2010 Tour de France

Don't think Kreuziger will finish on the podium. Doesn't have the maturity yet. Maybe next year.

Contact sportingbet. Just send them an E-mail: sports@sportingbet.com.au and quote some KOM riders.

Martin has beaten Cancellara twice in time trials this year and nearly beat him in a technical Suisse one.

This is straight with not many turns so if anyone beats Cancellara, it's Martin, Wiggins or Boasson-Hagen. I'm going to wait for a few head to heads.

Hey Bolar,

Always value your insight on the Tour De France each year.. What do you think of these two bets? Leaning over..

Cavendish - Over/Under 3.5 Stage Wins

Contador - Over/Under 2.5 Stage Wins

Thanks for your time mate and Best of Luck!

Whilst Cavendish has been in crap form he should get at least 4 wins. He hasn't looked as convincing as other years though. But he's peaking for the Tour. He still has the best lead-out train in the world. What are the odds for that bet?

In regards to Contador, I would lean under 2.5 stage wins. He only won two last year. A MTF and a time trial. A similar thing could happen this year. He could win three or more but it depends on how much time he loses on stage three, if any.

Thanks for your insights.. It is really helpful!

Sorry I forgot to post the odds.. They are:

Cavendish

Over 3.5 Stage Wins $1.80

Under 3.5 Stage Wins $1.95

Contador -

Over 3.5 Stage Wins $1.75

Under 3.5 Stage Wins $2.00

It is with Sportstab.. They also have an Aussie Riders Stage Over/Unders:

Under 1.5 Stage Wins - $1.50

Over 1.5 Stage Wins - $2.45

Stage 3 is a cobbled stage. A lot of cobblestone sections. A featherweight like Contador may struggle. If Contador loses time, his odds will go out and then that's the chance to get on him. If he doesn't lose time, his odds will stay the same.

He should win it all but wait till after stage 3 until you back him.

I would take Cavendish over 3.5 wins. I mean if his form is there, he'll be hard to beat as usual. $1.80 is worth it.

I think you mean Contador under/over 2.5 and not 3.5. If it is actually 3.5 then bank it. If it's 2.5, it's still good value.

Aussie stage riders: This is an interesting one.

Look at the Aussies in the race. Gerrans, Lloyd, Sulzberger, Renshaw, Rogers, Evans, McEwen, O'Grady, Hansen

Rogers won't win a stage. Evans may hunt for stage wins. O'Grady is too old same with McEwen. Renshaw is a helper, as is Hansen. This is Sulzbergers' first tour. Lloyd won a stage in the Giro and Gerrans has won stages before.

I would leave it alone at those odds. If anything, I would look at the over hoping that O'Grady, Evans, Lloyd or Gerrans deliver. But I personally would leave it alone.

In regards to the cobble stage 3.

Seven-time champion Lance Armstrong has warned of impending "carnage" during the cobblestone-riddled stage three of the Tour de France.

Tuesday's 213km stage from Wanze in Belgium to Arenberg in northern France features seven cobblestone sections that threaten to cause punctures, crashes and, at worst, entirely end the hopes of several victory contenders.

Cancer survivor Armstrong is racing his final Tour campaign this month in a bid to win an eighth yellow jersey, although that looks a tough challenge.

Defending champion Alberto Contador of Spain is the overall favourite just ahead of Luxembourg's Andy Schleck. Armstrong finds himself among the handful of potential challengers.

While the 38-year-old Armstrong said it was great to be surrounded with his new RadioShack team, he reported his fears for stage three on his Twitter account.

"Done with the stage three reconnaissance. Going. To. Be. Carnage," the American said.

The Tour organisers admitted they wanted to shake the race up as early as possible in a bid to introduce drama into a first week of racing that is often criticised.

After a first stage from Rotterdam to Brussels on Sunday, when the peloton could be buffeted by vicious coastal winds, stage three will be the next big test.

Several victory contenders have reconnoitred the stage in a bid to get a feel for the cobblestones, which are normally used on big one-day classics such as the Paris-Roubaix.

However some teams, including Garmin-Transitions, refused to do so in the belief that finding the best position possible in race conditions Tuesday will be key to emerging with hopes unscathed.

Nevertheless the team's manager, former pro Jonathan Vaughters, admitted that no one is safe from the unpredictable threat of the cobbles.

"Someone will lose (all chance of winning) the race that day, I just don't know who it's going to be," said Vaughters.

"It could be Lance, could be Contador, could be (Andy) Schleck."

As I say, wait till after that stage before you back Contador. You would be crazy backing Contador straight away.

Hey Bolar!

Thanks for your response.

Sorry I did mean Over 2.5 for Contador.. The Australian Stage Riders is interesting but as you said it is best to leave it alone as too much doubt..

Looking towards the Cavendish bet... If he stays fit and doesn't get injured I think he should get at least 4...

It seems like you really know your Tour De France so here's hoping to a succesful season