Saturday LEANS:
Pitt vs. Philly
I think this is the best game of the day. Both teams don't really stand out on the road or at home, and both teams aren't really playing their best defense of the season (both allowing >12% opponent shooting L5). I do think that Pitt plays a little better defense and can skate with Philly in this one. I feel like since both teams are just not playing stellar D right now, we could see a good amount of goals in this one, so I'm kind of liking the over, but I'm going to keep my eye on the line.
LEANS: Pitt -105, o5.5 -135
Chicago vs. Columbus
There's not really much to work with as far as consistency is concerned for either team. That goes for the moneyline and total, as this could either be a 6-5 goal-fest, or a 2-0 snooze-fest. I do like Columbus here at good + money, but it'd have to climb A TON before I played them. From a statistical standpoint, I think they've got a legit shot.
Leans: Columbus +135 small/none at all
Wild vs. Blues
Not much to say about this one. St. Louis is starting to scare me a little bit in the way that they could stand infront of my Rags for Lord Stanley's Cup. If I were going to play this game, it'd be blues ML in a small parlay or something.
Leans: NO SU ML play.
Leafs vs. Canucks
Another heavy ML favorite here that I refuse to play SU. Toronto has been shooting at 6.2% L5, and allowing 12.5%. In that same span, Vancouver is converting at 11.9% and allowing 7.4%. I like Toronto's ability to get a few quick ones though, as I don't think Vancouver's D is unbeatable. I don't see much here to say that Vancouver doesn't win this 5-2. Maybe I'll parlay Nucks/Blues ML's?
Leans: Vancouver -1.5 +160, o5.5 -125
Caps vs. Lightning
I feel like the Bolts can win this game through their offense, as they're converting 10.7% L5, and 11.9% of their shots at home all season. Only thing that keeps me off the bolts here is that they're allowing ~11% at home and 9.3% L5. I just think the Caps are one of the NHL's more "opportunistic" teams. I do like the bolts here, but won't play it unless line movement goes my way, but I do like the over. I think we see 4-3 here.
LEANS: o5.5 -135, Bolts -125
Canes vs. Isles
No lines yet here, but I'm liking the Canes to continue to play some solid D. I see the total here set at 5, and the canes at a -130 or -140 price. If the total comes out at 5.5 then I'll more than likely be playing the under heavily, and if the canes come out at a more negative number, I'll probably just stay away from that. I like a good 3-1 or 3-0 game here.
LEANS: Canes, Under
Stars vs. Coyotes
The coyotes are allowing their opponents to convert on only 2.8% of their shots in their last 5 games. You'd be hard pressed to find someone to bet against that stat. The Yotes are performing about the same on the offensive side, as the stars are doing a little worse than season average for offense and defense. I'm not surprised to see the Yotes as such heavy favorites, but these are the games that just kind of make you stand back and observe. I would love the total if it were 5.5, but i'm not surprised it's 5 at all. I just don't want to risk it because I have one of those gut feelings that Dallas is the team that could come out and score 5 against a streaking Yotes D. I'm going to watch some line movement on this one, and maybe take the over depending on what it does.
LEANS: o5 -125
Calgary vs. LA Kings
Calgary is obviously a different team away from home, as evidenced by their 11-21 road record, but LA is just barely average at home. BUT, Calgary has played three of their last 5 away, and even then are still hitting 10.8% of their shots, which is well above their season road average of 8.9% on the road. On top of that, they seem to be playing well enough D to at least keep them in these games. On the other end of the Ice, LA is just playing to their season averages so far. At home, they're only averaging about 2 goals a game, so I don't see why that'd change. I think Calgary's recent performances and outings are enough to merit a small ML play on the + money. As far as the total, it's at 5 and there's just too much room for error here. I could see this being an "under" win at a 3-1 flames win, a push at a 3-2 flames win, or an "over" win at a 4-2 flames victory. I don't think we'll see the flames get to 4, but they've been streaking, and I think taking the under would be too risky.
LEANS: Flames +130
Lots of - numbers here. Really gonna make me rethink everything here as I hate paying so much juice in hockey betting. But here are my current leans, which can always change according to line movement:
(*) = weak/small, to no play
(***)= strong/large
Pitt -105 (**)
Pitt/Philly o5.5 -135 (**)
Columbus +135 (*)
Vancouver -1.5 +160 (*)
Vancouver/Leafs o5.5 -125 (***)
Bolts -135 (**)
Caps/Bolts o5.5 -125 (**)
Canes ML (***)
Canes/Isles UNDER (***)
Yotes/Stars o5 -125 (*)
Flames +130 (**)
I'll be back later/tomorow to post my final card. Like I said, I want to see some line movement first. BOL to everyone. Thoughts/comments/criticisms strongly encouaged.
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