Afl - RD 26

All:

Getting an early start on this one to see what others are thinking on the matches.

Geelong v. Sydney @ MCG -7.5 / 172.5
I thought the line would be -6.5, so this feels about right. Tin isn't showing much value in it either. A few things have me leaning towards the Cats line though. Health, rest, and payback. The continuing injuries for the Swans must be factored into the line. Mills and Rohan are big outs. We do get Tippett back, but that's a net negative. 6 days rest. Young team. Cats with a full extra week rest. Importantly (imho), they came off the in-season bye and got smacked at home by the Swans. So I think there is no chance they waste the extra week and lose any focus leading into this match (payback). Feels like a 2-3 goal Cats' win, if not more. Lean the Under on the total.

GWS v. WB @ SPO -13.5 / 167.5
I'm having trouble wrapping my head around this one. I think the only side (on full match) I'd play is Doggies, just because i believe i can trust them to bring full effort from start to finish. Regardless of talent mismatch (again, imho), I don't see the Giants being able to win by > 2 goals. I just don't think the Doggies will be give in like the Swans did. At the same time, you can't argue the talent mismatch (though the Doggies' offensive prowess is markedly better these past few rounds). I'd lean to the Over on this due to that last point on their O.

So, initial feelings are with the Cats and Dogs lines :D

Erich

First play just locked: Swans +8.5 at Sportsbet (365 has come in slightly).

Rahahaha!  Nice write-up on the Cats only to scroll down and see you take the Swans plus the points.

 

I reckon the BEST bet of the weekend is Doggies plus 15.5.  Total piss-take line.  They are still being undervalued from their last round laydown against Freo.  They have stormed back and dominated in the finals and now find themselves 15.5-point, no pun intended, dogs?

GWS has the veteran talent plus the youth to win it all this year (), but 15.5 is what you have to take, win or lose.  It's flat-out the right side in this.

From a gambler's point-of-view, I would moneyline the Swans and Dogs for a nice payout.

That being said, I picked:

the Swans to beat the Giants (Giants on the 14.5-point line, though) and the Crows to beat the Swans. 

the Eagles to beat the Dogs and the Hawks to beat the Dogs. 

I am literally 0-4 on these two teams in their last two games apiece.

So the fact that I like Cats and Giants to advance makes me all the more want to parlay Swans and Dogs for a nice payout.

Haha, thanks for those insights man. We obviously agree o. The Doggies line, and I've just locked it.

Play #2: WB +14.5

Still leaning the Under on Friday and Over on Saturday...

Will definitely play a little on Swans and Doggies ML... destiny mate!

Brilliant catch mate, wow! Wtf was I thinking??!!

Oh yeah, that's right: I was thinking one thing early in the week and then.... wait for it... I hope you're sitting because this may blow your simple mind.... I sort of thought a bit differently later in the week. After a little more, ah hem (foreign word about to drop) "thinking".... :O

According to SportsBet guy on League Teams last night, all the "Smart money / Big Bets" on Swannies. I don't know if that means anything, but when you have $ on games, it makes you feel better, haha!

Looking a bit at the totals more closely as game time approaches. From the start I liked the Under in the Swans at 172.5 and the Over 167.5 in Doggies match.

Swans total now down to 167.5, argh! I liked the Under here because I feel both teams will bring the pressure throughout, AND I think their scoring proficiencies are lower / less reliable than I do with the Giants/Doggies (also be tons of pressure in that one). Neither is a consistently high-scoring team, unless their in their comfort zone (as the Swans were last week against a 2H dejected Crows team).

Swans @ Cats this year went to 158, Under the 166.5 total. The only other time the Swans were dogs was to Hawks, that went at 124. Hit 168 at GWS (SPO), Rd 12 as slight faves; but 146 at ANZ v. Giants. Only other line under a Goal fave for Swans was v. Crows in Rd 4, and that total sailed Over.

Let's look at the Cats now. Record in 2016 as favourites by -9.5 or less:

Rd 1 Over at 202
Rd 5 Under at 166
Rd 8 Under at 170 (interestingly, at the Crows)
Rd 12 Under by the Hook at 179
Rd 13 Under at 143
Rd 18 Under at 140 (also Crows, wow, what opposite results v Crows as compared to Swannies)
Rd 24 Over at 168 v. Hawks

Cats last 4 outings at the 'G have averaged 80 points scored; excluding the Pies' 104 pts allowed in one of those 4, average points allowed 68.

I don't know, this feels like a 86-80 game Swans (to me), or vice-versa, but odds of being less are much better of the total being less than that rather than more. Loved the Under 172.5, will have to think on this one a bit more.

Hmmmm, I did just find an angle that I'm going to play, back on the line. Inclusive of Rd 18, Cats are 3-4 ATS 1H, losing outright to Hawks and Tiges. Swannies, with one extra match, are 5-3. Lost outright to GWS in Rd 24 by 2pts and, ah-hem, by 8 to Blues at SCG in Rd 18. I'll take the half goal on this one as I think Swannies win the Half outright.

Play #3: Swans 1H +3

Swannnnnnniiiiiiieeeeeessssss muthafuckaz!!!!!!!!!! :D

Plays #4: Doggies +20.5

#5: Over 167.5

Think I'm going to make one last play on today's match. The angle I've liked the most from the opening line on this match is no team can lay that many points against the Doggies at this point in the season. They fight too hard, play too physical a (to give the dead horse another kick) "brand of footy" from start to finish for any team to clear by 2+ goals with a high degree of certainty / probability.

Along those lines, and also as a bit of a hedge (which can cut the other way of course), why not take a bucket load of points early too? Given the no-bye vs. bye situation, i'd expect the Doggies to have a slight advantage early.

Looking at the figures...

Doggies have been Dawgs (American lingo) 10 times this season to date, and are an equal 5-5 1H ATS. However, they are on a 4-0 run, with the last loss coming against Swannies at SCG, in a game they went on to win.

For the Giants, just based on their history this season, the lines, etc., such a view of 1H ATS record in certain situations doesn't immediately surface. So.... let's look at Spotless for 2016. 8 games there this season, also with an equal 4-4 1H ATS. However... on an 0-4 run. Important note: the lowest MATCH line on those 4 ATS losses was -27.5 v. WCE. They loss that SU, and also the previous v. Pies.

I think the Giants have a better chance of clearing the match line than they do of clearing both, so I'll add the 1H in light of the above and other previously-mentioned factors that led me to play the match line.

Play #6: Doggies 1H +9.5

PS: one final "factoid" that I'm a little bit embarrassed to have but happy to share: the AFL.com.au reporter Adam Curley is 17-8 ATS* on his season's calls (the large majority of which are on the Swannies and Giants). His call for today's match: Doggies by 10.

Go Doggies!!! :D

Erich

*Each reporter calls the match winner and margin. I calculate a corresponding record based on line at time of call and match results. I promise, sincerely, I do have other fun outside of sports and AFL. haha!

TOTALLY DESTROYED IT THIS WEEKEND!!!