AFL Rd 24

Happy Hump Day Gents,

Some very good match-ups this weekend, can't wait. Except for Swans/Dockers of course, haha.

Putting down some general thoughts for the moment, and not sure whether I'll incorporate any data history since it's Finals.

Glenn: let me know your thoughts on whether Tiges +20 margin in Tin qualifies for the 2+ goal margin category discussed previously.

WCE v. Haw -4.5
Home Dog in Finals is always tempting. Hawks will be ready to play, and can play with the best of them, this season.
What I like about the Eagles: home dog, rematch against a team in same stadium where they lost by 14 pts, had their bitch-slap loss to Crows only 2 weeks ago (thus reinvigorated), Tin likes them.
What I like about the Hawks: historic ability to focus start/finish in matches that matter, physical style of play.
What I don't like about Eagles: Is the talent-level diminished so much via injuries that it's impossible to win this?
What I don't like about Hawks: teams that want it more than them can beat them, the method is clear now.
Strong Lean: Eagles +4.5

Freo v. Syd +19.5
Injury-riddled Swans against the ugliest top-side offence EVER :) Didn't like this game at 12.5, don't like it at 19.5. Dockers will obviously (to me) win, the question is by how much. Buddy isn't critical to Swans' scoring ability, at the end of the day. In fact they might even be more effective in the short-term but balancing the attack more. Since round 13, these are the teams Freo beat by 19 or more: Lions, Blues, Giants, Saints, Dees. I think Swans put up a fight, the game is very physical, and Dockers win by 10-16 points, but closer to 12. I do wonder whether Fyfe will want to run up some scores with Hannebury getting coaches award...
Lean: Swans +19.5

WB v. Adel +1.5
I can't wait for this game. Love both teams, especially the Doggies, and am hoping for a free-flowing high-scoring affair. Don't have a strong feel for this, but will likely play a little fun money. I love the chemistry of each side and the confidence. In the end, I give a decent edge to the Crows based on the superior list talent, momentum, and quality of wins. Doggies were beat by Eagles Rd 21 by 77 pts, then Crows smashed the Eagles the very next week. Back to Rd 13, the only top 8 scalp Doggies have is Roos, Rd 22. In addition to Eagles', Crows have Tiges' by 6 goals. As I write this now, I've just made this a solid lean.
Lean: Crows +1.5
Slight Lean: Over 182.5 at the G

Rich v. NM +9.5
Tiges have the talent, ability and recently-found maturity to win this handily, I don't think anyone doubts that. The question, as always, with this team is: which version shows up game-day? I do believe they play down/up to competition, and will be focused for this one, as they were vs. Swans, Dockers, Hawks and Crows. Note, in each of those games save the Swans, they got off to a fast start (margin-wise), and the others half-assed it 1H generally. The Roos did look impressive pulling out the win vs. the Dockers, but lost all of that mental hardness the next week in a loss to Doggies. I think the resting players is a net disadvantage for the Roos, for exactly that reason (win vs. Dockers, lose vs. Doggies): they aren't a consistent team, and getting out of rhythm will be detrimental. Also, Tin likes the Tiges by 20.
Strong Lean: Tiges - 9.5


Will appreciate any thoughts/views, even if not making plays.

Erich

Rd 24?

Come on Erich!

Against you on all of them 

Forgot to say

Will keep on eye for my parlays

I know Peekay, will likely temper a few of them because of that. But funny how it's for all 4 of them...

182.5 at the MCG in a final. You have balls my friend, I like it! Im not playing totals, Im just saying that if I were I would go the Under. But im no fortune teller (I wish I was)

I like the Swans play. Freo might be top of the table but they have lost a lot of games lately and to poor teams. I know they play DS well and I know Sydney is arguably depleted but their ins aren't half bad either Nick Smith and Craig Bird. The problem with Ross Lyons teams is they just don't score and John Longmire knows the strategy and tricks. Anyway things to think about.

Like the Weagles pick, like Adelaide.

