Thank you duckman this is like a blessing from the space
lizard pope=’)
As for today, I was going to get started on looking at each
match up, but my bacon cheese burger just arrived and I must tend to that
first, but I’ll just say I think I will stick to my original plan of betting on
all 11 gms today.
For now, Van loves to draw not going more than3 gms without
one, which looks a lot like they did two years ago where they only got to the 5th
game mark without a draw twice and those were 6 and 8. Last year on the other hand they were a way
more erratic , but still liked that 2,3,4 gm spot. Buffalo is around that same category as well
with two years ago enjoying the 2,3,4 mark.
Also Van is starting a road trip, which is something I am looking into
more, but believe that it might facilitate the draw.
The next game is not until 4 so I’ll post again later, but
with 11 gms I almost just want to bet them all and be done with it. Until then nom nom nom
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Thank you duckman this is like a blessing from the space
lizard pope=’)
As for today, I was going to get started on looking at each
match up, but my bacon cheese burger just arrived and I must tend to that
first, but I’ll just say I think I will stick to my original plan of betting on
all 11 gms today.
For now, Van loves to draw not going more than3 gms without
one, which looks a lot like they did two years ago where they only got to the 5th
game mark without a draw twice and those were 6 and 8. Last year on the other hand they were a way
more erratic , but still liked that 2,3,4 gm spot. Buffalo is around that same category as well
with two years ago enjoying the 2,3,4 mark.
Also Van is starting a road trip, which is something I am looking into
more, but believe that it might facilitate the draw.
The next game is not until 4 so I’ll post again later, but
with 11 gms I almost just want to bet them all and be done with it. Until then nom nom nom
Just a quick update. Everything was bet on. I saw that buffalo scored with 17 seconds left to ruin a perfectly drawn out OT gm, but that is called a statistic nothing to cry over 10 gms left hoping for 3-5 to hit whynot. I am 100% confident that at least 1 will go to OT rustlung in:
-7...(2=-3, 3=+1, 4=+5)(rough estimates)
Good luck to all and to all a good night
Oh and sorry duckman that I am not posting my thoughts on the gms tonight, other than the absurd explanation of how van/buf could be studied by a mad hatter on a fort night drinkin gin & juice. But the whole idea of making a system is so it will do the work for you, looking at 22 teams lol ain't nobody got time for that. I'm looking to win not make money. A wise man once told me "money doesn't matter it's just paper and little pieces of metal." I see this more as a hobby that I don't want to distract me too much from life, but I really do like looking into these things at times and studying stats as silly as they may seem. Billy Beane applied a new way to look at value in a player that no one else looked at, and it worked as his team was making it to the playoffs vs teams that payed 6X more $ for their teams. He didn't make the system up though he just applied it on the highest possible level like a boss.You should read the book Moneyball if you wanna learn more, I recommend it and relate to the analysis of stats that people didn't think to even make a stat of... Oh listen to me prattle on, cheery Oh=D
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Just a quick update. Everything was bet on. I saw that buffalo scored with 17 seconds left to ruin a perfectly drawn out OT gm, but that is called a statistic nothing to cry over 10 gms left hoping for 3-5 to hit whynot. I am 100% confident that at least 1 will go to OT rustlung in:
-7...(2=-3, 3=+1, 4=+5)(rough estimates)
Good luck to all and to all a good night
Oh and sorry duckman that I am not posting my thoughts on the gms tonight, other than the absurd explanation of how van/buf could be studied by a mad hatter on a fort night drinkin gin & juice. But the whole idea of making a system is so it will do the work for you, looking at 22 teams lol ain't nobody got time for that. I'm looking to win not make money. A wise man once told me "money doesn't matter it's just paper and little pieces of metal." I see this more as a hobby that I don't want to distract me too much from life, but I really do like looking into these things at times and studying stats as silly as they may seem. Billy Beane applied a new way to look at value in a player that no one else looked at, and it worked as his team was making it to the playoffs vs teams that payed 6X more $ for their teams. He didn't make the system up though he just applied it on the highest possible level like a boss.You should read the book Moneyball if you wanna learn more, I recommend it and relate to the analysis of stats that people didn't think to even make a stat of... Oh listen to me prattle on, cheery Oh=D
So the day came and past with only minor damages, going 2/11 lost 3 units exactly because Was/Tor was +325. The past few days(when I started posting) still up +2, and still waiting for that explosion of draws that I have been anticipating oh so impatiently.
