AFL Rd 18

Question

Hey Fellas,Week gets started with the match of the round in Hawks v. Tigers.  Can&#x27;t wait.Still plenty of time, but here is my rhinking today...Definite plays:WCE -41.5  No Ablett.  WCE 4Q-L -10.5  Suns will peter out, as they have been whilst Eagles continue to dominate.Hawthorn -34.5.  They are not simply covering, they are crushing.  Last year from early July or so they covered all but 2 through grand final.  Determined, focused and best team.  Tigers have the talent to cover here, but contine to show mental weakness (Saints 4Q and Freo).Under Dees/Pies - Dees can&#x27;t score and Pies hindered forward line.Medium leans:  Blues &#x2B;33.5.  Will try to atone for embarrassment whilst Roos have shown they lack consistency (never had consecutive ATS wins this season).Crows &#x2B;18.5.  Crows will fight to the end.  Can&#x27;t trust Swans, and Buddy is uncertain.Look forward to your thoughts and angles.

Erich777 · Answer

Hey Fellas,Week gets started with the match of the round in Hawks v. Tigers.  Can&#x27;t wait.Still plenty of time, but here is my rhinking today...Definite plays:WCE -41.5  No Ablett.  WCE 4Q-L -10.5  Suns will peter out, as they have been whilst Eagles continue to dominate.Hawthorn -34.5.  They are not simply covering, they are crushing.  Last year from early July or so they covered all but 2 through grand final.  Determined, focused and best team.  Tigers have the talent to cover here, but contine to show mental weakness (Saints 4Q and Freo).Under Dees/Pies - Dees can&#x27;t score and Pies hindered forward line.Medium leans:  Blues &#x2B;33.5.  Will try to atone for embarrassment whilst Roos have shown they lack consistency (never had consecutive ATS wins this season).Crows &#x2B;18.5.  Crows will fight to the end.  Can&#x27;t trust Swans, and Buddy is uncertain.Look forward to your thoughts and angles.

peekay89 · Answer

Hi EricLove the eagles and hawks plays. Both are steamrolling opponents and I have noticed enjoy doing it which is very important. Particularly Hawthorn, they don&#x27;t take their foot off the gas, and until they show me otherwise, I see no reason not to take them at the line after the pounding they have been given all other teams, including good ones like Freo and Syd.Eagles play I like. Not sure on total for dees/piesHave to disagree with Blues play. Kangaroos are a decent team who have reason to play hard for finals. They got most of their team in and they LOVE etihad stadium. Blues are a basketcase.I think I&#x27;ll be all over Ross unless something changesI also think swans cover easily.:)

peekay89 · Answer

and in saying all that i may have missed the best play on board.Port Adelaide Power at the line

Erich777 · Answer

Hey mate,Good stuff, and can see the Swans covering easily.  I&#x27;ll be at the game, and there is too much uncertainty (on both sides of this match) to make me want to put $$ down on the line.  If anything, I&#x27;d go Swans 1Q or 1H line; if the motivated Crows show up, and get a little luck, they can make a match of this with at least a low margin of victory.Get your point on Blues / Roos.  There really isn&#x27;t much value in the line; but if there is, last week dictates it&#x27;s on the Blues (Blues got smashed and Roos smashed).  The rounds before that, both were pretty close to lines as a result.  And Roos haven&#x27;t covered twice in a row this entire season.  So I can&#x27;t put $ on them up front in this situation... live may be different, on either side.  "Show me the money, Jerry!!" ;-)Surprising call on Port, as I don&#x27;t see any value with them laying almost 4 goals against a team who has proven it doesn&#x27;t give up.  Sure Port is 4&#x2B; goals better than Saints, but Port has done nothing but disappoint the market.  Since Rd 11, 1 win against the line, as an underdog to the underwhelming Swans.  biggest margin of victory in the time frame?  On two wins: 13 points (the other was 3 against Pies).  Again, not saying they can&#x27;t or won&#x27;t win by that much, but I wouldn&#x27;t put a decent bet on it.  I&#x27;ve made good money on them getting behind and getting a lower line as faves.  :-)Similarly on Swans: 5 straight losses ATS beginning after the bye Rd 13.  Yawn... that&#x27;s not me yawning, it&#x27;s them,as their performance shows.  But again, something could snap them out of it at any moment, so anything can happen.  Not comfortable betting them against the Crows at &gt; 3 goals.

