Afl - RD 23

Forgot, yanked Hawks line

Yanked Hawks -24.5

Swannies 

Yes, they finish seventh unless Hawthorn loses to Collingwood.

However, I like the Doggies for a few reasons:

1) Look at this round.  Finals teams are roaring.  Done teams have literally given up.  Look at Melbourne and Richmond this round.  They've would've lost to a VFL side this week.  Freo is one of those team.  A done team.

2) Freo has two motivations today.  Get Pavvy his 700th and try to win his final game.  Once Pav has his 700th (hopefully early and done with), that motivating factor fades.  If the Bulldogs get on up by 20, then 25, then 35....and Freo realizes that they have no chance of sending Pav out a winner, they WILL QUIT.  Like Melbourne did at quarter time after trading blow-for-blow with Geelong early.

3) Yes, Doggies are busted up.  But that means one thing.  Some new faces and unusual faces in the mix today.  EVERY ONE OF THEM knowing that with the injury situation of the Dogs, they will have a change to play Finals footy!  That is, if they put on a Grade-A showing today.  So the dinged-up condition of the Dogs actually gives them a motivation boost because they will have inclusions in there playing with something to prove.

4) Freo is slow and plodding.  The Dogs mid are electric and their backline defence plays quick-out recycle instead of mark and search.  This is a damning combination for a Freo team unable and possible unwilling to get back to set-up their defence.  I fully expect to see some wall-to-wall goals by the Dogs in this one.

5) The venue.  Domain rewards racing teams and punishes slow, methodical teams.  Look at the result this season: 

https://www.afl.com.au/fixture?venueId=CD_V70#tvenue

Even poor Carlton, who does not have slow ball movement (ineffective, yes, but not slow) got up on Freo.

---------------------------------

So, I may be wrong on the bet in the end, but those are my five reasons and I will take that side any weekend of the year.

And as I type this, St. Kilda is brow-beating Brisbane.  Brisbane has nothing to play for while St. Kilda wants to keep a respectful 9th (tied for the 8th, but down on percentage).  This continues the trend of this week.

Live play at QT, and my live record made me cringe, but:

Hawks ML @ 1.55

Good Luck!

If the trends hold this week, Hawthorn should put away Collingwood.

Check this site out.  Love it:  https://www.liveladders.com/AFL/

Great stuff man! Hope the Doggies come through for you as expected. And my under will surely hit if they do.

This may be a Hawks home game, but there are far more Pies fans...

Well, I'm already calling it a loss.

Fremantle looks like they have three extra players on the field.

Dogs -16.5

Dogs are playing hard but Fremantle looks like they have the ball on a guided rope.

I haven't seen them this efficient in all 22 previous rounds.

They look like a Top Eight team.

Great win the the Hawks!

Swans for the Flag!

Yeah man, Swannies gonna get er done! Too deep. I don't want to play Giants twice though...

10-9 for a (just) winning final round. :)

Faves 53.4% on the season, Unders 55.6%

L Crows 1Q -5.5
L Crows -24.5
W Cats 1Q -7.5
W Cats -32.5
W Bombers +19.5
W Swans 1Q -
W Swans 1H -
L Swans/Tiges U 166.5
W Roos 1Q +2.5
L Roos 1H +6.5
L 1/2 bet Roos +12.5
W Saints 1Q -12.5
W Saints 1H -26.5
L Saints/Lions U 205.5
L Hawks 1Q -6.5
L Hawks/Pies U 178.5
L Suns +18.5
L 1/2 bet Suns ML
W Suns/Port U 187.5
W Dockers/Doggies U 158.5

Like all four favorites for the first round of Finals.

They are all heavy favorites though.  Very lopsided match-up for the Preliminaries this season.

Any upsets in the making?

Dogs will get absolutely crushed by a record score at Domain if they show up like they did against Fremantle.

Eagles -25.5 Bulldogs

Cats -7.5 Hawks

2016 Premiers -15.5 Giants

Crows -30.5 Kangaroos

Current lines as of the now.

I like all four favorites to win, but not quite sure about the lines.  I would take the Swans -15.5 if I had to pick one of them and that's not a homer pick.  I really think they are going to open up a can here.  Too early really though now that these teams get a week off.