There are only 5 gms in the next two days so nothing too scary, if I bet them all, which is expected worst case scenario is a loss of 5 units. Perhaps I shall pick and choose, I'll probably post before 12pm of my moves. If anyone(cough* duckman) has some insight on those gms would love to hear it even if I will probably not heed it. G'night
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So the day came and past with only minor damages, going 2/11 lost 3 units exactly because Was/Tor was +325. The past few days(when I started posting) still up +2, and still waiting for that explosion of draws that I have been anticipating oh so impatiently.
There are only 5 gms in the next two days so nothing too scary, if I bet them all, which is expected worst case scenario is a loss of 5 units. Perhaps I shall pick and choose, I'll probably post before 12pm of my moves. If anyone(cough* duckman) has some insight on those gms would love to hear it even if I will probably not heed it. G'night
Hi Easyfeller I can't really offer too much insight to the game except what the stats show me (select stats), so for Sunday the only game I can pick is Edm/Chi. The numbers tell me that these two teams have been mediocre at best.They also tell me that we should see improved defense from both teams as they both show better discipline(at least for this game) as well. Of course since I don't watch hockey the above is all I get to select that type of pick. . Cheers
0
Hi Easyfeller I can't really offer too much insight to the game except what the stats show me (select stats), so for Sunday the only game I can pick is Edm/Chi. The numbers tell me that these two teams have been mediocre at best.They also tell me that we should see improved defense from both teams as they both show better discipline(at least for this game) as well. Of course since I don't watch hockey the above is all I get to select that type of pick. . Cheers
Starting this post is the hardest part because duckman has not posted as of late and I haven't formed any bond with the waterboy(somethings wrong with his medulla oblongata) *sensible chuckle* Ok now that that's done...
Ok folks I hope you have not grown weary of my rants or my judgment day like prophecies of the impending doooom, er I mean draws, that will soon be upon us.
So I know I said a few days ago that Fri/Sat wouldn't be that bad of days to bet on every gm...But I spooked too soon without any true reference. But that has all changed. Last night I spent some time mixing chemicals and gently swirling beakers in my laboratory and in doing so came up with a prediction based off of 18 previous situations from the past two years.
Betting on all of the next 17 gms will have
66% chance of winning 3 or more units
28% chance of losing 3 or more units
06% chance of even steven
The percentages are based off of if fri+sat was 3/17 or 4/17 because the differences are trivial(1draw) and when you are alchemizing there is no room for astringency. I could go into further detail, but at this unproven time it is not really necessary or warranted. Just look at it this way if you are playing with 3 people in Texas hold em and get pocket aces your chances of winning are 64% if nobody folds. Irrelevant yes, but it shows that even the best starting hand in poker can't offer you better percentages than 2/3 with 3 people in the hand.
Good luck and would love to see duckman's and waterboy's picks the next few days to see if you can more accurately guess who will go to the OT then an automated hedgebot. Cheers Happy Sunday
0
Starting this post is the hardest part because duckman has not posted as of late and I haven't formed any bond with the waterboy(somethings wrong with his medulla oblongata) *sensible chuckle* Ok now that that's done...
Ok folks I hope you have not grown weary of my rants or my judgment day like prophecies of the impending doooom, er I mean draws, that will soon be upon us.
So I know I said a few days ago that Fri/Sat wouldn't be that bad of days to bet on every gm...But I spooked too soon without any true reference. But that has all changed. Last night I spent some time mixing chemicals and gently swirling beakers in my laboratory and in doing so came up with a prediction based off of 18 previous situations from the past two years.
