NHL DRAWS Anyone interested in betting on just game to go to OT

I have decided that Vegas is too good at predicting lines, so I thought it would make sense to bet on something that even they have little idea about.  Some teams go to OT more often immediately following a draw such as NJ this year, while others like to wait for about 3-5 games before drawing again like philly(9/10 times last year between 2-6 with only one being 10 gms in between).  Another thing to look at is days rest for example the Wild on no rest had 8 draws last year and so far this year 2/3 so far this year, while phi last year had 10 draws when they had more than a day rest(2+ days off between games).  These are just some ideas I had, but I would be interested if someone had any thoughts on it or wanted to join me on this unexplored frontier as more people could make the time spent analyzing each team much quicker.  Thanks and good luck.

I have access to a sports lottery that allows parlaying of OT ties. Let's just say it can be quite profitable when you go on a nice run.

Anything can be quite profitable if you go on a run lol  The idea here is to figure out when to bet on a particular team.  I did try a more gestalt approach where I bet on everything that day and although I would somedays go up 10 units lets say if 5/10 draws hit one day(which they have this year already) but then the next day it would be 0/9 or even worse 0/13 so parlaying draws may be something I am interested in for the future, but for now I am just looking to get a group together to figure out how many games after the last draw would be a profitable time to bet.  For example NJ the next two games after a draw you wouldve won 3X and then lost twice so about +7.5 units followed by -2 units.  If you were to follow that mentality then you would pick the next two NJ games cuz they just had a draw.  So ideas like that, but thanks for the idea.

From time to time I do bet on OT but so far this October I think last time I checked only 1 in 8 games overall were going past the 60 min mark (not a 100% accurate figure but it is way down on October 2014 for sure)
To be honest I'm going to swerve this market until after the All star game at least

Concentrate on my team totals,puck lines and 1st period plays

The month started hitting 8/74 a meager 11%, but finished 33/163 which would be 1/5.  Also it means that after that horrid start it went 28% from the 18th to 31st.  Nonetheless, by my analysis of the last two years with Oct being 20% November actually should be a good month for many teams(Oct last year was .272 and Nov .286 in 2013-14)  So they flip flopped, I only looked at the past two years so it is a small sample size, but a bad month usually has been followed by a good one.  Also, even if you don't want to bet this month if you like analyzing stats it would behoove you to analyze now so that you can bet on draws more accurately when you decide to join in;)

Certain teams and matchups go ot much higher than others i did a thread couple yrs ago about it and i think i included things like to play nj U5 at home and Over 5 on road
I thinknit was boston who rarely won by a goal. Wins generally were 2+ or they lost

I think at the time it was about 1 in 8 went to ot and teams like anaheim and jets played lots of ot

All sounds interesting, I wouldn't mind hearing some stats on "Lots of OT," I believe that team matchups mean little tbh, but am still learning.  I would love to see the stats on draws that are given +375 vs +260, but unfortunately I don't follow stats that are based on what vegas thinks.  I remember last year at least I bet on Edm vs Was when caps were at home before all star break and according to my stats both teams were due for the draw, it was 4-2 in the 3rd and I stopped paying attention 30 mins later edm won it in OT.  Same goes for a game when Ari played Chi and the coyotes were ugly last year but they also took Chi to OT and won it there.  Anyway I am rambling here on the topic of the quality of teams and how much that impacts a draw, but at the present time I ignore quality of teams and go purely off of days rest and how long it has been since the last draw.

Anyway seems no one wants to join my crusade so I'll go at it alone.  I realized that in order to proprely assess when draws will hit I need to combine days so that each entry is at least 10 games,2/4 wont have as big as an impact as even 4/10(even though 2/4 has a higher win ratio it doesn't forecast the future days as well).  So if it isn't already clear I have given up on picking individual games as a system of some sort of continuation would be necessarry and we all know how that ends.  So for now I will draw out some numbers and let you know when I am betting.  Cheers and good luck to all.

Panthers/Ducks tomorrow.

Why must you tempt me duck man, I said no more individuals and right now is not a good time to bet on everyone...I'll think about it, It also can't hurt to bet on all the teams today with only 4 games the most likely result would be a scratch although I would not be surprised to see two draws with all the match ups being pretty equal.  I'll keep you posted, but doubt I will pick and choose as I have not been good at that this year=/

Alright so after further analysis, I believe today to be a decent day to bet on all draws.  The year started with the first 70 gms being TERRIBLE, followed by 35 gms which were good, and then about 65 gms where it was pretty bad.  Point is, it is bound to turn around this month sometime.  Am I prematurely shooting the gun...yes lol, but tonight only has 4 gms and therefore is low risk.  I would say I like the match ups, but it would be a moot point as I have already confessed to being bad at picking individual gms to bet on.  THIS YEAR SO FAR HAS BEEN THE WORST TO BET ON DRAWS TO DATE, but it will turn around this month and I suggest you wait for some signs of life rather than join me tonight.  If it is any consolation duck man above approves of Ana v Fla and I like Wpg v Tor(both have had 5 gms since their last draw and I like 5v5 I feel its good luck), So let's hope for a two draw night(+4) or at least 1 draw(break even).  Cheers

i wouldnt use any "due for" ..i dont get much time right now to help but when i get the chance i believe theres ways to find certain "matchups" or styles of play that would increase the probability of overtime

https://www.sportingcharts.com/nhl/stats/team-win-loss-record-by-type-regulation-overtime-and-shootout/2015/

https://www.hockey-reference.com/teams/BOS/2015_headtohead.html

I once used to bet on draws.. I would pick a team and bet on it to draw repeatedly. This was in European leagues..the average over the season was for a team to draw every 4th or 5th game. Then one team in Swedish league went 22 games without a draw, and one team in German league went 31 games without a draw..
I say stay away from it :-)

called it.

