Essendon look desperate for the wooden spoon, quickly overtaking the Dees.
Ok this round...
The hawks should get a couple of players back and I'll probably put some on the line around -20.
I don't see why the lions are that far in front of the kangas. I watched both games (kangas and lions last round). The kangas won against impressive opposition, the lions won against a saints team not capitilizing on easy shots and too many turnovers (from lions pressure for the most part though). I may not bet against the lions, as they are my team but I think, it'll be a close game and -24 is too much.
Cats, if the line is below 6 goals I'll be putting a bit on the cats. The blues have the youngest team in the AFL and against the bigger, stronger bodies of the premiers coming off a loss.
Sydney have hardly done anything wrong all season and while -27 is a bit, I think I still like it.
Saints hmmm, they beat the lions in clearances in the first half, Lenny Hayes was great and if Kozzy and Reiwolt kicked straight (they still would have lost) but there were some positives. If its around -20 I'm on the saints.
Port are a very good side. A pick em against the fucking dockers, I'm all over Port, even away from home.
Thank god its a new round, this week, on first impressions looks a lot better for making money than last week.
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Essendon look desperate for the wooden spoon, quickly overtaking the Dees.
Ok this round...
The hawks should get a couple of players back and I'll probably put some on the line around -20.
I don't see why the lions are that far in front of the kangas. I watched both games (kangas and lions last round). The kangas won against impressive opposition, the lions won against a saints team not capitilizing on easy shots and too many turnovers (from lions pressure for the most part though). I may not bet against the lions, as they are my team but I think, it'll be a close game and -24 is too much.
Cats, if the line is below 6 goals I'll be putting a bit on the cats. The blues have the youngest team in the AFL and against the bigger, stronger bodies of the premiers coming off a loss.
Sydney have hardly done anything wrong all season and while -27 is a bit, I think I still like it.
Saints hmmm, they beat the lions in clearances in the first half, Lenny Hayes was great and if Kozzy and Reiwolt kicked straight (they still would have lost) but there were some positives. If its around -20 I'm on the saints.
Port are a very good side. A pick em against the fucking dockers, I'm all over Port, even away from home.
Thank god its a new round, this week, on first impressions looks a lot better for making money than last week.
Really like Coll & Bris, but I have to admit that this week looks very hard, except I think Bris are in a good spot here, plus the added fact that the Kangaroo's have been out of games alot in the first half over the past couple and have been able to come back in the 2nd half and just get over the line...could they do it again against quality opposition that are looking well placed at home after 2 good wins although not against much opposition in Carl & Saints...but then again Nth are over rated IMO. Maybe the weather factor could also help me make a decision here in this game for me...the warmer the better the chances of Bris.
Also like the look of Collingwood, they won't take the Eagles lightly after their good win against Adel, but again Coll having that 'little' extra rest after having played a Fri night (approx 7 1/2 days)game the previous round, plus the Eagles having about 6 1/2 days rest, add the fact they also recently travelled to the Gold Coast the week before, playing interstate in Melb where they have had trouble over the years, even with the best midfield in the land during their premiership years. They will have trouble with Collingwoods small forwards, plus the fact the momentum after a rocket from Malthouse was evident last week, Eagles are still only 2-7, and lack significant experience especially on the Road. plus a possible let down after a milestone win for one of their favourite sons in Wirra.
Might only be one play for me this round as my 'gut' feel is always my best source of capping games! And there isn't many games that really jump out at me
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Really like Coll & Bris, but I have to admit that this week looks very hard, except I think Bris are in a good spot here, plus the added fact that the Kangaroo's have been out of games alot in the first half over the past couple and have been able to come back in the 2nd half and just get over the line...could they do it again against quality opposition that are looking well placed at home after 2 good wins although not against much opposition in Carl & Saints...but then again Nth are over rated IMO. Maybe the weather factor could also help me make a decision here in this game for me...the warmer the better the chances of Bris.
Also like the look of Collingwood, they won't take the Eagles lightly after their good win against Adel, but again Coll having that 'little' extra rest after having played a Fri night (approx 7 1/2 days)game the previous round, plus the Eagles having about 6 1/2 days rest, add the fact they also recently travelled to the Gold Coast the week before, playing interstate in Melb where they have had trouble over the years, even with the best midfield in the land during their premiership years. They will have trouble with Collingwoods small forwards, plus the fact the momentum after a rocket from Malthouse was evident last week, Eagles are still only 2-7, and lack significant experience especially on the Road. plus a possible let down after a milestone win for one of their favourite sons in Wirra.