Betting on all of the next 17 gms will have
66% chance of winning 3 or more units
28% chance of losing 3 or more units
06% chance of even steven
The percentages are based off of if fri+sat was 3/17 or 4/17 because the differences are trivial(1draw) and when you are alchemizing there is no room for astringency. I could go into further detail, but at this unproven time it is not really necessary or warranted. Just look at it this way if you are playing with 3 people in Texas hold em and get pocket aces your chances of winning are 64% if nobody folds. Irrelevant yes, but it shows that even the best starting hand in poker can't offer you better percentages than 2/3 with 3 people in the hand.
Good luck and would love to see duckman's and waterboy's picks the next few days to see if you can more accurately guess who will go to the OT then an automated hedgebot. Cheers Happy Sunday
Gonna take a stab with the only game on the board tomorrow. Ducks/Coyotes... yotes have been the better team but ducks are finally starting to find the back of the net and get some momentum.
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Gonna take a stab with the only game on the board tomorrow. Ducks/Coyotes... yotes have been the better team but ducks are finally starting to find the back of the net and get some momentum.
Momentum I like it. Can you post games you have a strong feeling won't go to OT for Tues? I felt like I shouldn't have bet on the edm gm, but did because I have a history of not being the best at picking individual games.
You're thoughts could be heplful and I may look into games you mention and look at them through my lens. Some days I feel up to it others I just want to go on autopilot haha
0
Momentum I like it. Can you post games you have a strong feeling won't go to OT for Tues? I felt like I shouldn't have bet on the edm gm, but did because I have a history of not being the best at picking individual games.
You're thoughts could be heplful and I may look into games you mention and look at them through my lens. Some days I feel up to it others I just want to go on autopilot haha
Thanks for posting duckman, I'm glad to see you break out of your shell and reference 8 different gms. I am interested to see how you do.
Either way I am hoping for a handful of draws tonight because I bet on every gm these past 3 days as I previously said I would so far going 2/5. I saw no point in looking at each gm individually because as I said I bet on them all so I really don't care to. I hope at least 3 hit today as that would pretty much net in -.5 units, which I will gladly take at the present moment especially after you listed 5 gms that you think won't go to OT so my pool for games that may go to OT has dropped to 7.
At least I can root for your predictions to pan out if I lose big(possibly 8 units=[) I had a bigger rant, but thought I would save this thread from my outlandish viewpoints, but hope you(duckman) will accept my friend request so I can bounce some ideas off of you before unleashing them on the innocent viewers of this thread. Cheers and good luck!
0
Thanks for posting duckman, I'm glad to see you break out of your shell and reference 8 different gms. I am interested to see how you do.
Either way I am hoping for a handful of draws tonight because I bet on every gm these past 3 days as I previously said I would so far going 2/5. I saw no point in looking at each gm individually because as I said I bet on them all so I really don't care to. I hope at least 3 hit today as that would pretty much net in -.5 units, which I will gladly take at the present moment especially after you listed 5 gms that you think won't go to OT so my pool for games that may go to OT has dropped to 7.
At least I can root for your predictions to pan out if I lose big(possibly 8 units=[) I had a bigger rant, but thought I would save this thread from my outlandish viewpoints, but hope you(duckman) will accept my friend request so I can bounce some ideas off of you before unleashing them on the innocent viewers of this thread. Cheers and good luck!
Pit/Mon Pit is due for the draw Mon is a team of equal caliber both seeking their 2nd draw
I won't pick edm because they haven't been the same since their loss of their best player and they have went beyond the point since the last draw that they usually do and its better to wait once a team goes this long without one. Ana will eventually have a back to back draw, but not against a team that has gone this long without one.