Ottawa/Winnipeg tomorrow.

Alright duckman hats off to you, but I refuse to believe you have the ability to pull off two in a row so I did not pick wpg/ott tonight(I wish you the best though). 

So as I continue to assert I don’t like picking and choosing one team over the other and have a system(sorta) that is based on betting every gm for about 50-70 gms(about a week) when the time is right(not yet).

 If I can somehow(with the help of others insight) learn how to tease out gms that are obvious not to go to OT then that would help the yield greatly.  BUT FOR NOW, I shall wait, and foolishly accept duckman’s challenge for picking individual gms, my picks are as follow: bos/was, min/nsh, ari/col, phi/cgy.  One unit each as always, GL.(disclaimer for those who have not paid attention I do not encourage anyone to follow my picks ever lol I will inform you when it is time to bet on almost every gm for the week though=))

Oh and Chaka I don’t understand your lingo, but what I do have to say is Bos only had 15 draws the prior year and twice went over 10 gms in a row without a draw, so the connection between the years seems unproven to me for most teams, which is why I have yet to commit to picking individual teams.  Philadelphia for example has been consistent around the 3,4,5 mark for gms in between draws for the past two years.  I doubt I will check out the links because I already have enough crap that I look at(pardon my French), but do YOU see a lucrative connection for teams that have already drawn to draw again?  And if so is it every team or just specific ones like divisional match ups.  Cheers

 

Duckman...I am speechless, How do you do it, or are you just that lucky lol.  Fortuntately Phi/cgy hit so i only lost half a unit today when it couldve been +3.5 just like yesterday if I included your pick. 

Could it be that OT games occur randomly.?  Any stats that would show something that there would be a correlation to. I have tried similar systems on dice, which are supposed to be random. You can go on a run with that. I also saw a streak of when the dice came up seven it was 6-1 (or 1-6) 27 times in a row. I decided to give that up because that could not have been random. There was a better chance that the sun would not come up tomorrow.

called it again .


which one tonight ? at first glance i would say Jackets/Ducks.

Why couldn't you use the Vegas spread to determine which games have a better chance of overtime? Obviously a game with -250 would not be as likely as a -110 game. Same for a team's record. Check last years records but I would think that a team that lost 40 games had more overtimes that one that lost 20. Now you have to figure how much Vegas figures that in when they set the odds for overtime. Also if you think the overtimes are about to hit why not bet the over? Or how about under 5 games when you think they will not hit?. That way you avoid the 3-2 overtime push. Hope for a lot of 3-1 games. but you still push on 4-1 or 3-2. If a team has 12 overtime games a year, maybe 8 of those games were 3-2 and four of those were under winners and four were pushes. Take out the overtime games and that would give you four more wins per year per team (or two per team if you thought there would not be many overtime games 1/2 of the time)  Divide that by 2 to get games instead of teams and that would give you 30 more wins per year and reverse it when you think the OT games will hit and that gives you+60 (you would get pushes instead of losses) Not much of an advantage but look at last years records and see if the difference if you got 30 more wins instead of losses. 

It appears duckman is the hero we need not the hero we deserve…Without his predictions we are just taking shots in the dark.  The only games I placed so far were dal/car and Det/Tor.  NJ looks like they are in drawing form, but Chi on the otherhand not so much.  Pit/Edm looked good until Edm star got injured.  Col/NYR doesn’t look favorable as they are on no rest, but just came back home, and NYR just started their road trip…which is usually something I like, but NYR are on multiple days rest and are in good form so I find it hard to pick them.  Leaving us with ana/cls, now we all know that ana is not the team they were the previous years and cls has not hit a draw once this year and cls has not faired well on no rest last year, but both teams are trying to get their groove back and that makes for an interesting game. 

What does this mean?  Once again nothing, without duckman I don’t like our odds haha he is 2/2, while I only won two days ago when I bet all 4 gms and went 2/4 before going ¼ yesterday. 

I think the best bet would be to wait for tomorrow as it appears to have a lot of promise and save your money.  Then FROM WHAT I ACTUALLY HAVE BEEN ANALYZING, BETTING ON EVERYTHING TODAY AND TOMORROW has a low percentage of leading to any big losses and has a good percentage of winning.  So I guess I am going to just stick with my two bets tonight of det/tor, dal/car and then bet on almost every game tomorrow.  Here is to hoping=)  I shall drink to that tonight, and hope that duckman’s powers have left some lingering effect on this threads picks;)  cheers 

i was leaning pens/oilers but didnt have the balls to post it.

tomorrow im thinking jets/flyers or nashville/wild.

strongly leaning jets game

Pit/Edm looked good until Edm star got injured.. pens got injured and oilers been on a hot streak which is was the reason for my pick... love your write up easy fella... i gotta work early tomorrow and will miss the start of games. so posting early plus, so you know my 2 picks for tomorrow. would love to read your write ups on sunday games. ill be back then.