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AFL - RD 12

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Posted: #1
Last Round: 11-5
YTD: 71-46

NM +6.5

:)
 
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Posted: #2
Well done last round mate! Great work, I've gone Hawthorn -59.5 at this stage with the early lines at Bet365. I've got my early work done for this week and I wish I'd had taken a couple of early lines but didn't. GC +45.5 was early, Carl were +1.5 as well. 

Look forward to the week lads!
 
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Posted: #3
Thanks buddy. #12 off to a good start with the Roos line in to +1.5 today with Tom Hawkins likely one match suspension. :)

Not sure about Hawks laying that many... But it is the Dons, and I think they got some more injuries didn't they?
 
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Posted: #4
Good luck this weekend bud, keep up the great work! 

unfortunately against you this week 
 
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Posted: #5
Quote Originally Posted by Erich777:

There is a podcast in the us during the NFL season with a bookie. Most of the public bets early. Sharps will only if the opening line is off. So the sharps wait to see if they get too frothy, and when they do $ comes in to take advantage. It would take a ton of public bets at the last minute to move a line (given the small transaction value comparatively). A few (or more) 5 digit bets will move the line.

Just continuing our discussion from the Rnd 11 post.

Yeah I agree with some of what you say but I don't think the public bet early, that's why they are the public. If anything the sharps bet early in the direction they don't like making the bookies push the line the wrong way, knowing the public will bet that same side as well. Then come back late with more cash right at the death just like you stated on the other team they bet against earlier for the smaller amount of cash. 

It's all game dependant but I reckon the bookies aren't very smart in the AFL at all. 71% of the time the opening line finishes outside of 12 points of the game result and 67% of the closing number too. 

I reckon punters in Australia are very green when it comes to the way they bet and most people I talk betting too are all public bettors, they have know idea about betting tactics at all. That's why it's so great having you guys to discuss with because your on another level.

What do you think about the above statement?
 
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Posted: #6
Quote Originally Posted by Erich777:

Thanks buddy. #12 off to a good start with the Roos line in to +1.5 today with Tom Hawkins likely one match suspension. :)

Not sure about Hawks laying that many... But it is the Dons, and I think they got some more injuries didn't they?

Yeah good get the Cats line, I think the Dons are getting to the stage where they are starting to get real tired, coming off a trip West, a small list, tired players and a Hawks lineup who have made a pact that they are going to keep pushing hard until the bye will smash the Dons.
 
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Posted: #7
There's been some interesting line moves today guys hasn't there? Have any of you seen the Ladbrokes InfoHub at all?

I've been tracking the Bet Tracker on their app and watching the Bet% and Cash% changes during the week.

PA v WB: 38% of bets for PA and 18% of cash with the Power yet the line is moving from 2.5 to a Pickem'.

Rich v GC: 49% of the bets for the Tigers and 62% of the cash with them as well but the line moves the other way, into -26.5 at one bookie!

Melb v Coll: 66% of bets and 61% of cash on the Demons side but the line moves into -3.5 at one book. Can still get -9.5 at CrownBet though.

What's your thoughts boys?
 
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Posted: #8
Quote Originally Posted by juniorwaugh:

Quote Originally Posted by Erich777:

There is a podcast in the us during the NFL season with a bookie. Most of the public bets early. Sharps will only if the opening line is off. So the sharps wait to see if they get too frothy, and when they do $ comes in to take advantage. It would take a ton of public bets at the last minute to move a line (given the small transaction value comparatively). A few (or more) 5 digit bets will move the line.
Just continuing our discussion from the Rnd 11 post.Yeah I agree with some of what you say but I don't think the public bet early, that's why they are the public. If anything the sharps bet early in the direction they don't like making the bookies push the line the wrong way, knowing the public will bet that same side as well. Then come back late with more cash right at the death just like you stated on the other team they bet against earlier for the smaller amount of cash. It's all game dependant but I reckon the bookies aren't very smart in the AFL at all. 71% of the time the opening line finishes outside of 12 points of the game result and 67% of the closing number too. I reckon punters in Australia are very green when it comes to the way they bet and most people I talk betting too are all public bettors, they have know idea about betting tactics at all. That's why it's so great having you guys to discuss with because your on another level.What do you think about the above statement?