Might only be one play for me this round as my 'gut' feel is always my best source of capping games! And there isn't many games that really jump out at me
Really like Coll & Bris, but I have to admit that this week looks very hard, except I think Bris are in a good spot here, plus the added fact that the Kangaroo's have been out of games alot in the first half over the past couple and have been able to come back in the 2nd half and just get over the line...could they do it again against quality opposition that are looking well placed at home after 2 good wins although not against much opposition in Carl & Saints...but then again Nth are over rated IMO. Maybe the weather factor could also help me make a decision here in this game for me...the warmer the better the chances of Bris.
Also like the look of Collingwood, they won't take the Eagles lightly after their good win against Adel, but again Coll having that 'little' extra rest after having played a Fri night (approx 7 1/2 days)game the previous round, plus the Eagles having about 6 1/2 days rest, add the fact they also recently travelled to the Gold Coast the week before, playing interstate in Melb where they have had trouble over the years, even with the best midfield in the land during their premiership years. They will have trouble with Collingwoods small forwards, plus the fact the momentum after a rocket from Malthouse was evident last week, Eagles are still only 2-7, and lack significant experience especially on the Road. plus a possible let down after a milestone win for one of their favourite sons in Wirra.
Might only be one play for me this round as my 'gut' feel is always my best source of capping games! And there isn't many games that really jump out at me
Good point, it was 26 in Brissy against the saints, a lot of the saints looked spent in the third quarter.
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Quote Originally Posted by Miracle1976:
Really like Coll & Bris, but I have to admit that this week looks very hard, except I think Bris are in a good spot here, plus the added fact that the Kangaroo's have been out of games alot in the first half over the past couple and have been able to come back in the 2nd half and just get over the line...could they do it again against quality opposition that are looking well placed at home after 2 good wins although not against much opposition in Carl & Saints...but then again Nth are over rated IMO. Maybe the weather factor could also help me make a decision here in this game for me...the warmer the better the chances of Bris.
Also like the look of Collingwood, they won't take the Eagles lightly after their good win against Adel, but again Coll having that 'little' extra rest after having played a Fri night (approx 7 1/2 days)game the previous round, plus the Eagles having about 6 1/2 days rest, add the fact they also recently travelled to the Gold Coast the week before, playing interstate in Melb where they have had trouble over the years, even with the best midfield in the land during their premiership years. They will have trouble with Collingwoods small forwards, plus the fact the momentum after a rocket from Malthouse was evident last week, Eagles are still only 2-7, and lack significant experience especially on the Road. plus a possible let down after a milestone win for one of their favourite sons in Wirra.
Might only be one play for me this round as my 'gut' feel is always my best source of capping games! And there isn't many games that really jump out at me
Good point, it was 26 in Brissy against the saints, a lot of the saints looked spent in the third quarter.
Geelong is becoming much more likely for me (as long as the line is below 6 goals).
The possible ruck matchups should be dominated by the cats.
Blake/Ottens against Kruezer/Hampson
While the blues rucks were dominated last week, Freo failed to capitalize by not winning many clearances. I can't see the cats midfielders doing the same.
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Ottens is likely to return this week.
Geelong is becoming much more likely for me (as long as the line is below 6 goals).
The possible ruck matchups should be dominated by the cats.
Blake/Ottens against Kruezer/Hampson
While the blues rucks were dominated last week, Freo failed to capitalize by not winning many clearances. I can't see the cats midfielders doing the same.
They are very strong.........undervalued this round due to a loss against Sydney, and Fremantle has stamina issues and now probably mental ones as well.
Haven't checked into the venue stats, history, etc., but this on initial looks, looks good.
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How is Port not a play this round?
They are very strong.........undervalued this round due to a loss against Sydney, and Fremantle has stamina issues and now probably mental ones as well.
Haven't checked into the venue stats, history, etc., but this on initial looks, looks good.
Seems to be money for Fremantle which i disagree with.
if you look at their results you can say their form is reasonable but from what i saw of the games i would say Geelong played poorly to very poorly for the majority of the match, crows played poorly in the second half and WB played poorly for first 3 quarters.
Did they play poorly due to Fremantle defensive pressure, superior coaching or some other fiendish fremantle plan? not in my opinion, rather it appeared they were not switched on/switched off due to playing a joke team.
Both teams have had away wins in recent past. No team has diminated the matchup IMO.
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Seems to be money for Fremantle which i disagree with.
if you look at their results you can say their form is reasonable but from what i saw of the games i would say Geelong played poorly to very poorly for the majority of the match, crows played poorly in the second half and WB played poorly for first 3 quarters.
Did they play poorly due to Fremantle defensive pressure, superior coaching or some other fiendish fremantle plan? not in my opinion, rather it appeared they were not switched on/switched off due to playing a joke team.
Both teams have had away wins in recent past. No team has diminated the matchup IMO.
These lines have been getting sharp.....very sharp, ever since the books took a bath, a shower, and another bath, two rounds ago with Brisbane over Carlton.
