NHL 23-24 Picks

@rustie

 See post 475

On the mention of OT

Did you have % of OT games so far this season....I'll guess its in the 12-18% range?

1 locked in on previous page

Stl/min under 6.0 @1.85  0.5 to win 0.425

Other leans

Bedard over 3.5 sog @2.05

Hyman over 3.5 sog @2.02

Konecny over 3.5 sog @2.05

Pasta over 4.5 sog @2.25

Waiting on saves

@dubz4dummyz

   I just wrote that the STL Under might be the playoff tight race Under spot you mentioned, and BOOM you posted it as a play.  I have to bet it now. 

Good luck to day Brother - great call on Macdaddy.  That one hit early 2P. 

@dyamarik

 Ya I gotta take a stab, especially on a 6.0

That opportunity of a push is massive over thousands of bets 

Just reading my playoff notes regarding unders. Says game 1 and game 7 unders. Hoping we get some specific matchups for the split...not gonna lie don't like how the split options are looking if season ended today

Dubz   OT this year is currently 14.7% / SO 6.3%

                           2022-23  OT 15.8% - SO 7.2%

                           2021-22  OT 14.2% - SO 7.8%

and I think (?) I have found that there is a slight ~1% increase in OT games after the trade deadline possibly because teams are tightening up as you suspect 

@rustie

 Yes tightening up/more on the line (games have more meaning)

Perfect example is this game today I bet....am i betting this in November, probably not. Teams still gelling, games less meaning early on just human nature the playoffs seem so far away in November. Of course there would be individual games early in season that would go against that (division rivals, played in playoffs last year, red-hot goalie,  etc...)

Tochett the canuck head coach mentioned this to his players. To treat November game like an April game. Cause they barely missed playoffs and lots of players looked back at points they gave away

Sure enough this year they 1st in league...now how much that correlates i dunno but it probably helped that tochett pounded home the value of early season points

@rustie

 Yessir 14.7% thanks

Adding all this to the excelp

@rustie

 If u dont mind dropping the numbers again at end of reg.season?

be interested to see if they move much. Not a ton of games remaining to move the averages

@rustie

 Another way you could answer your 3-3 OT do I pay the juice question....but its huge pain in the ass...easier to do fresh next year

Of the 21.3% of games that ended on 7...what % of those games were 3-3 OT games

7-0

6-1

5-2

4-3 regulation

4-3 OT

Are the 5 possibilities 

Well looks like I got some homework to do. I'll see what my drug and alcohol addled brain will allow me to do (don't judge me, it's all legal now) LOL

@rustie

 She's all a numbers game

Gl today . Nice call on stars + over 5.5 last night

So to continue this , here's what I have so far. 

234 games this year have totals of 7, of those games:

59 (25.2%) have gone to OT

23 (9.8%) have gone to SO

82 (35%) total games 3-3 have gone to Extra time 

@rustie

 Wow 35% is wild. Was expecting 25-30.  But actually it kinda makes sense when u see 11% land on 6.0 and 20% on 7

So if your game does land on 7 . About a 1 in 3 chance the game has gone to OT

So at 1.735 you need to win 58 of 100 bets to be profitable

At 1.89 you need to win 53 of 100 bets to be profitable 

So regarding a 6.0 line we can now try to factor in the chance of a push if betting regulation line

Now since the 6.0 and 6.0 reg line are the same number we can eliminate some scenarios . The only difference in this line is if the game ends 3-3 in regulation you lose the 6.0 bet but get your money back on the 6.0 regulation line. If it ends 5-1 you get your money back on either bet. Same as 4-2, money back on either bet

Bettor A bets 100 games under 6.0 all @1.89 odds (risk 100 to win 89)

Numerically speaking of those 100 bets around 20 of them should land on 7 

And of those 20 games that land on 7 about 33% should OT game. Let's say 6. But its not a perfect world so of the 100 bets only 4 land 7 via 3-3 OT

Bettor A goes 55-45

55 wins × 89 = 4895

45 losses x 100= 4500

Profit= 395

Bettor B bets exact same games but 6.0 regulation @1.735 odds...the 4 games that ended 3-3 in regulation push for him instead of a loss like bettor A 

Bettor B goes 55-41-4 

55 wins × 73.5= 4042.5

41 losses x 100= 4100

Profit= -57.50

So bettor B needs 5 pushes per 100 plays to make profit, if he gets 6-8 pushes the numbers get better

Bettor A seems to be the better option at these specific odds

There might be a number where it makes sense...I wonder if my gut about 1.82 line was right.  As obviously the required win rate drops at better odds . I'll crunch those numbers next

Again this is also in a vacuum...some games have a much higher chance of being lower scoring than other games...even tho numerically speaking a percentage of games should land on 5 or 6 or 7, etc..

Thats part of capping or just knowing the sport

Have a bad feeling about God damn MAF in net...almost always hoses me

Knew that was coming

U6.0

Wouldn't be shocked if the other 3 went under...bos/phi already won

And that is the nature of the Beast I'm afraid, somedays you can do no wrong and then suddenly  

Can't win them all Dubz or they wouldn't let us play anymore 

@rustie

 Yup all part of the battle

On to the next

1 locked in 

Macdaddy over 4.5 sog @1.98 0.5 to win 0.49

Extra motivation vs his best buddy Crosby

Has 5,5 and 8 last 3 vs pit

Liek him to get 4+ on net at home

GL all

 Nice hit 

@rustie

Macdaddio

Looking at both unders tomorrow...like lak/van quite a bit more tho

Guess I had to lock in that under 6.0 last night ...woke up to 5.5 

On to tomorro

 Liked that under at 6 as well when it was -120.  -150 to play it now.

@dyamarik

 Ya of course both hit when I pass...

Ton of games fit the criteria for unders tonight

Bos/fla under 6.0 the one I like most

Leans

Like a ton of unders

Macdaddy over 4.5 sog @1.75

Blackwood over 28.5 saves @1.80

1 locked in

Blackwood over 28.5 saves @1.80 0.5 to win 0.4

Dal has 38 and 40 sog vs sj this year

Like dal to get 30+ on net

GL all