nd both led to goals scored off the rush. 

First of all definitely give major value to the Red Sox vs Yanks in 2004, they’re huge rivals, the Red Sox had to win both game 6/7 on the road and the Yanks had their number including a walk off game 7 the year before. No one had rallied in any  mlb series like that! 

But by the time game 7 came the Yanks were scared and never had a chance. Bobrosky definitely looks scared, letting in bad angle goals. 
The Panthers forechecking is not working any more, the Oilers power plays are both deadly.. These changes are very hard to fix, it’s not a lucky Carlton Fisk homer.. 

If the Panthers had won a Cup before I could see that helping them figure this out like the 2002 Lakers beating Sacramento in game 7 on the road. But no they have not. Then you’re facing a game changing generational leader. 

I’m hedging my series bet, Oilers get it done