AFL - RD 15

Last round: 6-14
YTD 99-80

WCE -72.5

Eagles crush teams at home, giving me confidence to lay a ton of points to the lowly (but much improving) Bombers. Eagles must have (haven't validated) best ATS record at home in the league. 6-1 with the loss to Crows. Also at home: 1Q ATS 6-1 (Freo Rd 3) and 1H ATS 6-1 (Freo again). Bombers have been okay in 1Q ATS, but never repeat a cover; missing by a mile after a cover (they covered v. Giants). Before getting triple-digit embarrassed by Hawks, Bombers lost to Dockers at Domain by 79 points.

Both teams coming off the bye.

Plays:
1Q -17.5
1H -35.5

Good luck Erich, Im with you on the Eagles tonight I saw BET365 had them -61.5 earlier today and put a few $$ on that line but now my account has been reduced to nothing.  Hoping for one last big win

Good catch Moo, I saw that too and put more on. Nice match cover, tho disappointed for my early line bets. I expected more from Eagles at home, esp since Bombers fared well early against Giants.

I'm going to pass on tonight's game... Two teams I typically fade. Line feels about right... For these two teams facing off. You just don't know what is going on mentally for each team on any given night. I initially leaned Tiges line, but just can't square how they lost by 70 to Roos only a few weeks ago. Port is now "really" desperate for a win (air quotes because they were desperate for a win v Freo, haha).

If the Nanny state were forcing me to make a bet, like they force their citizens to vote, hehe, I'd say Power by 6 goals.

But I could see Tiges clawing back late and losing by a goal or two.

Gonna play some of the NRL (N for Neanderthal) with Storm +4.5

BOL

Looks to be a great day of footy on tap gents. Have plays on all games.

GC v. STK
A much healthier Suns team, desperate for a win after ten straight losses, at home... facing a magnificent Saints team, off the win of its season, but a poor record away. I took some of the Suns with points, but also playing current line. I think the Suns by 3+ goals.
Plays: Suns 1Q -1.5, Suns -2.5

Syd v. WB
I mentioned in early in the week how absurd the total at 175 was, and it hasn't dropped more than a goal or so. I took some of that early, and will play the under again today. There are two main concerns with the Swans: Tippett out against a very physical team and its own poor record coming off the bye. On the plus side, the Swans are playing with motivation this season, and tend to play up to their opposition. I trust they respect the Doggies enough to bring their A-game... then again, Longmire is coach, so you never know.
Plays: Swans 1Q -3.5, Swans -14.5, Under 168.5

Carlton v. Collingwood
Before last weekend, Blues were -3.5 faves. By Monday they were 3.5 dogs. Now they're getting 10.5. Has to be the Pies Public all over this. Puh-lease pal, Blues are playing better, more consistent footy, and have gotten belted by far better teams these past two weeks. I think Blues win the game, and it hits under 170, but I'm determined to go 60% on my picks this round, so only taking the points.
Play: Blues +10.5

Well, decent day overall. Disappointing end with the Blues' performance. Good golly that was a shameful product on the tele last night. They just looked lost, and the worst has to be Silvagni's give-away of a sure goal to a teammate who choked a further out sure goal. That was my freaking cover Silvagni!!! :D

I've been studying up on today's game for the past hour, because I need 1 win to hit my 60% for the round... or 50% if I play and lose. The obvious warning sign / stay-away element is the whole 1 year anniversary thing. Just creates more uncertainty. Missed the line, now that it's out to 24.5. But I do think Crows cover. Missed the total, now that it's out to 196.5 from 185.5 earlier in the week (an idiot for not jumping on that one, but Sunday games always seem to get the least early attention in capping). Tempted by the Dees Under 85.5 Team Total, but not playing that yet. What does stand out for me, though, is the teams's 1Q performances, with the Crows dominating that stat. Dees score an avg 17 points past 6 games and allow 24 points. Crows score an average 26 points over same period, while allowing 17 points. Again, the 1 year anniversary introduces more uncertainty, increasing the chances of the Crows being too amped up to start (or far less likely, be flat). It's worth the risk to me.
Play: Crows 1Q line -5.5

GLTA - Erich

Cracker of a game this one, at halftime. Grab the live line if you have an appetite.

6-4 on the round, so quite happy with that + the NRL W and the "honorary" W on the Power by 6 goals, haha!!!