AFL - RD 4

Last week: 2-3
YTD: 9-6

Grabbing this one early:
Adelaide +2.5 v. Sydney

Yikes!! Best one you could find?

Sydney have all the tools to beat anyone anywhere.

Granted Adelaide are playing great and at home but Sydney's midfield dominates Adelaide's in every spot and if they're winning that much of the ball and pumping it down to Franklin and Tippett.

What do you like about it?

Hey Peekay,

I don't see a ton of value here, I'm just concerned the line moves against me later in the week (as has happened each week with some games). If it moves significantly for me, I'll cash this out (costs 5%) and re-up at the better line.

I think Adelaide is playing better offensively and the Swans will struggle to contain them as well as match scoring. I think the Crows by 5-11 points).

It's funny, just had a look back at Rd 4 last year and each lost and didn't cover. I think the Crows get up for this more.

Gentlemen,

Round 4 is upon us, and I've got a few plays that I've made.

Adelaide v. Sydney
Adelaide +2.5 taken earlier in the week. A bit nervous about this one now, to be honest. There isn't a ton of value here, and I do think Sydney is the better team. This is more a play at home for an energized and focused Crows team. Basically, I think they'll want it more.
Plays: Crows +2.5 and Crows 1H +1.5

Essendon v. Geelong
This is a pure value play. Geelong shouldn't be laying 61 points against an Essendon side that has some fight, especially at the G, where Essendon beat Melbourne two weeks ago. Having said that, Bombers have lost 2 games by 61 points. But both Away.
Play: Bombers +61.5

Hawthorn v. STK
Let down game for the Saints, and Hodgey back for the Hawks.
Play: Hawks -49.5

Brisbane v. GC
Anyone know why the line has come down so much, to 15.5?
No Play

Carlton v. WB
The Doggies were rolling, and are smarting from a tough loss and without their skipper. I think that focuses them enough to get things done here with a comfortable margin (though the obvious risk is that they're flat without him). Secondly, it's their 4th in a row at Ethihad.
The total is 181.5, which is low for Ethihad. But they've hit 3 straight Unders, with last week hitting just at 183 (I had locked at 183.5, some others had a lower total). My call on the Over was sound last week, but this week I'm going the other way. Doggies have hit 103, 93, and 90. Blues have hit 83, 71 (at Ethihad v. Sydney) and 41. I see this as a 110-60 type game.
Plays: WB -45.5, Under 181.5

Was tempted to pull the trigger on Richmond tonight, but just can't. I think they likely cover. Hopefully it's a good game.

Cheers - Erich

best of luck this weekend Erich

Thanks mate, you playing anything else?

Keeping Hawks play, and adding:

Hawks -41.5

Gold Coast -15.5 at Brisbane.

Dees +18.5
Giants -1.5

Good Sunday to you all,

Couldn't do a write up for my plays yesterday, but the play on Giants was talent, and especially effort and physicality. Back to last week's comment on the Power and poor (IMO) culture. But this first half is a circus. Excellent live play opportunity on Power either now or in the 3rd. 4th Q differential with these teams is stark.

Speaking of culture, the Pies. Eddie McGuire is the CEO AND a commentator on Fox Sports?! Wow?! Embarrassed to admit I just made the connection (I am American, but have really gotten into AFL past few years). As someone who has followed US sports forever, that is shocking. On so many levels. At first blush anyway, so am curious to hear what the general fan/media view of that is. I'm a nobody, but if it were my club, I'd want my CEO 100% focused on winning titles. And Bucks spending time on TV each week?! Anyway, late to the knowledge in that one.

As for an additional play on that game, I'm looking at the Over. Pies hit 87 and 90 in the past two games at the G. Though Dees have only hit 78 and 80, I think they build on their just-losing effort v Roos last week (if they had won, I'd fade them and go the Under). I think they find a way to get 85+, with Pies scoring close to 100.

Good luck today - Erich

I've poured over the late game, and was looking for any angle to take Freo and the points (30.5). With Sandilands out, not so easy. Roos barely covered a similar line against Lions. However, they will be focused too having almost lost last week. I think the Sandilands out factor will affect the D for Freo, and North gets 110-130. Freo has seesawed on scoring, so I see them getting aggressive on O with Sandilands out and getting 70+.

Play: Over 180.5

Eddie was in the media before he was Collingwood president. He was the first host of the footy show. He is also the president of the Melbourne Stars cricket team. Host of who wants to be a millionaire. On top of all that he spent some time as CEO of channel 9. Collingwood have been in at least 4 or 5 Grand finals while he's been president, won 1. I'd say he's been a success for Collingwood.

I don't see your big deal about it. All presidents of football clubs have busy careers outside of football.

Results to date on Rd 4...

W Crows +2.5
W Crows +1.5 1H
W Bombers +61.5
L. Hawks -49.5
L. Hawks -41.5
L. WB -45.5
W WB/Carl Under 181.5
L GC -15.5 (freakin tail, no more of that)
W. GWS -1.5

5-4

Pending:
Over 180.5 Pies/Dees
Dees +18.5
Over 180.5 Dockers/Roos

Thanks mate, heard a similar view from a Pies supporter. I'm not saying it's wrong, or bad, etc... It's just that in NFL and NBA and most major American sports, running the org is more than a full time job. The flip side of that is could the Pies have done even better? But look, maybe he's more like a chairman or something with someone else running things...

L Over Pies/Dees
W Dees +18.5
W Freo Over 189.5 (179 start of 4th, haha)

7-5 on the round

I wouldn't be playing down Eddies involvement and commitment, he's been in his position at Collingwood since 1998 for a reason. The difference is, in comparison the NFL and NBA are much bigger organizations catering to a much bigger number of people.

Anyway, was a pretty difficult round. Freo 0-4 is unbelievable.

Not a bad round at all Erich, nice work! 

Thanks buddy, appreciate it. :)

Nicely done mate