I disagree with the first part, but agree with the second one about AFL bookies... We've only got a few years left of an advantage I reckon, so better make your dough now
 
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Posted: #9
Wow, that makes no sense to me that they are moving lines without cash
 
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Posted: #10
Ess v. Haw
Hawks 1Q -11.5

Port v. WB
Dogs 1Q +0.5
Dogs 1H +1.5
Dogs +2.5

Geel v. NM
Roos 1Q +1.5
Roos 1H +1.5 (not a typo)
Roos +2.5
Roos +6.5 (Grabbed Monday)

WCE v. Adel
Over 192.5

GWS v. Syd (sold-out, I think)
Giants 1Q -0.5
Giants -1.5

Melb v. Coll
Dees -6.5

Good luck - Erich
 
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Posted: #11
Adding Dogs +6.5
 
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Posted: #12
Adding Hawks -52.5
 
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Posted: #13
Adding Crows +12.5

Bevos play on them has given me that extra bit of confidence to pull the trigger on a play I liked all week. #s don't support it with Eagles record at home, and top 8 teams face offs generating 2-8 wins for visitors... But I just love the Crows momentum.
 
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Posted: #14
Wussing out of Crows line, haha

Adding Freo 1H -2.5 (tab)
 
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Posted: #15
Going other way in Perth:

Eagles -12.5

Enuf for today
 
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Posted: #16
HAHA! Funny. funny. Who's Bevo Erich? I'm going to wait till the game starts for the WCE/Adel game. See if I can find value once it starts.

The % Bets for the Cats game is 40% Cats, 60% Roos and the Cash% is 50-50. That's gone from 21% Cats and 79% Roos (cash%) on Wednesday. So reverse line movement happening there! 

WCE/Adel: 

Wed Bet %: WCE - 29%, Adel 71%
Wed Cash%: WCE 3%, Adel 97%

Now: Bet%: WCE - 43%, Adel 57%
Now Cash%: WCE - 34%, Adel 66%

No wonder the line has come in! I'm not confident on this either so I'll enjoy watching both. Have a great night lads.
 
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Posted: #17
Fuck, great night of footy!! Not too great for my bets, but amazing contested footy. Crows pulling it out H2 is amazing, wow.

Bevo is the guy from that awesome city of Austin TX (I moved here from there) who posts afl. He did well on the Crows tonight. I did take Eagles -7.5 1H too last min (won't count it here). But man, Eagles...

 
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Posted: #18
Blues 1Q -2.5
Blues 1H -4.5
Blues -9.5
 
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Posted: #19
What do you think about the Suns +8.5 1st Qtr?
 
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Posted: #20
Crash and burn on Blues, wow!

I think Suns line is a good play, but I think Tiges come out firing after a shit performance against Roos. Am playing that angle anyway... This could end poorly, haha.

Tiges 1Q 13+ win
Tiges 1H -17.5 line

 
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Posted: #21
Freakin jinxed today... Riewoldt misses from 15m
 
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Posted: #22
Crash and burn is right with the Blues. I got off the couch when they were up 10 with 2:30 left in the 1st. I said to my wife as long as the Saints don't kick two goals in the last 2 minutes I come back just after the start of the second and they've bloody kicked 3! It started from there, my fault for the jinx there! I'll take that one!
 
 
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Posted: #23
L NM +6.5
W HAW 1Q -11.5
W HAW -52.5
W WB 1Q +0.5
W WB 1H +1.5
W WB +2.5
W WB +6.5
L NM 1Q +1.5
W NM 1H +1.5
L NM +2.5
L WCE O 192.5
L WCE -12.5
W GWS 1Q -0.5
W GWS -1.5
W MEL -6.5
W FRE 1H -2.5
L CAR 1Q -2.5
L CAR 1H -4.5
L CAR -9.5
L RICH 1Q -13
L RICH 1H -17.5

11-10 on the round
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