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Pit/Mon Pit is due for the draw Mon is a team of equal caliber both seeking their 2nd draw
I won't pick edm because they haven't been the same since their loss of their best player and they have went beyond the point since the last draw that they usually do and its better to wait once a team goes this long without one. Ana will eventually have a back to back draw, but not against a team that has gone this long without one.
So this is going to be one of my final posts. After looking at the teams for an hour, I said that is enough. I can't look at stats anymore. Whether they are more obscure like mine are or tried and trued ones like pros use, I don't care I don't want to look at them. I just wanna go down with the ship in peace. I have 16 units left and am gonna burn em with the least amount of effort possible.
I bet 8 of the 12 gms, which I will probably regret not betting all 12. The games that I did not bet were: Nsh/Tor, Chi/NJ, Cgy/Tam and Car/Min. The first three seemed to be the most one sided ones to me and Car/Min I just didn't place in time lol. At first I didn't like it for the sake of Min but Car is at home and they haven't had any draws that are close to each other yet, In the past two years they never went 3 draws without one of them being within 1-2 gms of the last.
Maybe some of you are rooting for me, maybe not, but in the end I really just want to spend leisure time doing something I am proud of. I actually read a book and started watchign a TV series yesterday! It was amazing I highly suggest it. I think it's called the outernet haha GL to all you poor souls chasing the legal tender. Money and little pieces of metal...that's all it is.
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So this is going to be one of my final posts. After looking at the teams for an hour, I said that is enough. I can't look at stats anymore. Whether they are more obscure like mine are or tried and trued ones like pros use, I don't care I don't want to look at them. I just wanna go down with the ship in peace. I have 16 units left and am gonna burn em with the least amount of effort possible.
I bet 8 of the 12 gms, which I will probably regret not betting all 12. The games that I did not bet were: Nsh/Tor, Chi/NJ, Cgy/Tam and Car/Min. The first three seemed to be the most one sided ones to me and Car/Min I just didn't place in time lol. At first I didn't like it for the sake of Min but Car is at home and they haven't had any draws that are close to each other yet, In the past two years they never went 3 draws without one of them being within 1-2 gms of the last.
Maybe some of you are rooting for me, maybe not, but in the end I really just want to spend leisure time doing something I am proud of. I actually read a book and started watchign a TV series yesterday! It was amazing I highly suggest it. I think it's called the outernet haha GL to all you poor souls chasing the legal tender. Money and little pieces of metal...that's all it is.
Back by I-got-on-it demand i left at the exact wrong time as the draws have been flowing as she said, but no fear the next few weeks this should continue I believe, I will look into it more now that I have some time and decided to get back to the DRAWing board.
+300 for all gms tonight, with the numbers that have been going down as of recent a day with three gms should hit 1 making for a 1 unit gain.
0
Back by I-got-on-it demand i left at the exact wrong time as the draws have been flowing as she said, but no fear the next few weeks this should continue I believe, I will look into it more now that I have some time and decided to get back to the DRAWing board.
+300 for all gms tonight, with the numbers that have been going down as of recent a day with three gms should hit 1 making for a 1 unit gain.
WOW Easy- I just got done Posting this exact scenario/ situation in m Thread, and didn't have the foresight to scroll down and see you had one going on it already.
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WOW Easy- I just got done Posting this exact scenario/ situation in m Thread, and didn't have the foresight to scroll down and see you had one going on it already.
What were you thinking wild hog? I am going to try my best to do more descriptions of why one day or what teams and not just say bet on everything(although that would've made money from since I last posted.) But, anyway I am going to get back to having some substance to go off of and will share if I have something worth sharing. Did not get a chance to today, but I will try to have something ready tomorrow that can be critiqued.
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What were you thinking wild hog? I am going to try my best to do more descriptions of why one day or what teams and not just say bet on everything(although that would've made money from since I last posted.) But, anyway I am going to get back to having some substance to go off of and will share if I have something worth sharing. Did not get a chance to today, but I will try to have something ready tomorrow that can be critiqued.
