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SATURDAY - Suspect Lines IMO 11-3 YTD 78%

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11-3 so far in this experiment. 

I've got a busy Saturday with A LOT of capping to do. NCAAB(69-39-5 63%), NBA(2-1 66%), and NHL(11-3 78%). Don't get me wrong, I love having this many games to cap but time is not my friend on Saturdays. Stay tuned, I'll be posting the plays shortly.

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Posted: #2
6:08 - Chicago BlackHawks +140 vs Florida Panthers -155

7:08 - Vancouver Canucks +160 vs Toronto Maple Leafs -180

8:08 - Buffalo Sabres +170 vs Arizona Coyotes -189

Early First Take from an Average Joe aka Me:

IMO: OMG! Florida is only -155!?!?! JUMP ON IT NOW! LIKE RIGHT NOW!! I'm going to add them to all my parlays as well so I can get that EXTRA GUARANTEED $$$ They can't lose.   Blackhawks +.5 again I'm tempted to take Blackhawks -.5 but again I have to stay disciplined 

Toronto is in a similar situation as was NJ/SJ I know you guys don't see it this way, but this is based off my system. I'm going to not play this one and just track it. However, if you are a gambler (like me, so I might play it lol) I'd go Vancouver +.5 

And now onto Arizona. I'm not sure why this line is so high. I think the "experts" will say the line isn't high enough or its spot on. AND Buffalo is on a B2B and the Vegas Flu and Corona Virus and one of the guys from the team got a stripper preg and also had sex with a ladyboy and has a massive hangover. On top of all that, they can't find DOUG!  Buffalo +.5

I turn my W's to M's, yeah I flip those.
 
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Initial Potential Plays:
Chicago Blackhawks +.5 is a go go. Buffalo Sabres and their Vegas Flu +.5 is a go. Vancouver Canucks +.5 is a go if you want to gamble, but I will be tracking the results of this one.

As always, wait until goalies are confirmed and nothing crazy with lineup locks. I'll post the bets when confirmed for me. Always -.5 or +.5. 
I turn my W's to M's, yeah I flip those.
 
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AJMay
 
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A question, if you like the dogs why in the world would you turn a nice payback dog into a slight fave or pick'em ?

If you really think that +.5 is going to make such a big difference why just not play the OT prop and get back around 3.5 to 1 payback !!


 
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Quote Originally Posted by Lippsman:

A question, if you like the dogs why in the world would you turn a nice payback dog into a slight fave or pick'em ?

If you really think that +.5 is going to make such a big difference why just not play the OT prop and get back around 3.5 to 1 payback !!



Great question. 

For whatever reason, during my whole time tracking this, probably about 10+ exact scenarios(I know not a huge sample size) that for this particular system, when it favors the underdog and they go into OT. They end up losing. Just a recent example of this. NJ vs SJ. The play should have been +.5 at I believe -115 or -130. 2-2 was the score at the end of regulation. +.5 is a winner. They lost in OT 3-2. So yes, +120 for full game is great, but losing money is never good. So I'd rather take the -130/-140/-150 and win rather than +120/+140/+150 and lose. So far it has been profitable. Maybe in those 10+ games I've been extremely unlucky that every time my dogs have went into OT they lost? But I'd rather profit for now until it turns otherwise. 
I turn my W's to M's, yeah I flip those.
 
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Posted: #7
Quote Originally Posted by Lippsman:

A question, if you like the dogs why in the world would you turn a nice payback dog into a slight fave or pick'em ?

If you really think that +.5 is going to make such a big difference why just not play the OT prop and get back around 3.5 to 1 payback !!



I'm not sure I'm familiar with the OT prop you are referring to, you mind expanding/explaining on this?
I turn my W's to M's, yeah I flip those.
 
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Posted: #8

Blackhawks on the money line for me an_cheers lets roll

 

 
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Posted: #9

I think bruins -130 is to low . Your thinking cheap price to take a better team.  an_shake  I’m rolling with NYI  

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Posted: #10

Quote Originally Posted by fishmac:

Blackhawks on the money line for me  lets roll
Blackhawks haven’t lost on leap day since 1980 or so . Just saying .. 

