Thursday Jan 5th - Ad Lib Puck Talk

I’ll take a turn and get us started today.

Last night’s games: Wow, stand up if you predicted the Ducks blanking the Stars?   I'm still sitting as well.  Devils and Wild took care of business, so not too surprising.  On to today.  Pretty big slate.  Some pretty big games too. 

I’ll start with my boys down in Raleigh.  Preds usually play Canes tight, although Canes took care of business in their two meetings last year.  I kinda like Canes to bounce back after the loss to Rangers, but the price tag is high.  Regulation play, most likely. 

Laffs host the Sea Monsters.  Two Under teams that have been trending towards the Over, esp. Loafs (8-2 Over last 10 – SEA 6-4).  Have to see who starts in net, but Brubauer sighting might Lean me to the Over.

Pens fly into Vegas after a tight loss to the B’s.  Pens on 5 game losing streak and 6 of last 7.  Hope the Vegas Flu doesn’t hit them.  Hard not to like VGK at -120, but Pens are a Veteran team, and this trip West maybe snaps them out of the funk.

Last Big Boy matchup has the B’s going to LA-LA Land.  B’s looking more mortal their last 4, and LA came in to Beantown and beat them in their own barn just a few weeks ago.  Last three meetings Road Team got the W with 2 games going to OT.  And the kid Copley is turning heads, maybe he can steal one against the mighty Bears.

Blues go to East Rutherford for a tilt with the Pitchforks.  NJD coming off an easy Roadie in Hockeytown, whilst Blues are off a days’ rest after beating Loafs in a wild 6-5 SO Win.  Oil host the Fisherman.  Can Oil figure this out?  They looked terrible against Kraken, and have been very inconsistent IMO.  Isles are hard to figure out too.  Shiny Quarter might be best way to bet this game.

Avs travel to BC to take on Nuks.  Hard to figure, both teams on losing streaks out of the Christmas break.  No feel for this game, love to hear any angles/situationals you all got for this game.  Rags line seems too short.  Habs suck something awful, and are playing that way to boot.  Thought this would be Rags -250 or higher.   Same for Caps game.  I jumped on Caps last night Reg. at -115.  Hope you all can tell me why that was not a good bet.

Lastly the Yotes travel to Gritty Land.  Both teams lighting the lamp lately, and the Over should be a popular play, as Philly scoring almost 4 GF last ten and Zona 4.5 GF since the break and north of 3 GF last 10.

So, what the hell do y'all want to talk about...?

I'm hoping someone else can start digging into the overnight projection changes on moneypuck.com with me so I know I'm not crazy.

They continue to be super suspicious, for example, why did the Devils projection drop SEVEN points overnight, yet their overall power ranking (5) and the Blue's overall power ranking (24) are the same as yesterday? These oddities aren't explained in the about section which happens to be extremely thorough in its details of how they arrive at the projected win %. Vegas dropped NINE points overnight with no movement in the power rankings. They are 8th and Pittsburgh is 21! Interestingly enough more often than not, when these numbers drop so much to the relative implied probability (vegas moneyline) it brings the edge down to around 3% right below the 4% edge I've more or less landed on as the sweet spot. Maybe I'm overly suspicious - but maybe some of you smart cappers have some thoughts, it's driving me crazy.

OK - so the days rest may be included in the overnight projection - whereas the Devils played last night, so this may account for the drop. But that doesn't explain the drop with Vegas.

@peelpub94

Don't know, but I am always suspicious of any sites that publish data (other than pure stats) on predicted outcomes, betting handle, etc.  Do they state what goes into the math?  Weights/Factors/Situations etc?

Too much fishy shit going on to trust much of anything other than my own capping or advice from folks in here.   That said, I am not having a great year (down almost 20 units), so WTF do I know...

@dyamarik

 There is 0 affiliation with sports books or handle, etc on the site, just pure projections. They do state what goes into it, but it's not clear what the overnight projections change includes. 

I think @rustie and @omegapix have been using the site as well. 

Peel, I have been using the site, but you asked for smart cappers to chime in so? 

Seriously though I don't use their projections till they are posted gameday, AND I do make my own lines and compare the two. Often times we are on the same page, but not always. Also their lines do not and cannot include starting goalies which in my opinion is a sometimes a game changer. As for their Power Rankings I find them totally unreliable and also make my own based on points projections. I guess I'm saying that I don't just totally rely on MPuck. I just checked their Power ranks now (as I usually don't) and see that they have the Sharks at # 16 ahead of teams like the Pens and NYR and Winnipeg to mention a few, WHAT???.

As a aside I also have a different threshold than you are using, I use 4% for Dogs, 2% for Faves and remove Vig to get a true idea of edges, when we're dealing with such small %ages I think it important to know true (or at least what I perceive to be true) probabilities. Removing the vig gives you the true idea of what Vegas is thinking (as you know).

Sorry if I didn't answer your question, but I really don't know how or why their projections change, I use them as a reference only.

