tech angles NHL

Hey there indigo! Do you have the query of teams tied entering series game 5 that lost the previous game with 3 or less points? Appreciate it brother. 

Season to date going into the weekend.....9-6, +11.19

Saturday....3-4, -1.49 units

Sunday....3-5, -5.70 units

Total....15-15 straight up, +4 units

Not what I would have wanted....will not bet on Saturday/Sundays for the rest of the playoffs and will curtail my NBA betting.

NHL playoffs, game 5....this is where regression typically takes place from what has transpired the first four games.

Away dogs with a 1-3 series deficit in round 1, off a home loss have gone 17-12,  straight up with an ROI of +64%, 12-15 o/u.....they have also gone 20-6 on the puckline for an ROI of 22%.

playoffs=1 and series game=5 and series wins=1 and round=1 and A and D and p:H and p:L

If the net o/u margin for the series has been OVER, this moves to 10-3 straight up, 4-7-2 o/u......ON Panthers, Islanders, Jets, Lightning and all UNDERs

This won't be for the fainthearted....obviously teams up 3-1 have dominated, and goals are being scored right and left....I am taking a deep breath and going against the public consensus in almost every case.

Plays:

1)  Panthers +205, 2 units

2)  Panthers UNDER 6, 2 units

3)  Wild +130, 2 units

4)  Wild UNDER 5', -125, risking two units

5)  Islanders +140, 2 units

6)  Islanders UNDER 5', -145 risking two units

7) Jets +150, 2 units

8)  Jets UNDER 5', +109, 2 units

9)  Lightning +140, 2 units

10) Lightning UNDER 6', 2 units

In round 1 of the NBA playoffs with the series tied 2-2 and off a loss of less than four points those teams have gone 11-1 straight up, 9-3 ATS.....at home they have been 9-0 straight up, 7-2 ATS.....the norm this year has been for when teams have lost a star player to rise up and win the next game before running into difficulty afterwards.....we'll see if that holds in the Kings/Warriors series.....I am hoping so......

Plays:

Adding....

11)  Seattle XFL Sunday, +3.5

Here's another query....in round 1 of the NHL playoffs, teams on the road off a home favorite loss in game four have gone 12-5 straight up in game 5, +52% ROI, and 16-1 on the puckline (+1.5), 5-9-3 o/u......Rangers, Wild, Islanders, Lightning

On the other hand, if the series is tied 2-2 and a team is off a home dog loss and now are away dogs those teams have gone 3-11 straight up, 5-9 o/u.....VERSUS Kings

Plays:

1)  Panthers +205, 2 units

2)  Panthers UNDER 6, 2 units

3)  Wild +130, 2 units..................................loser -2 units

4)  Wild UNDER 5', -125, risking two units......winner +1.6 units

5)  Islanders +141, 2 units..........................winner 2.82 units

6)  Islanders UNDER 5', -145 risking two units...winner +1.38 units

7) Jets +150, 2 units

8)  Jets UNDER 5', +109, 2 units

9)  Lightning +140, 2 units

10) Lightning UNDER 6', 2 units

11)  Seattle Sunday XFL +3.5, 2 units

12)  NBA Kings game 5, -1.5, 2 units

Playoffs season-to-date won/loss 18-16, +7.8 units

@Indigo999

 I think you need about 8 more picks

Whowins is an awesome website for comparing how a team has done in the past in the EXACT sequence of where each individual series is.  Using the killersports website after that to compare the line the market has to what the line actually is, is a very good way to shop for +EV possibilities.

We'll give examples....

On the Whowins website, we click on the Boston/Florda matchup and we see in the exact sequence of games that teams in Boston's situation in their upcoming matchup with the Panthers that they've won 27 and lost 19 games in all playoffs series, and that in the quarterfinals they've been 10-10 in game 6.  27 out of 46 is a winning percentage of 58.7%

We go to the killersports website and after doing some tweaking we end up using this query text....

HF and -170<line<-160

Teams in that range of betting lines win 57.8% of their games in a sample size of 691 games....close enough for our purposes

The line on Boston is -205, when their expected line based on teams in Boston's situation should be the median of -170 and -160, or -165.....we have a +EV play on the Panthers.

Other teams in their game 5...how have they gone in the past in their exact sequence of games?.....

a)  Teams in  Toronto's situation have gone have a won/loss record overall of 40-43, 11-18 in the quarterfinals....big +EV on Tampa Bay

b)  Hurricanes 14-7 overall, 5-5 in the quarterfinals....differing data makes this one a probable pass.

c)  Devils 22-6, 10-3 in QFs.....big +EV on Devils

d)  Avalanche, 19-23.....10-13......Kraken are a HUGE +EV possiblity

e)  Stars 24-19, 10-8

f)  Golden Knights 20-23, 6-11.....HUGE +EV on Jets

g)  Oilers 44-43, 19-18,.....HUGE +EV on Kings

Data from the whowins website....

We'll look at the exact sequence of each playoff series and extrapolate an implied line and compare it to the market's line.

1)  Teams that have mimicked Seattle's sequence of games have won 23 times and lost 19 times in their game 6s.....that is an implied line of -121.....the betting line is Seattle +138.....+EV play on the Kraken. 

2)  Bruins' sequence 27 wins and 19 losses.....implied line of -170

3)  Lightning 43 wins and 40 losses...implied line of Tampa Bay -106, with betting line of +134....+EV on Lightning.

4)  Hurricanes 14 wins and 7 losses....implied line -150...market price of +110...+EV on Carolina

5)  Jets 23 wins and 20 losses....implied line of -115....market price +167....+EV on Jets

6)  Devils 22 wins and 6 losses...implied line of Devils -349...market price of -112...+EV on Devils

7)  Dallas 24-19.....implied line -126....betting line +100......+EV Stars

8)  Oilers 24-19.....implied line Oilers -126....betting line -163...+EV LA Kings