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    All Forums | Other

    AFL Round 5 - Discussion

    123 Next Last»
    Miracle1976
    gmanea
    tozer
    ecoute
    HeadOverHeart
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    Miracle1976
    Miracle1976
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    Posted: Apr. 14, 2008 - 8:15 AM ET #1

    Kick starting our discussion early this week for the up-coming AFL Rd 5.  But, before I do...how bad are Freo at the moment, I mean really to lose to the Tigers by more than 10 goals at their so called house of pain!
     
    Quick show of ML's avaliable at the moment with Sportingbet:
     
    Saints ($1.40) Vs Ess ($2.90)              Line 24
    Geel ($1.22) Vs Syd ($4.20)                Line 36
    Adel ($1.45) Vs Freo ($2.72)               Line 26
    Bris ($2.05) Vs Haw ($1.75)                Line 4
    Coll ($1.65) Vs Kang ($2.22)                Line 14
    Melb ($2.90) Vs Carl ($1.40)                Line 24
    WB ($1.39) Vs Rich ($2.95)                 Line 26
    West Coast ($1.83) Vs Port ($1.93)      Line Pk
     
    The ML are correct but the Lines are simply a guess, but we know they are around the mark.
     
    Games that I like the most are Saints, Haw & Port.
     
    The Hawks line I really like, just see them on the move this year, and will give Geel something to think about come Sept.  If Bris falls behind against the Hawks...don't expect the come back the Lions have been able to produce so far to date, and how much of a toll those games have taken out on them will be interesting over the next couple of weeks.  They have also travelled to Perth and Adel already within the first few weeks of the season.
     
    The other two games I will talk about later in the week.
     
    Any thoughts are more than welcome by everyone   
    Reply
    To remove first post, remove entire topic.
    Kick starting our discussion early this week for the up-coming AFL Rd 5.  But, before I do...how bad are Freo at the moment, I mean really to lose to the Tigers by more than 10 goals at their so called house of pain!
     
    Quick show of ML's avaliable at the moment with Sportingbet:
     
    Saints ($1.40) Vs Ess ($2.90)              Line 24
    Geel ($1.22) Vs Syd ($4.20)                Line 36
    Adel ($1.45) Vs Freo ($2.72)               Line 26
    Bris ($2.05) Vs Haw ($1.75)                Line 4
    Coll ($1.65) Vs Kang ($2.22)                Line 14
    Melb ($2.90) Vs Carl ($1.40)                Line 24
    WB ($1.39) Vs Rich ($2.95)                 Line 26
    West Coast ($1.83) Vs Port ($1.93)      Line Pk
     
    The ML are correct but the Lines are simply a guess, but we know they are around the mark.
     
    Games that I like the most are Saints, Haw & Port.
     
    The Hawks line I really like, just see them on the move this year, and will give Geel something to think about come Sept.  If Bris falls behind against the Hawks...don't expect the come back the Lions have been able to produce so far to date, and how much of a toll those games have taken out on them will be interesting over the next couple of weeks.  They have also travelled to Perth and Adel already within the first few weeks of the season.
     
    The other two games I will talk about later in the week.
     
    Any thoughts are more than welcome by everyone   
     
    gmanea
    gmanea
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    Posted: Apr. 14, 2008 - 5:14 PM ET #2

    Early looks mate I don't think you're far off
    Reply
    Early looks mate I don't think you're far off
     
    tozer
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    Posted: Apr. 14, 2008 - 6:54 PM ET #3

    Yes, the Lions have had a very hard start to the season with all the travel but come back home for a couple of games then face the cats. For then to be sitting 2/2 would be sit comfortably with them at this stage, IMO. I love the hawks this year as well, scary thing is they won't be hitting their peak until at least next year.
     
    I like the 3 picks you've suggested but Carlton looks like a possibility for me too. Maybe the swans too if the line is that large.
    Reply
    Yes, the Lions have had a very hard start to the season with all the travel but come back home for a couple of games then face the cats. For then to be sitting 2/2 would be sit comfortably with them at this stage, IMO. I love the hawks this year as well, scary thing is they won't be hitting their peak until at least next year.
     
