NHL YTD 160-141 +51.18 units
Senators v Islanders over 5.5 4 units
This is only my second 4 unit play of the season but is supported by a ton of statistical and situational data. I wanted to write it up so people can decide for themselves if they want to pass, tail or fade. As always, bet within your means and only bet what you can afford to lose. Nothing is ever guaranteed, no matter how strong the play.
This is a meaningless game for both teams. I expect both teams to play loose and have a little fun out on the ice.
First we’ll start with the goaltending.
Anderson is expected to get the nod in net for the Senators. He carries a 2.64 GAA against the Islanders in 12 career starts. He’s 32-18 over the total in all his starts this season and is 14-8 over in road starts.
Nabokov is listed as the probable starter for tonight. He has a 2.92 GAA in his career against the Senators. He’s 21-14 over in all starts this season and 13-8 over in home starts.
The Sens have been an over team all season going 45-32 over the total. They are 27-18 over the total in the second half of the season the last 2 seasons and play their 4th game in 7 nights tonight a situation that has seen them go 23-15 over with those games averaging 6.4 goals per game.
The Sens have been particularly profitable playing over the total off a game that saw them go under off 1 or more games. They are 22-9 over the total off 1 or more unders this season with those games averaging 6.8 goals.
The Islanders have also been an over team this season going 44-32 over in all games with their games averaging 6.1 goals per game on the season and 39-24 over at home with a total of 5.5 the last 3 seasons.
In the second half of this season they are 14-5 over with games averaging 6.6 goals and 19-8 over off a division game with an average score of 6.5 goals. Playing off 2 straight division games they are 12-4 over the last 2 seasons averaging 6.5 total goals. Coming off 1 or more unders this season they are 20-11 over with these games averaging 6.4 total goals and they are 23-9 over the total having lost 2 of their last 3 games averaging 6.6 goals in those games.
If they are off a loss vs a division rival they are 15-6 over the last two seasons averaging a combined 6.5 goals. In any game following a division game the Iles have seen those games aveage 7 goals per game and off 2 division games they have averaged 6.6 goals.
Some stat related situtions that apply include.
The Senators are 25-16 over the total against teams that average 29.5 or more shots on goal (6.4) and in the second half of the season against those same teams they are 18-10 over with those games averaging also 6.4 goals.
The Islanders are 11-3 over against teams that are poor power play killing teams who allow greater than 17.5% shorthanded goals with those games averaging 6.8 goals the last 2 seasons. If those teams allow more than 19% shorthanded goals on the penalty kill the Islanders are are 8-1 over the last 2 seasons with those games averaging 7.3 total goals.
NY is 16-4 over at home against teams that allow more than 29.5 shots per game in the second half of the season the last 3 years with those games combining for 6.6 goals on average. If we then combine Islander games against teams that allow more than 29 shots and allow 17% or more shorthanded goal opportunities they are 10-2 over in the second half the last 2 seasons with those games averaging 7.1 goals.
The Sens, despite their poor penalty killing have a decent power play, scoring on more than 17% of their pp changes. The Islanders are 9-2 over at home against teams converting on 17.5% or more of their pp opportunities in the second half of this season with games averaging 7 goals.
Hot Forum Topics