Only thing I can think of Peel is that MoneyPuck is putting a lot more weight into recent performance than overall performance, which is what I would prefer to use.

Recent performance is useful but if weighted too heavily can screw with the Rankings too much?

Also, thanks Dy for getting the thread going today in Doc's absence 

@rustie

 Really appreciate your thoughts. I like to get an all-encompassing view of things. 

Patches back for canes tonight

eichel back for Vegas 

i am working out of service today with limited access to internet and little to no time to research this, but I am wondering how teams fare the game after the winter classic? 

is this a let down spot for Boston? Jake debrusk on IR…

backstrom and tom Wilson should be back with caps next week… look for caps to go on a run! 

Flyers have won 3 in a row.. yotes have played good lately, although they lost to Florida and Tampa last two, they have been putting the puck in the net vs some good teams of late.. what’s that stat of zona vs the east? If they lost the last two vs the east then this means they’re due for a W right? Lol..yotes have lost the last 10 games they’ve played on the road tho.I really lean yotes as a dog but would be breaking my own rule of never bet against a streak..

speaking of streaks, habs have lost last 6 in a row and have been on the road since Dec 17.. aside from Xmas break of course but last home game was a 5-1 loss to Tampa.. what’s Vic’s scenarios? Fade the home team in their first game back from a week+ long road trip? For as bad as MTL been, why are rags not favored more??

soeaking of road trip, did you know caps are 5-0 last 5 games on the road? And 7-3 last 10…CLB just snapped a big losing streak with a win over Chicago but put up a 4-0 dud to follow up that win. They’ve got Carolina then wash then Tampa on deck next 3.. cue another losing streak? Or does that 4-0 loss light a fire under their ass??… I doubt it…

clash of the recent strong starters in canes and preds.. preds 1p 4-1 L5 and canes 5-0 L5, preds 3-0 last 3..

speaking of strong starters recently, kinda are 3-0 last 3 in 1p..

canucks been starting good, 3-1-1 L5 while avs 0-4-1 in the 1p.. avs 0-7-3 in the 1p last 10, yikes!

I am out of time, gotta go will check back in later.. all I could dig up in the 20 mins of free time this morning..

kings are 3-0 1p last 3, not kinda lol

Wish I could help Peel but I agree, I'm totally confused by the recent overnight projection changes. Like you said, has to be related to days off?

I want to talk world juniors for some day time puck action.  Swedes vs US of A.  Thoughts????  What's the play?  Looking for USA -1.5 but not offered at Fanduel.  They have -2.5 for 2.76.  No thanks for that.  Looking to parlay a play on this game + chezcia under 2.5 TT 

Maybe I misunderstood what you are asking.  But I am pretty sure they are using days rest, projected goalies, form trends, injuries, etc.   I think they take all of those variables and constantly are tweaking and adjusting as new information comes in.  This is a game-projection only.
I think the power rankings are more a seasonal thing with a sort of built in lagging factor to adjust for a moving average type of ranking.  

In other words, one days projection should not necessarily affect a season long power ranking.  Unless, of course the projection turns out to be way off.  

Again, maybe I misunderstood the question.  

Swayman in for Boston.

Halak in for NYR.

Campbell in for EDM.

Nice work buddy and Gl. Thanks

Here streak for ya, Oil score goal 1st 10 minutes 17-4 at home, I see @ianduncs

GL Fellas

5-5-1 last night for a net loss of 0.09u

Playing:

Caps RL -120

Canes RL -135

Caps/Canes ML Parlay +103

Saros O30.5 -130

Oil/Isles Over 6 -115

Pens -105

Rags/Avs ML parlay +160

All 1/2u

Adding TOR/SEA 1P Over 1.5 -150 1 unit

Good luck Boys and Girls - gotta go tend to the new puppy we got for Christmas.  Wife and son need a break.  These little fuckers are very cute, but the do need some attending to...  WOOF!??

Hey Dy...BOL tonight with your plays  

Hey Intense...you too...BOL with your plays tonight  

Cheers Guys  

 Great thread. Long ass day's and no time to cap a damn thing. Too bad no AHL tonight.

So Vanecek is going back to back for the Devils tonight. He has not done that all year long. He faced 33 shots so, moderate work, but then the travel as well. Blues have scored 3 or more in 7 of last 10 games, including 4 of the last 5. Hmmm. Blues tt? 

I mean come on...Halak in net. He has started 11 games and he has given up 3 goals in 9 of them. This is either and over or a Habs tt game. 

The Yotes go into Florida and score 3 vs Tampa and Florida and now has to face a Flyers team? Hart first game since 12/23, Rust? 

Blues, Habs and Yotes tt's are on the list, also looking at the over in Edmonton. 

blues , kings , avs should hit tonight 

yotes should score tt +2.5

canes should win 

Blues ML and avs reg

hope that hit 

BTW...we are now officially in the dog days of the season, now until trade deadline, imo. Things get a little whacky at times. Teams take nights off, ie Dallas last night. Just my opinion.