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Lawton's Projections

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Posted: #201
November 1

Chicago Over 5.5 (-120)

New Jersey +110

San Jose -135

1 unit each


Sorry but I didn't see a friend request, didn't know where to look.  Just ask me here..
 
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Posted: #202
I assume you are using some kind of likelihood estimator (e.g. logit/probit) and/or confidence interval to drive your probabilities. 

If so, I'm surprised you are achieving vastly different records among the different sports. Any rationale why that might be?
 
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Posted: #203
In this biz since Aug 1986
Been working with models and programming since 2009.

I use a unique set of Power Ratings for each individual sport for my models, relying heavily on these for Money lines.. I have something very different for Totals.. 

Just recently I added probability and advanced forecasting to the equation...

I can't tell you why the NHL and NFL are killing it, nor can I tell you why the NBA is stinking it up right now.  But I can tell you that all will regress back to the MEAN, remember that.. 

I do expect a big upturn for the NBA, my data for this season is small right now... I will tell you this, my CBB totals are usually very good but it may take me to mid December to get there.. 

My business model...
8 betting days per week
57.14% Winners
(-112) avg juice at most
Plays limited to around 3, most of the time..

I'll be around for a while, follow along if you wish.. Fire away with any questions that you may have..
 
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Posted: #204
Good fortune Lawton....nice record you have.
 
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Posted: #205
i really liked reading your thread, 
I find some similarities in our systems. 
we don`t cap games 
we use numbers and numbers only
we both understand regression to the means
It took me a bit of time to realise how important regression  actually is. 
It is now is a vital part of my models,, i use color coded numbers to highlight the extreme numbers.. Too high....too low   =  reverse
I also use regression on the performance of my models... Very good results so far.

I`m still a rookie sports gambler, but i am a long time numbers guy.

Keep on rolling, 
 
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Posted: #206
Your doing well. Keep it. Thank you for sharing.
 
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Posted: #207
Probability System
66-44 (+20.10 units)
60.00% Winners
(-105) avg juice
1 unit each

NHL: 30-14 (+15.50 units)
NFL: 12-6 (+5.80 units)
MLB: 9-6 (+3.10 units)
CFB: 11-10 (0.00 units)
NBA: 4-8 (-5.30 units)

November 2

Winnipeg -110

Colorado +100

Jets Under 42.5 (NFL)

1 unit each


Check back this afternoon for any additions

Probability (the likelihood of an outcome occurring)



 
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Posted: #208
GL Lawton    THANKS
 
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Posted: #209
Like em all. Might add BUFF -3 too. 
 
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Posted: #210

Thanks for the 2k last nite. After it looked like the total wouldn’t hit I checked ur picks ... hammered the last 2 games. Mind u I already liked the devils.

 

Probably not wise to go head to head with u but I like stars even though every thing points to a jets win. I just believe stars go on a streak....

 
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Posted: #211
Thanks guys, follow or fade em.. 

I do not handicap (except for extreme weather conditions or injuries), I have zero opinions on any play that I post.. I watch a little college football on weekends but not much else... I do keep up with things, as they play out.. 

I trust my models (numbers) and absolutely nothing else... What I have is a very unique way of doing this... It comes down to,,,, there are many things (stats) that are useless and then there are a few that you need to use, that should make you rich... I've said enough..

My best wishes to each of you..
 
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Posted: #212
I parlayed the hockey picks.  I just wanna say thank you!!!!
 
Prospect
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Posted: #213
please respond to this.I normally bet heavy on your overs in hockey games.But that over in the blackhawks game cost me alot. Not trying to complain. I'll take good with the bad. Thanks for everything!
 
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Posted: #214
Respond? Wtf u want him to say? Pfftt, some people on here... 
 
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Posted: #215
Probability System
68-45 (+21.00 units)
60.12% Winners
(-105) avg juice
1 unit each

NHL: 32-14 (+17.50 units)
NFL: 12-7 (+4.70 units)
MLB: 9-6 (+3.10 units)
CFB: 11-10 (0.00 units)
NBA: 4-8 (-5.30 units)

Nov 3

Anaheim -110

Utah Under 195

Florida Atlantic Over 67

1 unit each


My response to the poster above.... I advise flat betting all my plays, I play 2.5% of BR on each... Success for me, with this system is a win percentage of 57.14% or better, against an average line of no higher than (-112) over a very large number of plays.. Recalculate your wager amount every new quarter (3 months), simple as that... 
 
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Posted: #216

peace_5

 
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Posted: #217
 
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Posted: #218
Keep up the good work. 
 
Prospect
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Posted: #219
i see that the fl atl dropped to 63.5
 
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Posted: #220
Thanks guys

Yeah I noticed that FAU total dropped.. Nothing I can do about that. Hopefully the Over still cashes.... After a shaky start in the CFB, we are running at 7-1 over the last 8..


 
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Posted: #221
I hate it when I come up opposite you. Makes have to double check what I was doing. Keep up the good work. Thank you for posting.
 
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Posted: #222
better luck tomorrow
 
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Posted: #223
Yep, tough night.. The NBA is killing the win % right now.. 
 
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Posted: #224
Probability System
68-48 (+17.70 units)
58.62% Winners
(-105) avg juice
1 unit each

NHL: 32-15 (+16.40 units)
NFL: 12-7 (+4.70 units)
MLB: 9-6 (+3.10 units)
CFB: 11-11 (-1.10 units)
NBA: 4-9 (-6.40 units)

116 plays in the books
Overall win %%% is in line
The average juice is looking great
The play volume is right in line

But by breaking down the individual sports by record, you can really see what's going on.. 

Back with Saturdays first card... 


 
 
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Posted: #225
Thanks so much for sharing your work. Have a relaxing Saturday.
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