peekay89 · Answer

You make all valid points. I seem to live in the past, Port are capable of absolutely exploding, especially at home. Just like when they destroyed hawks by about 10 goals in the first quarter at the start of the season. Whilst they are a shadow of that team, i feel as if they are slowly hitting their straps. And there are particular teams that just cant play good away from home. Saints, Dogs and GWS really spring to mind

brandonbix · Answer

never check the "other" section of this forum.glad i did, so stoked someone is weighing in on the AFL.great plays!

Erich777 · Answer

Okay, first plays of the round:Hawks -7.5 1Q lineHawks -9.5 3Q Only lineHawks -34.5 (TAB is offeri g -33.5)

peekay89 · Answer

Like it, I have one crazy parlay locked in already and will play single games closer to gametime.

Parlay:
Hawks -34.5
Sydney -18.5
West Coast -41.5
North Melbourne -33.5
Port -11.5 (bought pts but shouldnt have)
Fremantle -32.5

100 to win 4000

I don't recommend tailing, just for fun :)

Erich777 · Answer

Haha, like playing Lotto mate... :-D

peekay89 · Answer

People win lotto sometimes :)

Erich777 · Answer

Port -28.5 looking much better now with Riewoldt out (and 2 others)...

peekay89 · Answer

Ughh they were like -19.5 opening

Erich777 · Answer

It was 22.5 yesterday... Nick is worth more than a goal...

Target2million · Answer

Oh my god just saw this post.  Thx  for peekay and erich777.  I will   Keep on eye some of picks.   Let me know whats your thoughts about rugby shield games too.

Erich777 · Answer

Hey Target, i don&#x27;t follow Rugby mate...

Erich777 · Answer

Some lines moving, so locked these two plays:Eagles -49.5Eagles 4Q -13.5More people are clued in to the 4Q play on Eagles now: it pays only 1.7 this week, lol.BOL fellas

peekay89 · Answer

Playing favourites this week and buying points because I'm a scaredy cat.

Hawks -20.5 @ $1.41

Pies -11.5 @ 1.51

Sydney -5.5 @ 1.52 (Biggest Play)

Eagles -35.5 @ 1.44

Dockers -15.5 @ 1.51 (Bigger Play)

GL to all!

Target2million · Answer

I like this parlay mate... I will add few more nrl games with this parlay.Hi peekay one punter put &#xA3;20,000 leeds to win.   Keep on eye.

peekay89 · Answer

Hi T2 - I also parlay them all but it&#x27;s a real longshot. I wouldn&#x27;t recommend it but if you want to for fun then go for it. Your money, you decide :)I keep a close eye on Leeds game

spicycurry30 · Answer

richmond &#x2B;34.5. suicide play

Erich777 · Answer

Not a suicide play at all mate, line was about right.  Live bet Hawks -11.5... hoping Richmond continues in 2Q so i can get Hawks H2H at 2&#x2B; :-)

Erich777 · Answer

Start of 2Q also grabbed:Hawks -9.5 1.9Hawks 39&#x2B; 6.0...

Erich777 · Answer

Hey Peekay, LOVE all your "conservative" plays... a hundy on that parlay would be good too ;-)  BOL buddy

peekay89 · Answer

Not good anymore, hawks were trash haha! Plenty of other games left!

peekay89 · Answer

Congrats to Richmond backers, they implemented a very good game plan!

AFL Rd 18

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