There are some good winners in this round.......LET'S FIND 'EM!!!
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These lines have been getting sharp.....very sharp, ever since the books took a bath, a shower, and another bath, two rounds ago with Brisbane over Carlton.
There are some good winners in this round.......LET'S FIND 'EM!!!
Have to disagree with your last comment there HOH simply because of what you wrote in your first sentence...books are getting very sharp, and sides that you would normally back i.e. Hawks, Bulldogs, Adel, Cats & Syd as they the most consistant and you have a better chance of knowing what you are going to get each round...that said of the above sides they 'all' have negative factors when deciding to pick them this week:
Hawks & Bulldogs - as they simply play each other;
Adel - Having to travel back from Western Aust, playing on approx 5 1/2 days rest due to 'extra' time difference, and now Ess line adjustment to about right IMO;
Cats - Well, they haven't shown anything 'just' yet...premiership hangover I would suggest, wait for them in the 2nd half when the team is fully fit and they look to build momentum going into the finals, and of course when they get their 'heads' right;
Syd - Played interstate last week here is Adel, and also playing side that is 'ok' but in the next few years 'should' get better, and also the fact Rich had a soft and easy win last week + they have 'only' travelled out of Victoria just once this year.
As for the rest, my main focus of the week will be on Coll as that is where IMO the value will be....fade the Eagles again in this spot due to few factors that I will (if I eventually make the play) state in my weekly thread.
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Have to disagree with your last comment there HOH simply because of what you wrote in your first sentence...books are getting very sharp, and sides that you would normally back i.e. Hawks, Bulldogs, Adel, Cats & Syd as they the most consistant and you have a better chance of knowing what you are going to get each round...that said of the above sides they 'all' have negative factors when deciding to pick them this week:
Hawks & Bulldogs - as they simply play each other;
Adel - Having to travel back from Western Aust, playing on approx 5 1/2 days rest due to 'extra' time difference, and now Ess line adjustment to about right IMO;
Cats - Well, they haven't shown anything 'just' yet...premiership hangover I would suggest, wait for them in the 2nd half when the team is fully fit and they look to build momentum going into the finals, and of course when they get their 'heads' right;
Syd - Played interstate last week here is Adel, and also playing side that is 'ok' but in the next few years 'should' get better, and also the fact Rich had a soft and easy win last week + they have 'only' travelled out of Victoria just once this year.
As for the rest, my main focus of the week will be on Coll as that is where IMO the value will be....fade the Eagles again in this spot due to few factors that I will (if I eventually make the play) state in my weekly thread.
Miracle you think the Crows would swap us Burton, Goodwin and McCleod for Barry Hall ?
Very funny ecoute..would have been very interesting to see what they 'would' have given up if Pavlich wanted to come home...boy O boy do you think he wished that he was back in SA now
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Quote Originally Posted by ecoute:
Miracle you think the Crows would swap us Burton, Goodwin and McCleod for Barry Hall ?
Very funny ecoute..would have been very interesting to see what they 'would' have given up if Pavlich wanted to come home...boy O boy do you think he wished that he was back in SA now
Hawks -11.5 (the bulldogs are very lucky to not be 6wins/3losses and will probably slip a couple of places by the end of the year) depending on injuries and sides picked, I like the hawks to cover 2 goals.
Geelong, probaly some play, -39.5 is a bit stiff, might play something like -24.5, not sure but will play them with some bet.
Pies -28.5
Saints -22.5
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I see somebody has put $25000 on the dogs @ +13.5
I'll probably play...
Hawks -11.5 (the bulldogs are very lucky to not be 6wins/3losses and will probably slip a couple of places by the end of the year) depending on injuries and sides picked, I like the hawks to cover 2 goals.
Geelong, probaly some play, -39.5 is a bit stiff, might play something like -24.5, not sure but will play them with some bet.
Miracle, I agree but what I meant was that each round sees results in many games that are no where near (over 20 points) near the spread. So, there are winners in there, we just have to find them!
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Miracle, I agree but what I meant was that each round sees results in many games that are no where near (over 20 points) near the spread. So, there are winners in there, we just have to find them!
$25,000 @ 1.90 ON WESTERN BULLDOGS +13.5
$10,000 @ $1.78 ON ADELAIDE/COLL/BRIS/GEELONG
MULTI
$7,000 @ $1.33 ON ST KILDA V MELBOURNE
$5,000 @ $1.20 ON SYDNEY V RICHMOND
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$25,000 @ 1.90 ON WESTERN BULLDOGS +13.5
$10,000 @ $1.78 ON ADELAIDE/COLL/BRIS/GEELONG
MULTI
$7,000 @ $1.33 ON ST KILDA V MELBOURNE
$5,000 @ $1.20 ON SYDNEY V RICHMOND
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