AFL -Hawthorn v Melbourne

Sunday evening at the MCG

HAWTHORN
B: Brendan Whitecross, Thomas Murphy, Brent Guerra
HB: Beau Dowler, Campbell Brown, Grant Birchall
C: Jordan Lewis, Sam Mitchell, Beau Muston
HF: Mark Williams, Lance Franklin, Michael Osborne
F: Cyril Rioli, Jarryd Roughead, Garry Moss
Foll: Simon Taylor, Brad Sewell, Chance Bateman
Int: Robert Campbell, Ben McGlynn, Jarryd Morton, Cameron Stokes
Emg: Stuart Dew, Brent Renouf, Travis Tuck

In: Muston, Stokes
Out: Dew, Tuck

New: Beau Muston (Murray under-18)


MELBOURNE
B: Matthew Whelan, Matthew Warnock, Jared Rivers
HB: James Frawley, Stefan Martin, Aaron Davey
C: Jack Grimes, Colin Sylvia, Brock McLean
HF: Cale Morton, Brad Miller, Russell Robertson
F: Brad Green, Matthew Bate, Cameron Bruce
Foll: Paul Johnson, Brent Moloney, James McDonald
Int: Ricky Petterd, Addam Maric, Nathan Jones, Jamie Bennell
Emg: Clint Bartram, Mark Jamar, Kyle Cheney

In: Rivers, Frawley, Green, Bennell
Out: Dunn, Valenti, Bartram, Cheney

Line has dropped from 33 to 31 with the public falling in love with the perception that the young Demons are turning the corner somewhat. For mine that might well be the case yet it certainly won't be this evening. The Hawks are coming off a strong away win @ Fremantle last Friday, given their coach Clarkson's reputation as a strategist you'd like to think he'll have the Demons measure on the round's final clash.

You've got to ask can the Melbourne defence keep the Hawks quiet, the midfield will hold the key to the game. If the Dees can't contain the Hawks midfielders then this one has blow-out city written all over it.

2 UNITS - Hawthorn -31

Bad luck man - good teams are taking their foot off the pedal a lot this year. There were three big lines this week and not one of them covered:

Geelong was about 35
Saints 34, and
Hawks 32 (at my book)

The problem with AFL betting is next week they will probably all cover huge lines.

Good luck.

yeah that was a tough beat, the Hawks didn't even care in the final quarter...

cheers anyway