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Carolina vs. Toronto over 6 -127 12.70 units
Leighton is expected to get the start for the Canes tonight. He sports a lifetime GAA of over 6 against the Leafs in two career starts. Should Cam Ward get the call instead, he’s he's 3-7-1 with a 3.65 goals-against average in his last 12 contests.
Toskala has a career GAA of 4.04 against the Hurricanes.
The numbers also tell us that both teams average more than 30 shots per game. The Canes and Leafs also average 3 or more goals each in their home/away scenarios and they both surrender that amount defensively in their home and away scenarios with Toronto allowing 3.48 goals against on home ice. It should be noted that the Canes are 14-6 “over” against teams that average more than 29 shots per game this season with those games averaging 6.9 goals.
Both teams are currently scoring way below their season averages but I fully expect those numbers to balance out. Toronto will come out firing tonight and the only thing that keeps me from betting on them is the fact that they are back from a long west coast road trip and the Canes finally get some healthy bodies back in the lineup.
Toronto has had 50 shots or more in two of their last 4 games. A sure sign that Maurice has told them to go all out at the net in the hopes of getting out of this funk. Defensively, Toronto stinks. Let’s be real. In the net, Toskala has been good but he’s not a number 1 in my book. Put it to you this way, he’s the best they’ve got right now.
Note too that the last 10 games between these two teams have produced a lot of shots on goal. (63.3)
If Toronto decides to go all out tonight to get off the losing skid, they will be exposed severely on the back end. Especially if Kubina joins the rush as he so often does when the Leafs take an offensive approach to the game. He easily traps himself deep in the other teams zone and against players with the speed and talent as the Canes possess, it can kill them.
Leafs games average 6.89 goals when they are the home favorite and both teams average 6 goals or more against conference opponents.
The Canes are 15-7 “over” vs. sub .500 teams this season Toronto has also seen their games following non-conference opponents average 7.3 goals this season.
Lots of other situational trends are available for review but my numbers make this game 7.4 which places me in a big play situation. I forcast both teams having a high probability of at least 3 goals each.
Cheers all and remember to only bet what you can afford to lose.
fever
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...... Leafs CAN'T SCORE! I repeat CAN'T SCORE! vs back-up goalies! 
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