NHL 23-24 Picks

1 locked in

Josi over 3.5 sog @2.20  0.5 to win 0.6

Over this is 3 of last 4

Has 3 and 5 vs sj this year

Like him to get 3+ on net 

GL all

1 locked in

Mrazek over 29.5 saves @1.80  0.5 to win 0.4

Like kings to throw 30+ on net at home

GL all

1-1 small profit

Was worried about look ahead spot for kings...looks like they saved energy for tonight big tilt vs minne

Leans

Min/lak under 6.0...no play at 5.5 fuckin empty netters.....almost played nyr/wpg last night empty netter woulda fuckced me

Leans

Nsh/fla u6.0 @1.92

Nyr/bos u5.5 @2.02

Sea/vgk u6.0 @1.85

Pasta over 4.5 sog @2.10

P.kane over 3.5 sog @2.35

Lean

Wpg/nj u6.0 @1.97

BOL tonight 

@Raiders22

  prob just March madness for me...maybe the wpg/nj under ..2 hot goalies

Good luck with your March Madness dubz , here are the numbers you asked about yesterday 

Total 1 - 1.3%       3 - 10.1%    5 - 21.4%    7 - 21.3%   9 - 10.3%

        2 - 1.7%       4 - 7.7%      6 - 11.4%    8 - 7.4%    10 - 2.6%    10+ - 4.7%

Hope this helps 

@rustie

 U do that urself or website 

Thanks man great numbers for how I do things

Numbers are gleaned from Hockey Reference, after a little excel work 

@rustie

 Merci fella canuck

1 locked in

Macdaddy over 4.5 sog @1.88  0.5 to win 0.44

Over this in last 4 home games

Over this in 4 of last 6

Only worry is if rantanen/nichuskin  steal all his shots

Like him to get 4+ on net at home 

GL all

Leans went 4-2 ....

Might be time to hit unders...playoff push in full effect

Gotta be between 2 playoff teams or team just out of playoff race, preferably avoid 5.5 lines , prefer teams from same division/conf. ...don't hate cross conference games but don't like em as much 

So maybe Canes/Caps Under 6??

Interesting , and got me to thinking (which is unusual ), do teams tighten up ? A quick check ,very quick, and I find last year scoring actually increased slightly after the trade deadline from 6.33/game pre deadline to 6.46 post deadline. Hmmm, give me some time and maybe I'll try to see if this is the norm.

If you're interested that is? 

@Gainsford

 Didn't stand out to me. They are quite far apart in standings . And don't love kuemper going net

Stl/min and Fla/nyr tomorrow the ones I'm eyeing...guessing we get stupid 5.5s 

Bunch of potential tight games tomorrow...lots of playoff implications...even in the cross conference ones 

@rustie

 I wouldn't go off those numbers per se....maybe those numbers are up because teams outta race are giving up 6-8 goals a night (ana, cbj, sj, chi, etc..)...but great numbers and I am some what surprised by them...

The games between teams tight in race should be tighter (like stl/min tomorrow...it could easily go over but it Should be a tight game)

@rustie

 I would expect to find multiple populations in that data set.  dubz is proposing targeting Unders in games where both teams are playoff bubble teams, and that makes sense to me.  There are other teams who are eliminated, who may bring up youth to get them some NHL XP, rest some Vets more than typical, Give #2 and #3 Goalies some extra playing time, etc. which could lead to higher scoring games that could skew the stats you presented. 

Dunno for sure, but I think its worth....   (wait for it....)   "I'll be monitoring this system closely..."  

@rustie

@dyamarik

Ya so dya  touched on what I was getting at. Certain scenarios favor the under....goals might be up overall. But in a game like stl/min tomorrow the game should end on 4,5,6 or 7 goals around 75-80% of the time. So if u get a line of 6.0 u basically have 40% chance of winnings on 4 or 5. 20% chances of pushing on 6.0 or 30% chance of losing on 7 or more and 10% chance of winning on 1-3

Those are just rough guesstimate numbers but it gives u the general idea of the numbers you are betting into

And preferably 2 division teams, tight in standings, fighting for seeding or playoff lives

Don't mind if they in same conference

Don't love cross conference...like wpg/nj last night....but that was 2 red hot goalies and nj fighting for playoff lives and wpg fighting for #1 seed....Allen red hot since trade (my boy) and broissant  playing better then hellebuck  of late

@rustie

 Awesome . Was wondering about 1 and 2...sure enough 3%

Only 2 possible  outcomes 1-0 or 2-0...1-1 automatically becomes 3 with ot/so

1 or 2 at combined 3%

3 at 10%

4 at 7.7% ...again 2-2 automatically becomes 5 with today's rules 

5 at 21.4%

So numerically speaking, those 5 possible outcomes (1-5 goals) occur approx 42.1% of the time

Hence anytime you bet into a 5.5 line you are at a massive numerical disadvantage. No matter how "much" or how "good" you cap the game. The numbers state that approx, 42.1% of games will end with 5 goals or less.

Hence why I mention plus money and 5.5 lines of late

Of course every game is its  individual entity, and those numbers of approx 42.1% can sway (hot goalies, team hasn't allowed over 2 goals in 10+ games, etc, etc)

I regret passing in wpg/nj last night. Nj has good goaltending all of a sudden and are fighting for playoff lives (they prob won't make it and effort might dwindle with 6-8 games remaining if its clear they eliminated)

But u don't get many 6.0 Jets lines. They one of tighter teams in league this year.  

6.0 being the key. As u can see what that does to your percentages (that original 42.1%)

Thanks rustman

No problem Dubz glad I was of some help, and thanks for the breakdown of how to use this info , much appreciated 

Now let's get 'em 

@rustie

 Literally just locked in. Got my 6.0...I'll roll the dice....of course all this talk means we get a 5-2 5-3 game

1 locked in

Stl/min u6.0 @1.85  0.5 to win 0.425

Don't mind any combo of the 4 goalies...have bad luck with fleury  so almost prefer Gustavsson

Crucial 2 points for both teams, will be a tight checking game 

One worry is they 3-0 to the under so far this year so this would be "due" for an over...and 3-3 OT always a worry

Like that its an early afternoon game as well

Locked in now as I imagine this drops to 5.5

GL all

I like that play Dubz and it certainly fits the criteria 

I don't know what your tolerance level is or how you work , but you can also play the 6 in reg. for more juice of course ( in this case, 6 is currently at 1.892 & 6 in reg. is 1.735). My question is , is it worth it to buy the 3-3 insurance?

@rustie

 Ya thats a whole different and interesting topic

At 1.73 I would pass and go with 1.89 I think

If it was 1.82 and 1.95 I would prob take the 1.82 in reg.

1.82 requires a 55% win rate over 100 plays

1.95 requires 52% win rate over 100 plays

So do you think your game goes to 3-3 OT around 3% of the time??

I am worried about today's game going to overtime....now will it be 2-2 OT or 3-3 OT or even 4-4 OT

And I don't like 2 good d out for both team (dunn and brodin)

Panthers have a bunch of injuries on D as well and the fla/nyr not must win for either team as both comfy at top of standings....and looks like it dropped 5.5

Tb/la could go under 6.0...both teams fighting for wildcard spot

Phi/bos but I think they already dropped it to 5.5 and I don't like flyers goaltending