Funny like a clown? Funny, like I’m here to amuse you ?
 
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Posted: #11
Quote Originally Posted by AJMay:


I try to make it as funny as possible. I know the hockey guys have a good sense of humor and can appreciate a good laugh. 
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Posted: #12
Quote Originally Posted by ZackofallSports:


I'm not sure I'm familiar with the OT prop you are referring to, you mind expanding/explaining on this?

At most books you can wager if a game goes to OT.  Most of the time it pays back around  3 or 3.5 to 1.

 
 
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Posted: #13
Quote Originally Posted by Lippsman:


At most books you can wager if a game goes to OT.  Most of the time it pays back around  3 or 3.5 to 1.

 

So you are saying make 2 separate wagers? One on the underdog straight up(ML) and another on the overtime prop? 
I turn my W's to M's, yeah I flip those.
 
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Posted: #14

GL Zach....LLLove the visitors TT Ovah in Sunrise, FL. this morning 

 
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Posted: #15
Quote Originally Posted by ZackofallSports:


So you are saying make 2 separate wagers? One on the underdog straight up(ML) and another on the overtime prop? 

No, I am saying where according to you where a number of these games are going to OT, just play the OT wager for the huge payback instead of turning a good sized dog into a pick'em or fave wager. 
 
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Posted: #16

Zach....do you have the LeftWingLock app?

 
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Posted: #17
Quote Originally Posted by Lippsman:


No, I am saying where according to you where a number of these games are going to OT, just play the OT wager for the huge payback instead of turning a good sized dog into a pick'em or fave wager. 

I think you misunderstood. I'm not saying I can predict when the game will go into OT. I'm saying IF I have a dog, and IF it goes into OT, my dog usually loses. 
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Posted: #18
Quote Originally Posted by DrLump:

Zach....do you have the LeftWingLock app?


No I do not. Not sure what that is 

Care to explain? 
I turn my W's to M's, yeah I flip those.
 
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Posted: #19
Quote Originally Posted by ZackofallSports:


No I do not. Not sure what that is 

Care to explain? 

Left Wing lock is a website that gives pucks info. 
 
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Posted: #20

Quote Originally Posted by ZackofallSports:

Quote Originally Posted by DrLump:

Zach....do you have the LeftWingLock app?
No I do not. Not sure what that is Care to explain?

I only use it for confirmed, starting Goalie

 
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Posted: #21

Quote Originally Posted by Goodfella333:

I think bruins -130 is to low . Your thinking cheap price to take a better team.    I’m rolling with NYI
  new_head_slap

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Posted: #22

Good Luck zack!

 
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Posted: #23
2/29/20 6:08pm  NHL Hockey  69 Chicago Blackhawks (1st 60 min) +½ -117* vs Florida Panthers (1st 60 min) 


That's all for today. BOLTA


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Posted: #24

I like them too, but (mostly) in a different, juicy way:

CHI TT O 1/2 1P -170

CHI TT O 2.5 GM -165

Both are plays against Bobrovsky and far from value hunting, Bob has let in 1 or more 1P pucks 9 times in his last 10 starts and allowed 3 or 3+ pucks in 7 of last 10.  Let's just hope that Bob is Bob today and that the Hawks weren't basking in that S.FL sun too long yesterday and look to close-out their road trip on an even note.

Added - Lucky Day Play:  CHI Win by 2 +750

HAWKS
PANTS
 
 
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Posted: #25

Quote Originally Posted by ZackofallSports:

Quote Originally Posted by Lippsman:

A question, if you like the dogs why in the world would you turn a nice payback dog into a slight fave or pick'em ?If you really think that +.5 is going to make such a big difference why just not play the OT prop and get back around 3.5 to 1 payback !!
I'm not sure I'm familiar with the OT prop you are referring to, you mind expanding/explaining on this?
3 way betting, dog. fave, regulation tie

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