AFL - RD 21

Last RD: 7-5
YTD: 133-124

STK +33.5

I like this one!

Decent round last week, with the Swans crushing the Power being a bit of a let down for excitement, but encouraging nonetheless. I met Heney’s (Albino forward for the Swans) parents at a pub a couple hours after the match and chatted with them a bit. Good fun.



WB v. Collingwood @ Etihad

You just can’t tip the Pies against the Doggies (or much of anyone), at the line or otherwise. Pies should respond after losing to Tiges, and you think they’d make a game of this. Mr. Darcy is back in the lineup and Doggies lose a key defender (but get Suckling back). Going with one of the few season “guarantees” on this one; not comfy laying almost 3 goals though. Pies should fight hard enough (which mind you isn’t a consistent full game effort) to keep it around 3 goals.

Play: Under 164.5



Brisbane v. Carlton

Lions undefeated 1Q ATS at the Gabba this season.

Play: Lions 1Q +4.5



Hawthorn v. NM @ MCG

Roos haven’t played at the ‘G this entire season, which seems a bit odd. Anyway, a 3+ goal line doesn’t tempt me on the Hawks; a bit too high against a potentially desperate Roos team. They either haven’t covered or did only just off past losses this season as well. I’ll put some on the Win, because I definitely think they clear a win by almost 2 goals. Haven’t lost consecutive games at ‘G in 6 years or anywhere in 3 years (per League Teams).



GWS v. WCE @ Spotless

Giants also undefeated 1Q ATS at SPO, and only one ATS match loss, the previous one v. Pies. We know how the Eagles travel. Giants will be overcoming another “demon” in this game (never even beat the Eagles) as they have other ones this season. It will keep them focused.

Plays: Giants 1Q -6.5 / -25.5



STK v. Syd @ Etihad

Line has come down significantly since Sunday, which I took because I follow both these teams closely and knew it was knee-jerk reaction to Swans dominant win. This line feels about right given how well the Saints play this stadium, and Swans being on the road after two straight dominating wins. The pundits and others who are picking the Saints for the win here have a good drug connection, because they are clearly impaired. Haha.

Play: Saints +33.5 (Line currently at +20.5)



Port v. Melbourne @ Oval

This line doesn’t make sense when you think of recent performances. Even people who know how the Dees haven’t done well after a big win are picking them! Trust the bookies on this one.

Play: Power -14.5



Good luck! Erich

Hell of a match last night, wow!! For betting reasons only, that last 2 mins was more exciting for me than you in all likelihood. Had placed 3 live bets, with lines of Dogs -4.5 and -0.5 and a Total of U 189.5. Had a bit more on the -4.5 (would have gotten me even on the loss on my original U) than the U 189.5... but because Bont couldn't make it back on soon enough, it was literally inching towards 189 points and a win by 5!!! Haha, too much fun!

Anyway, been having another look at today's card. And what happens when you look long enough?

Can't pull the trigger on a Hawks' line play, despite Roos injuries. Feel like they'll cover, but they only need the win. So.... going to play my first multi of the season with a decent amount on it.
Play: Wins for each of Hawks/Giants/Blues @ 2.30

Brisbane v. Carlton @ Gabba
I've won many plays on Gabba Overs (and Doggie Unders at Etihad), but like the Doggie trend reversing, I see a reversal on today's total points at Gabba. This play isn't related to my loss last night; rather, was looking to play the Over. But I don't think either team scores the req'd 87.5 and 107.5 (Team Totals on offer at that total). Last time they met at Etihad: 64-102. Blues will pressure this game after falling off last round (let down round after a series of competitive rounds). Lions have averaged 73 over past 4 rounds there. Since round 11 v. Brisbane, Blues are averaging 61 points scored per game. The highest was 78, in Round 12. Now they're going to score almost 2X? Somehow, I think there is more chance of this happening than the other two, but will put some on it as a hedge.
Plays: Under 196.5 / Lions U 87.5 / Blues U 107.5

Where are the Blues? Cashed on multi at 40% early q2 and Lions under at 20% mid q1... Blues haven't won all season when losing the Q

Live bet at halftime:

Lions -36.5

Blues have never won a 2nd half when losing the 1st, much less clear it by 4 (margin is 40 at half)

Blues may never have won a 2H after losing the 1st, but in my haste I forgot that they were still facing the Lions... sigh...

Swans line has dropped enough, and I think this will be an intense fight for a good part of the game. Swans on a mission, and simply too much talent.
Plays: Swans -16.5 / U 172.5

E

Bizarre day of footy, but not shocking... I was typing so fast earlier that I made a typo: I meant Swans Team Total Under 172.5!! Wow!

I made the Swans line a big play.

Two big plays on the Suns for tomorrow, with a 50% more on the first one:

Suns 1Q -5.5
Suns -20.5

Tom Lynch (alone), and it's his 100th. Suns play hard, and Bombers have only been close in games when teams come in not taking them seriously. Suns continue to play hard, and there is zero reason to think they'll let up for this one. They travel well as well.

Not going to touch the Tiges game, but like them at the line. Most likely not touch Crows game, but it's hard for me to see them not covering.

Good luck - Erich

Kolodjashnij and Lynch, great footy! K "leading" the team in errors and Lynch choking everywhere on his 100? @GoldCoastSUNS wtf?!

Made some notes to self on the Suns-type play I made today. Kolo and Lynch awful 1H, shockingly. But oddsmakers knew, there you go.

Tiges keep it a fight early, so:

Tiges +8.5 1Q

Final plays:

Crows -45.5 and 1Q -10.5

seems like a good round?!?! 

No, not good buddy, 8-10 on the round. Port was the shocker, and I should have been more careful with the Suns plays. Obvious potential let down spot and now I know that 100 game matches aren't the same as 200 and up.

Giants was a bit of a shocker too... Ah well, two to go.

Usually with a losing bet I turn around and think to myself "why didn't I see that" but with AFL you get demons travelling to Adelaide and beating Port by 50 points and it's just something else. 

Yeah, a long time... And they had just broken a Hawks hoodoo the round before... With sport, you just never know... :)