Buf v NJ: BUF-2-2 no rest 2-0 when second gm involved
travel. Last year: started 3-3 then 1-12
rest of season 4/4 of wins were via draw.
4/8 of their first 8 gms last season there were 4 draws in.
NJ likes to draw? On 1 day rest strangely enough this year is
8-2 with both losses coming in OT(6/10 were draws) It looks clear to me this game will follow
the identical suit of NJ winning or losing in OT.
BUT, last year NJ was unexceptional on 1 day rest, but did
go to OT a fair amount still. Anyway
that is why I will bet DRAW +280
Car/Phi, SJ/Mon and Cgy/Nsh these teams are all both on 2+
rest, which I believe is the best time to bet on a draw(for most teams, still
room for improvement in picking the right ones). If I had someone else interested and
following such POSSIBLY useful stats we could have them for each of these teams
and know better of how they perform on 2+ rest.
Nonetheless I would say these 3 gms are all good picks to draw.
Fla vs NYI: FLA: Fla
on 2+ rest has hit 3/7 draws this year so that’s pretty good. I also see historically(last+this year)
speaking they should have a draw in their next 2 gms(they don’t usually go much
more than 5 gms without one)
Stl/Wpg I think they had multiple draws last year I like
this gm even though I have no stats on it.
Min/van I think MIN will win making it hard to bet on the
draw, though last year they went to OT more at home than they have this year. Van on the other hand is on their longest
streak without a draw presently(5 gms).
I don’t know what it means for the draw, but I think -150 is a steal for
ML in this situation.
Any and all comments are welcome…
My picks: Min -150 and Draw nj/buf and maybe car/phi,
sj/mon, cgy /nsh and fla/nyi Tis the season to be DRAWING;)
PS The only reason I have this much time for looking at
stats now is because I am on break in grad school til next year, hallelujah! But I won’t be able to keep up with stats at
that time, which is really why I was planning on quitting only a few weeks ago,
but tis a hobby so I want to do it to a lesser degree at least.
0
Buf v NJ: BUF-2-2 no rest 2-0 when second gm involved
travel. Last year: started 3-3 then 1-12
rest of season 4/4 of wins were via draw.
4/8 of their first 8 gms last season there were 4 draws in.
NJ likes to draw? On 1 day rest strangely enough this year is
8-2 with both losses coming in OT(6/10 were draws) It looks clear to me this game will follow
the identical suit of NJ winning or losing in OT.
BUT, last year NJ was unexceptional on 1 day rest, but did
go to OT a fair amount still. Anyway
that is why I will bet DRAW +280
Car/Phi, SJ/Mon and Cgy/Nsh these teams are all both on 2+
rest, which I believe is the best time to bet on a draw(for most teams, still
room for improvement in picking the right ones). If I had someone else interested and
following such POSSIBLY useful stats we could have them for each of these teams
and know better of how they perform on 2+ rest.
Nonetheless I would say these 3 gms are all good picks to draw.
Fla vs NYI: FLA: Fla
on 2+ rest has hit 3/7 draws this year so that’s pretty good. I also see historically(last+this year)
speaking they should have a draw in their next 2 gms(they don’t usually go much
more than 5 gms without one)
Stl/Wpg I think they had multiple draws last year I like
this gm even though I have no stats on it.
Min/van I think MIN will win making it hard to bet on the
draw, though last year they went to OT more at home than they have this year. Van on the other hand is on their longest
streak without a draw presently(5 gms).
I don’t know what it means for the draw, but I think -150 is a steal for
ML in this situation.
Any and all comments are welcome…
My picks: Min -150 and Draw nj/buf and maybe car/phi,
sj/mon, cgy /nsh and fla/nyi Tis the season to be DRAWING;)
PS The only reason I have this much time for looking at
stats now is because I am on break in grad school til next year, hallelujah! But I won’t be able to keep up with stats at
that time, which is really why I was planning on quitting only a few weeks ago,
but tis a hobby so I want to do it to a lesser degree at least.
