AFL RD 22

Test

Round 22 Fellas, coming down to the finals. I didn’t have a feel early in the week as I have recently; a lot of that is due to it being the last few games of the season. For me, it’s an extra layer of unknown (what is the mindset of the team when they have something to play for; when they don’t, who will they play and who will they rest, etc.) and therefore complexity. Note that I’ll give a higher weighting to “mind-set” than performance data as a result.

But I have been reading, thinking, and formulating, and have landed on my plays for the weekend today. Earlier than usual, and subject to change on the day (but highly unlikely).

Since my feeling is different this week (across the weekend), will cover the weekend here in this post, and update where I have a change of play on the day.

Geelong v. Collingwood
Geelong has been the side to back in this from the start, but a line approaching 3 goals was too much early in the week. The “obvious” view on them winning by a lot is because they “have to”, because finals are on the line. But, that applied last weekend, and they couldn’t manage more than a push. Just because a team has to, should, etc., doesn’t mean they will. I also believe Pies will do much better than last week, and make a go of this. In the end, I like the closer line and think the Cats clear it at 2 goals 2 behinds.
Play (locked): Cats -13.5
Live angle: Cats ML or +points at any stage

Post-Match: you can’t sink much lower than losing embarrassingly to a team that was obliterated the week before. One thing I didn’t know was that Scott had already told players that they wouldn’t be staying on. While that may seem “honourable”, it’s idiotic when that can impact work-rate and effort.

GWS v. Carlton
Giants were demolished by a Buddy-less Swans team, which is an ominous sign for such a young and talented team. So, the market says they should respond big time, at home, vs. the hapless Blues. Well, “not-so-fast” in my view. I can’t back the Giants laying this many points against anyone. They have an awful offense, to start with. Yes, they beat a depleted Saints. And they may very well win this by 6+ goals. But I’m willing to put money on them winning by 3-4 goals. Giants are “sore” and “tired”, according to AFL Exchange. That is telling. Yes, they will respond. But dominating this game from Q1 to Q4 to clear by more than 5 goals? No. Blues haven’t won a game in ages, but they keep fighting. Newly energized by having a coach decided? I think so.
Play: Blues +31.5
Stats: Blues got blasted rounds 17/18 by Roos/Hawks, otherwise, they’ve either covered easily or come close.

Hawthorn v. Brisbane (in Tasmania)

Hawks have been the primary source, by far, of my losses this year. Disappointing to a degree in games which remains… not inexplicable, but inexcusable. But this is one of those opportunities where they are coming off an embarrassing loss, and Lions are an emotional dumpster-fire. Hawks win by close to 100 points, if not more.
Plays (locked): Hawks -64.5 and -82.5 @ 3x

NM v. WB

Game of the weekend boys. Can’t wait!! Some important personnel changes for the Doggies here, and a self-belief perhaps unmatched in the league. At the same time, Roos showed me exactly what I wanted to see last weekend against Dockers. They didn’t fade away or give up… they gritted it out. And won. Convincingly. Where they’ve been inconsistent in the past, forever it seems, that was a pivotal game imo (and many others). They are the right side imo, but I feel there is a lot more value in the points. This is going to go 210+ at Ethihad, so I’m going big.
Plays (locked): Over 191.5 (up to 195.5)
Live Angle: Roos + 5.5 or greater… WB +18.5 or greater

Essendon v. Richmond
Bombers coming off an almost-win, but with emotional momentum now freed from the distraction of will Hirdy be around or not. And players playing for individual futures as well. As mentioned last weekend. Tigers coming off a beat-down of the Pies in a bizarre game. No one doubts the Tigers talent, ability, and prowess. It’s the mental/emotional fortitude that seems to appear only occasionally. If the Pies could have kicked like the Dees in the 1H that game, it might have been tied (exaggeration to make a point). Tigers shouldn’t be laying this many points against most any team, but especially one who feels refreshed and got a little confidence booster last week. The numbers and model don’t back me up here at all, but instead of not playing, I’m playing my hunch (backed by anecdotal history of teams in the Bombers’ situation).
Play: Bombers +40.5
Live Angle: Bombers +65.5 or more

GC v. Port
An injury-depleted Suns coming off a narrow victory against a newly vigorous Dons facing a surprisingly feisty Power team coming off a marquee win against the Hawks (whom they’ve played very well in the recent past). In Brisbane. I don’t see any value on this match (model has some on Port as this line, which I agree with). This is purely a “psycho” (logical) play. Power come down enough off their big win in a humid and squishy away game, and don’t clear the line.
Plays (locked): Suns +19.5
Stats: Port has covered 2 in a row since Rds 9/10. They did cover v. Crows following early season win over Hawks, and their footy has been trending well in recent weeks. This can go either way, but Port should cover.

Adelaide v. WCE
Okay, this might be THE match of the weekend. Fortunately for us, the two matches are on separate days. No play for me on this, just going to watch and revel. Well done to those of you who locked the Crows early at ~+10.

STK v. Sydney
I LOVE this game personally. For me, this is my “new” team vs. my discarded one. I love everything about the Saints, and so little about the Swannies. Saints play their hearts out, led by a fully committed captain. They were robbed of a win over Cats, and will be hungry to upset Swans. They keep it within 3-4 goals. Swannies do get Buddy back (not necessarily a great leader, but a remarkably dedicated one). Too many points for the Swans to be laying against this team on the road. Don’t be fooled by a one-off performance by the Swans. Trust what they’ve been “telling us” all season: they should rarely be counted on, and never when laying tons of points. Not sure why the bookies have this line so low at Ethihad, with these two teams. Really?
Plays (locked): Saints +29.5, Over 182.5
Stats: discounting last week, Swans beat Crows by 52 after being embarrassed the week before. Otherwise, have not covered since the bye.

Freo v. Melbourne
The Dees have really disappointed these past few weeks. Almost inexplicably they seem to have lost all sense of self. They should have rebounded in the past few weeks but haven’t. They might play better this week, but even against a Fyfe-less Dockers, ain’t gonna happen.
Play: Freo -42.5

About time

I'm cursed if i start threads, so never again. I'm just raiding yours or peekays from now on.

GL

Cats at just over 2 goals was a good play... they are proof that the mindset/emotional frame of mind is part of the tipping evaluation. Pies shocked us last week. I knew they'd bounce back. I thought Cats would expect it tho. Argh.

Live bet Blues +63.5

Mmkay... Giants -63.5

Live bet Over 163.5 Roos Dogs

Live Roos/Dogs Over 147.5 at HT

Over 139.5 Roos 3QT

Adding GC U 147.5

Bad weather has come in. Not much value here as missed the drop to 154.5. Just a hunch.

Tiges -18.5 live bet

Under 122.5 Tiges/Dons

Rain stopped, so Over 130.5 Tiges Dons

Over 137.5 Tiges Dons

WCE 1Q Over 22.5...

Only time since Rd 14 they hit less than 23 was 18 in Rd 16 away at Pies.
Crows, on the other hand, have allowed only 3 opponents less in the same time frame:
Rd 16 Power 22 pts
Rd 19 Tigers 19 pts
Rd 21 Lions 22 pts

I like the WCE 1Q bet and your writeup on Freo Melbourne

Still deciding plays

Also, will be looking for Crows + 15 or more if Crows get off to usual slow start

The total for crows eagles is 195.5...

That is high for any game at any stadium

Wow!! Live bet 1Q Eagles Over 12.5

Please let me wake up soon!!

Eagles 2Q Over 23.5
Eagles 2Q Over 3.5 goals

Eagles +41.5

Eagles 2Q -19.5