Afl - RD 22

Grabbed this line before both teams play this round as I think it's 10+ points higher come Monday.

What a retard I am: that line I grabbed last week above is Adelaide -18.5. Too funny, was in a bit of a rush, clearly.

Last round 8-10
YTD 141-134

Hawks +4.5

Hawks ML

I like GWS -67.5 against Freo at Spotless. 

Yep, will be on Pies and Giants for sure as well... Comments later on those, but here is comments for tonight's plays:
WCE v. Hawthorn @ Domain
Eagles are playing better, and harder, though not consistently. Nic Nat is a big plus. That consistency piece is key, because we know that the Hawks can bring it when they need to. Lucky for us punters, they need to tonight. Hawks aren't as strong as they were last year due to injuries, and so top finish is more valuable to them. Not to mention that the Hawks own the Eagles (note: it may be mis-perception on my part, but a number of hoodoos have been broken this season) in recent past; and which team has clearly been performing to a level shown in the recent past? Hint: it ain't the Eagles.

NRL: Tigers +8.5

GWS v. Freo @ Spotless -68.5 / 184.5

Two straight non-covers at home for Giants, but they got this 1Q cover at least before letting the Eagles out-muscle them for the win. Their youth and inexperience (determination) is showing and is likely to surface again in the finals. Don’t see any value in the line now that it’s risen from Monday’s -57.5, though they likely cover. I think the Dockers can get close to 70, which means this definitely goes over.

Plays: Giants 1Q line -16.5, Over 184.5

Port v. Adelaide @ Oval +37.5 / 183.5

I’ve recalled my early season view on the Power and commitment to only fade them if playing, and regretting my play last round. They don’t have the talent but, especially, the will to put up much of a fight, for all four quarters. Crows have it all, and will run away with this.

Plays: Crows 1Q -8.5, Crows -18.5 (grabbed before their match last round), Crows -37.5

Swans/Roos Under 170.5

At HT:

Saints -24.5

Swans -11.5 at 3QT

FML Tigers have never held 2H after losing both of first two Qs... Idiot me for touching the game afterall

Storm 1H -4.5

FML #2 Giants don't cover 1st Q at home for the first time this season... Off a loss!!

Giants 1H -24.5 at QT

Going to play the angle that the Suns return to form (by form, I mean effort and pressure) and competitiveness early in games. Combine that with the Pies not playing Etihad that much and maybe not coming in fierce, and I figure a goal has a decent change.

Play: Suns 1Q +6.5

Warriors 1H +5.5
Warriors +12.5

Crows 3Q -10.5 at HT

Not a good round for me at all so far, though took some risky plays too. Some more of that today. :)

Carlton v. Melbourne @ MCG +28.5 / 158.5
Another game where I missed the value, the line out more than a goal since Monday. At the same time, I don't think this result lands in the 20-30 pt margin range... feels more like either a teens or less or a 40+ outcome. The Dees now have motivation to boost percentage, so should (emphasis on should) get this done. I'm encouraged by the consistency they've brought the past few weeks, excepting the Suns underperformance 3 weeks ago. That part gives me caution on this one, but I'll roll the dice and back them to take care of biz. Another risky aspect to this play is that the Blues may carry confidence into this from its last half at Lions.
Plays: Dees 1H -13.5 / -28.5 / Dees TT O 92.5

Brisbane v. Geelong @ Gabba +58.5 / 201.5
The risk here is that the Cats might need percentage, but my guess is that they don't with Crows' outcome. My plays here will be consistent with how these teams have played in these situations (Lions 1Q at home, Cats vs. anyone at a 6+ margin line). The now obvious risk to this is that both will go wrong, because that's just how my weekend is going (I made some HT and QT plays yesterday on these principles and lost them all, haha). Lions are 6 straight 1Q ATS covers at the Gabba, and the Cats are 0-6 on the season ATS at more than 20 margin line (they beat the Doggies by 57 as a 9.5 fave). If the Carlton game could hit 194, this game is going well past 200.
Plays: Lions 1Q +13.5 / +58.5 / Over 201.5

Essendon v. WB @ Etihad +44.5 / 165.5
Line came in by a full goal with the Stringer out. Seems like an overreaction given his lack of effort and pressure throughout games, so I see value there. How much will the Bombers' confidence be improved and will that matter against the Doggies? In hindsight, I discount heavily a win over the Suns, because they are playing more like the Lions these past three weeks (I've lost betting against them and for them, haha). I can't believe the total is this high. Playing the GC hit 166 here back in Rd 17 (much better Suns side then), and Pies and Cats hit over this. But those are the Pies and Cats. The Bombers?! The total is the safest play imho. The risk with the line play is that the Doggies don't need the percentage. At the same time, I can't see them not playing their "brand of footy" - they're just too consistent.
Plays: WB 1Q -10.5 / 1H -20.5 / -44.5 / Under 165.5

No more live plays for me, period, but may cash out to recover some if things go wrong early. Good luck - Erich

Parlaying my 3 fave plays o'day for a 7+X payout:

Dees -25.5 / Lions 1Q +13.5 / Bombers-Dogs Under 164.5

Slight line movements since earlier. Dees line in must be due to rain... Silvagni out for Blues

Cats cover with a last second goal, Dogs miss covering 1H by the hook by a last minute Danaher goal (mis-stated my Diggie 1Q and 1H lines slightly)... Just not my weekend...

BUT, slight consolation with the confidence in Swannies winning it all and me being there... :)

Good luck on the rest of the season and thank you for your contribution weekly to this forum, you have some very good insight. 

Thanks Peekay, not the best finish for me, but I've thoroughly enjoyed it... Along with yours and others' plays. Guess it will be me and "Wilson!" in here for the rest of this season, hahaha!

From Texas, but been here in Sydney past 5 years. Aussie and I are still due to meet up for a few drinks, which will happen. :) You're in Melbourne if I recall correctly?

3-21 on the round for AFL