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Lawton's Projections

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Posted: #301
your looking solid L1
 
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Posted: #302
I have FAITH in you LAWTON1..thanks for sharing your plays....I wish you nothing but the best of luck
 
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Posted: #303
Thanks guys, u should have just cashed Wisconsin Over 44, moving to 4-1 on the day... 
 
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Posted: #304
Should be cashing the FAU -4.5, pushing to a 5-1 day... Three tonight..
 
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Posted: #305
Good job Lawton1.  Thanks. Go Flyers, who I hate.
 
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Posted: #306

Question can you calculate juice of wager? It has to be based on winners and losers no? 

 
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Posted: #307
Probability System
92-66 (+20.35 units)
58.23% Winners
(-108) average juice
1 unit each

NHL: 38-24 (+11.85 units)
NFL: 12-9 (+2.50 units)
CFB: 19-15 (+2.60 units)
CBB: 2-0 (+2.00 units)
MLB: 9-6 (+3.10 units)
NBA: 12-12 (-1.70 units)

Sunday November 12

Jets (-120) NFL Money line

There will be another release later today, check back to follow along.

I don't understand the question above about juice, if I do not list the juice on each wager, assume its a standard (-110)

I've used models with each sport for several years now, my win %%% always hovered around 55% (longterm) which was good but not good enough for me... I added Probability and Advanced Forecasting to the equation and started this thread.. Hopefully we are now going to raise the Longterm win %%% to 57.14%... Time will surely tell.

Check back later for the full card for Sunday..
 
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Posted: #308

BOL Lawton!!

an_cheers

 
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Posted: #309
Good stuff!

Do you do this full time or just as a hobby/side income
 
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Posted: #310

Quote Originally Posted by jaybucko:

If you disagree why are you constantly in his thread begging for his plays to be released?

I wasn't disagreeing with Lawton first off. Second, can one not disagree and still follow their bets? Third, begging? 

 

 
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Posted: #311

What I was wondering is if calculating juice based on wager is correct when you only pay juice if you lose. For instance I bet a game -120 and another +100. Average juice -110. But if I win the +100 and lose the -120. My juice is -120. If I win both then there was no juice. I'm probably missing something. Not questioning you just enjoy math and think you might be in the same boat.

 

As always thank you for sharing your picks I have been tailing since the beginning. Started at 10$ now at 100$. Happy there for now.

 
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Posted: #312
I enjoy doing this as a side source of income. No need for me to do this full time. I am making quite a bit of money these days but I don't need it to pay the bills. I believe in various streams of income.  

I am fascinated with math and numbers, I watch very little of the games, don't need to. I am not a handicapper, I only look at injuries, extreme weather conditions, other than that, I use my programs for each sport. I also use probability  and advanced forecasting to solidify picks.  Call them the last of the filters, if you will.  

My passion is to create a Super System that can hit 57.14% or better, against a (-110) line, over about 105 plays per month, for a year average.  If I can accomplish this, I can write my own paycheck.  

Sunday's full card will be released soon.  
 
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Posted: #313
J.E.T.S jets jets jets!!! bol lawton
 
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Posted: #314
If your going to follow the plays.  I suggest following all of them and flat betting all for around 2.5% of your bankroll, recslculating the wager every 3 months.  

And remember this, if I'm truly correct in my work, everything will regress and progress to the 57.14% area, that is Overall record, as well as the record for individual sports.  

I hope to show you work in this thread, that you have not seen before.  Just stay with me and keep close eye on the records and the regression and progression factors. 
 
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Posted: #315

Good Luck and thanks a lot for your job ??

 
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Posted: #316
Just released Sundays full card to some friends...

Pending

Jets (-120) ML

Adding

Tampa Bay Under 6 goals

Dallas +3.5 NFL

Pacers Under 225.5

Stanford Over 139.5 (CBB)

1 unit each..


 
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Posted: #317

BOL!!

an_cheers

 
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Posted: #318
How do you feel about parlaying bets Lawton?

Would it not be beneficial to just parlay all the bets to increase the odds?
 
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Posted: #319
Just wanted to clear something up. If 1 unit equals $100 and the line is -125 you suggest risking $100 to win $80 correct? Or if line is +125 we risk $100 to win $125. 

Basically we net 0.8 units on the -125 line and 1.25 units on the +125 line but only stand to lose one unit per bet? Also what are we risking on standard -110 lines? 

My strategy has been to risk what it takes to win $100 on juiced lines and risk $100 on dogs. 
 
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Posted: #320
I never tell anyone what to play but I wager to Win 1 unit on favorites and I risk 1 unit on dogs...
 
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Posted: #321
I do not parlay and I'll leave it at that... 
 
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Posted: #322
Nice little business like 3-2 Sunday... The NFL let me down today, injuries and suspensions played a bigger role for Dallas today than I accounted for.. Oh well, the other sports picked up the slack as we went 3-0 on the last 3 plays.. Back on Monday...
 
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Posted: #323
Mondays plays will be posted later today..
 
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Posted: #324
Probability System
95-68 (+21.05 units)
58.28% Winners
(-109) average juice
1 unit each

NHL: 39-24 (+12.85 units)
CBB: 3-0 (+3.00 units)
CFB: 19-15 (+2.60 units)
NFL: 12-11 (+0.20 units)
MLB: 9-6 (+3.10 units)
NBA: 13-12 (-0.70 units) 9-3 last 12

Back later with Mondays card


 
 
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Posted: #325
Quote Originally Posted by Lawton1:

Nice little business like 3-2 Sunday... The NFL let me down today, injuries and suspensions played a bigger role for Dallas today than I accounted for.. Oh well, the other sports picked up the slack as we went 3-0 on the last 3 plays.. Back on Monday...


I'm almost to the point where I'm gonna stay away from NFL.

Great work on NBA, you seemed to have got that system tightened up nicely!

Thanks for all.
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