A lil dissapointed that the nj/buf nj did what I expected, but buf has shown to be 2-2 on no rest and the two wins by more than 1 goal so I went with 6/10 draws hitting for NJ on this amount of rest, which did not work out.
nyi/fla was not really a good bet tbh other than fla 3/7 on draws on this much rest. So the percentages were with both of those.
wpg/stl was a shot in the dark based off of them hitting the draw 2/5 times last year when playing.
the multi rest teams pulled it out with the 2/3 hitting, which although shows promise for that route, but I did note that phi is one of the teams that has a proclivity to draw on 2+ rest, while the other teams I know less about at present.
min -150 was called aptly=) Should've went with NJ ML as I pointed out that little lead.
Overall happy with the picks, hopefully some insight will be gained from them.
0
+2.8 units for Tues not bad
A lil dissapointed that the nj/buf nj did what I expected, but buf has shown to be 2-2 on no rest and the two wins by more than 1 goal so I went with 6/10 draws hitting for NJ on this amount of rest, which did not work out.
nyi/fla was not really a good bet tbh other than fla 3/7 on draws on this much rest. So the percentages were with both of those.
wpg/stl was a shot in the dark based off of them hitting the draw 2/5 times last year when playing.
the multi rest teams pulled it out with the 2/3 hitting, which although shows promise for that route, but I did note that phi is one of the teams that has a proclivity to draw on 2+ rest, while the other teams I know less about at present.
min -150 was called aptly=) Should've went with NJ ML as I pointed out that little lead.
Overall happy with the picks, hopefully some insight will be gained from them.
Sorry Easyfeller- I didn't get a chance to drop in earlier, but
from briefly skimming through this, I got the impression you called 2 of the 3 OT games tonight, which if that's true, is absolutely phenomenal, but then reading more, I got a little confused, and can't keep my eyes open to dig deeper- which I will tomorrow, and either respond here, or PM you.
So far, looking so good and will hopefully have some good things to discuss with you tomorrow
0
Sorry Easyfeller- I didn't get a chance to drop in earlier, but
from briefly skimming through this, I got the impression you called 2 of the 3 OT games tonight, which if that's true, is absolutely phenomenal, but then reading more, I got a little confused, and can't keep my eyes open to dig deeper- which I will tomorrow, and either respond here, or PM you.
So far, looking so good and will hopefully have some good things to discuss with you tomorrow
Well I wouldn’t go that far haha, earlier in the posts
duckman called 3 in a row. I really hit
2/6 yesterday then min -150. As for
todays gms BET THEM ALL…or don’t see if I care, was/ott is definitely worth the
chance. Pit/Bos not so sure, truth is I
have the tendency to ALL in days with 1-4 gms because the risk is low and
reward high if 2 hit, so I am going with that, the less thought the better.
0
Well I wouldn’t go that far haha, earlier in the posts
duckman called 3 in a row. I really hit
2/6 yesterday then min -150. As for
todays gms BET THEM ALL…or don’t see if I care, was/ott is definitely worth the
chance. Pit/Bos not so sure, truth is I
have the tendency to ALL in days with 1-4 gms because the risk is low and
reward high if 2 hit, so I am going with that, the less thought the better.
I forgot to bring my computer home so I am doing the best I can with what I got. Draws:nj/fla and Los/mon ML ARI -120 and Ana -140
Yes, I know I lost 2 units yesterday when I really didn't look at the games and just bet both, though I actually liked ott/was, but nonetheless i will make sure to have a good reason to bet all gms next time if there ever is one because it is dangerous thinking to not think haha best of luck to all
0
I forgot to bring my computer home so I am doing the best I can with what I got. Draws:nj/fla and Los/mon ML ARI -120 and Ana -140
Yes, I know I lost 2 units yesterday when I really didn't look at the games and just bet both, though I actually liked ott/was, but nonetheless i will make sure to have a good reason to bet all gms next time if there ever is one because it is dangerous thinking to not think haha best of luck to all
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