Concerned about the Tigers. For 3 quarters the Roos seconds team embarassed the Tigers full team.

I just took Eagles +2.5 (line has come in). Will likely play 1H line too, as a hedge if nothing else.

Rain probably favors Hawks, but I think Eagles will want this more, and be at home, and have Nic Nat back. No Smith (for Hawks) in my opinion. Too risky. Clarko knows his side can go back to Perth and win.

Hope we get lucky with the weather, would hate to see a slide fest.

BOL!

I see why line moved out to 9.5 for Hawks: Priddos out, Smith in for Eagles. Yanked my 2.5 with a decent haircut.

Instead, am taking 1H line: Eagles +4.5.

BOL

See weather not hitting until around HT, so two more:
1Q Over 40.5
1H Over 82.5
Both paying only 1.68.

Plays for today's matches...

Freo v. Sydney +16.5
I've been on Sydney +19.5 since beginning of week, influenced by Freo's poor offense (which I highlighted with some #s) and Sydney's overall balance and strong defensive ability. With both teams' defenses, this should be a low scoring, lower margin game. All of that, coupled with rain, seems to be overwhelping support for the dog here. But I'm going the other way, partly because of the injuries, but mostly because I think it's a foregone conclusion in the Swannies' heads at this stage, and that will ultimately affect their play. They're an emotional, momentum, up-and-down bunch, who can play with the best of them when everything is aligned (motivation, belief, health, etc.). But they can lay down faster than a dog in a thunderstorm when punched in the face by a superior team. And that is exactly what the Dockers are, not to mention at home, rested and healthy. I also found a few #s to support this play too. Since Rd 13, they have only covered one line of -12.5 or less: against Giants. Crushed as dogs by Hawks, Eagles, and by Cats as -0.5 faves. The win over Crows at home is the only signature win.

Plays: Dockers -16.5 hard, Dockers -4.5 1Q-L medium and Dockers -30.5 light

WB v. Adelaide
Not a lot to add to my points made a few days ago. Crows have better talent, more experience, and more motivation (very slight here). Since they played last week like the Swans will today, they will be extra focused. In finals-footy, those are the elements equal a win. And because this is finals footy, the total looks pretty rich. This will be a very physical game from start to finish. Look for Crows to get the advantage in first quarter (unusually, but as they did against Dockers), and then the back and forth to go until sometime in the 4th.

Plays: Crows -1.5 hard, Crows 1Q-L -0.5 light and U186.5 medium

Good luck today with your plays!

Glad to see you on Freo.

S. Forgot stats for my 1Q play on Freo.
Swans were smacked by Hawks and Eagles in 1Q by 6 and 4 goals respectively. On a run recently, but against lame teams with an almost full staff of players. Freo has won past 3 1Q convincingly, despite losing two of the matches against Roos and Power. While they were also smashed by Eagles in 1Q, it is their best quarter by far since the break.

I'm relieved too buddy that we're on same side, whew! :) Let's get this!

Huge play on ML 1.36 to cover all other plays.

Live bet Freo -7.5 2Q line

Freo 3Q -4.5

Swans have outplayed Dockers 3 qyarters... swans pitiful q1 accuracy only reason dockers in front.

Freo 4Q line -7.5

ML play saved me, as netted a loss on my Qtr plays. Swannies showed up for effort, which they can do when they want. Freo, on the other hand have been consistent once again. My play on Freo line was about Swans, not Freo. No way they win the flag.

That wind was doing crazy things, made viewing and skill levels a bit boring.

Well done with your Swans pick mate 

Crows +22.5 4Q total

what a nail biter

Fellas, we were treated to 2 fantastic games yesterday, and man oh man was the night game a beauty. I was literally on the edge of my seat.

I don't know what's up with Covers on my mobile... refreshes after hours so can't really chat.

Anyway, looking back at my initial post here, I'm 100% on how i was seeing these games, so i'm keeping it simple and taking Tiges -9.5.

BOL today if you play. Let's hope for another exciting match.