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AFL Round 2

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Posted: #1
I got some time... so thoughts are on (virtual) paper.

Blues @ Bears -20.5
The Blues tall defenders can't keep up with the big guys. Waite is going to have to move down to JBrown. The small ground made the eGirls look good and kick goals through the mid... I expect Carlton to do the same. The way Brissy played that 4th, the line could be 60... but 20 is about right. I don't think the Blues will be able to keep pace with the big forwards but the Bears mids looked flat and slow. When they get going, the Bears are going to have a lot of value.
Leaning to the Bears at the line... but cautious.

Dees v Pies -46.5
This line is about right but as I got screwed by the Hawks 2H, it's early and percentage isn't as important as avoiding injuries. The MCG will also help the Dees keep it to about that line... but who is going to kick their goals?

Saints -36.5 v Roos
That's a lot of points to give to the Saints. The Roos will have confidence with getting back 6 goals in the last quarter at AAMI. Saints should win but the Roos could and should keep it within that line.

Port @ WCE -12.5
No LeCras hurts. I was almost playing the eGirls... and they should cover this line. Port play well at Subi but I think we have shown by Freo that the home ground advantage will be back at Subi this year.

Syd @ Adelaide - 12.5
I think this one is the only clear play.

Dorkers @ Bummers -16.5
Is anyone brave enough to put money on the Dorkers to win away? 3 more games until Hurley comes back and the Bombers will become much better.

Richmond v Doggies -46.5
Only thing going for the Tigers is that it's at the MCG and not the dome. Rain might prevent a thrashing. Barry Hall to kick 7. 
Robert Walls is an idiot announcing Cousins is done. He's 30 and playing in probably the worst side... and is one of their top 3 players.

Hawks v Cats-12.5
This could go either way but it's hard not to go with the Cats. They did struggle to kick goals for the first three quarters but turned it on when they needed. I expect the same game control.



 
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Posted: #2
 
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Posted: #3 
Brisbane Forecast for Thursday
Rain and possible local thunder clearing early. Afternoon shower or two and a
chance of a thunderstorm. Light winds, shifting light to moderate S to SE during
the day

That confuses things a little but the bigger bodies of Brisbane should handle the conditions better.
 
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Posted: #4
I actually think freo will beat the bombers in mel, I have picked em in all my local footy tip comps but no not brave enough to put cash on freo away.

BOL with the rest of your picks mate
 
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Posted: #5
Hendy don't worry about wet conditions at the Gabba both Brown and Fev are mobile and both can play in the wet. They are not beanstalks.

I think you summed up the game well.


 
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Posted: #6

I'm certainly no expert on AFL let alone AFL totals, but 176.5 looks a little low to me for tonight.

It's cloudy here (in Brisbane) but it hasn't really rained at all today and certainly not enough to affect the Gabba.

 
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Posted: #7
What book has AFL totals?
 
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Posted: #8
Centrebet has 182.5 but I would wait for some of the other books to show their totals.
 
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Posted: #9
TAB got 184.5. Is the weather going to impact play tonight? What is the forecast regarding showers and winds for tonight?
 
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Posted: #10

Big thanks to Jive_Turkey for the weather update.

Playing O185.5 and Brissy -20.5

The only way one won't come in is the thunderstorms... then Brissy should cover.

 

 
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Posted: #11
Bower out... it just gets better.
 
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Posted: #12
...and I expect the showers to come in about the end of 1Q and make this slippery. It's gonna help Simon Black get the most possies.
 
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Posted: #13
damn.. i got brisbane carlton over 184,5 too but just read now bad conditions. still raining or what?
 
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Posted: #14

Quote Originally Posted by Fenerbahce:

damn.. i got brisbane carlton over 184,5 too but just read now bad conditions. still raining or what?

no real rain all day, has threatened but right now it's 50/50 clear skies and cloud

 
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Posted: #15
Quote Originally Posted by Fenerbahce:

damn.. i got brisbane carlton over 184,5 too but just read now bad conditions. still raining or what?


Jive lives nearby

Lets hope a couple of the Carlton boys try to stick it to Fev and he gets paid a stack of penalties.
 
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Posted: #16
Over hits
 
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Posted: #17
Props to Jive but that line wasn't nice to me. Brennan missing that kick at the end was disappointing. To give him credit, he was almost as disappointed as I was. He cost LOTS of people some easter eggs.

1-1... which was the fall back position.

I don't understand why the Roos have so many points and the Dees don't have enough. The eGirls should win but their new structure is going to be tested. There will be some interesting options coming up but nothing yet.

I will however be on Adelaide BIG.


 
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Posted: #18
I know this should probably go in the hoops section but I'm going with the Bulls -4
 
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Posted: #19
Saints Roos O169.5

This line would have been a little low for the MCG... but this is at the Dome. Scores rarely go below 200... they do, but not often. Roos have history of 10-12 goal games and keeping them close last year... but new coach and their end of game effort see this going to 180s for me.

 
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Posted: #20
Can't play the Pies -46.5... the weather might play a part plus the Pies sometimes play to their opposition. They might need to rest a little after last week. They should control the game but that many points is risky.

Playing a couple of short props:
Kane more DT points than Cox
Anthony more possies than Gram

Guys, the weather here in Perth is cloudy. No rain yet and if it comes in, it should be light and enough to make it slippery but not boggy. Will post an update again before the game... heading to Pies HQ to watch the early game.

Also playing the Lakers for three reasons... their home record is great, they will want the confidence against the #2 seed PLUS Rod says so. Considering the Bulls also because Rod knows his shit.
 
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Posted: #21
gl mate. becareful with lakers. im a big supporter and they're in a rut atm. plus utah has more to play for playoffs and revenge mode. bol bynum out as well.
 
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Posted: #22
Cox is being eased in. I expect Cornes to walk all over him.

Anthony vs Gram is an interesting on. Gram was well held by Sydney but usually scores well. Anthony meanwhile is a very underrated DT player.


 
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Posted: #23
Oh... that Anthony v Gram is possessions. I wouldn't play that bet for DT points because it would be too close.

Lakers at home won't be in a rut... away, they don't care.

Adding Heath more DT points than Cam Bruce
 
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Posted: #24
Pies -29.5 at the half

Heath leading 34-27 at the half
 
 
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Posted: #25
Pies are complete shit.
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