    I like the 3 picks you've suggested but Carlton looks like a possibility for me too. Maybe the swans too if the line is that large.
     
    tozer
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    Posted: Apr. 14, 2008 - 7:19 PM ET #4

    Melbourne/Carlton
    There's a couple of reasons why this is probably a pick for me but the main reason...
    Carlton's biggest problem has been their defence, all other positions are up to par. The Dees on the other hand, IMO have a very poor forward line and can't be considered a threat in any game while its like it is. Their 2 main forwards neitz and Robbo were both match winners in their prime. They can still be a help to melbourne but they should really be second-stringers to another forward (that they don't have). Robbo squeaked out 3 goals last week but it was in the last 15mins when the game was lost and the pressure was off. Carlton's backs should have no problem nulifying these two whilst their onballers and forwards can be outstanding and should be against the Dees.

    Reply

    Melbourne/Carlton
    There's a couple of reasons why this is probably a pick for me but the main reason...
    Carlton's biggest problem has been their defence, all other positions are up to par. The Dees on the other hand, IMO have a very poor forward line and can't be considered a threat in any game while its like it is. Their 2 main forwards neitz and Robbo were both match winners in their prime. They can still be a help to melbourne but they should really be second-stringers to another forward (that they don't have). Robbo squeaked out 3 goals last week but it was in the last 15mins when the game was lost and the pressure was off. Carlton's backs should have no problem nulifying these two whilst their onballers and forwards can be outstanding and should be against the Dees.

     
    ecoute
    ecoute
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    Posted: Apr. 14, 2008 - 7:41 PM ET #5

    Barry Hall. 6 weeks out imo. Bring back Nick Davis. No tantrums, longer kick, more accurate kick, greater speed, greater stamina, smarter player and half the price 

    If Hall is meant to be in the Senior leadership group goes out and does something stupid and lets the team down by being suspended 7 games or whatever it will be why isn't he dealt with like Davis was and still is. 

    AFL Death match: Cam Mooney vs Bazza Hall

    Reply

    Barry Hall. 6 weeks out imo. Bring back Nick Davis. No tantrums, longer kick, more accurate kick, greater speed, greater stamina, smarter player and half the price 

    If Hall is meant to be in the Senior leadership group goes out and does something stupid and lets the team down by being suspended 7 games or whatever it will be why isn't he dealt with like Davis was and still is. 

    AFL Death match: Cam Mooney vs Bazza Hall

     
    ecoute
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    Posted: Apr. 14, 2008 - 7:50 PM ET #6

    You know some of those suprise me;
     
    Saints ($1.40) Vs Ess ($2.90)
    I would not favour Saints for anything at the moment. The last few games have proven Saints are innefective versus running teams. So unless the books can see the Saints changing tactics I take the Dons even with Lloyd and Lucas out.
     
    Melb ($2.90) Vs Carl ($1.40)
    What is with the haircuts boys
     
    West Coast ($1.83) Vs Port ($1.93) 
    West Coast are really banged up. A couple of players went to the sidelines vs the Swans as well. I would be suprise to see the Weagles win this game.
     
     
     
    Reply
    You know some of those suprise me;
     
    Saints ($1.40) Vs Ess ($2.90)
    I would not favour Saints for anything at the moment. The last few games have proven Saints are innefective versus running teams. So unless the books can see the Saints changing tactics I take the Dons even with Lloyd and Lucas out.
     
    Melb ($2.90) Vs Carl ($1.40)
    What is with the haircuts boys
     
    West Coast ($1.83) Vs Port ($1.93) 
    West Coast are really banged up. A couple of players went to the sidelines vs the Swans as well. I would be suprise to see the Weagles win this game.
     
     
     
     
    tozer
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    Posted: Apr. 14, 2008 - 7:50 PM ET #7

    Couldn't agree more ecoute, he couldn't have let the team down anymore than he did.
     
    Do you think there was a particular reason why davis was dropped that wasn't made public?
    Reply
    Couldn't agree more ecoute, he couldn't have let the team down anymore than he did.
     
    Do you think there was a particular reason why davis was dropped that wasn't made public?
     
    tozer
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    Posted: Apr. 14, 2008 - 7:55 PM ET #8

    Also agree with you on the saints/ess...
     
    • the dogs killed the saints
    • if Hille didn't injure his shoulder the dons/dogs match would have been a hell of a lot closer, as he was dominating up to that point.
    Reply
    Also agree with you on the saints/ess...
     
    • the dogs killed the saints
    • if Hille didn't injure his shoulder the dons/dogs match would have been a hell of a lot closer, as he was dominating up to that point.
     
    ecoute
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    Posted: Apr. 14, 2008 - 8:41 PM ET #9

    Tozer, this bullshit goes to what happened in 2006. The same sort of thing I am asking is being asked by fans elsewhere. Here is one link though you can read stuff at readandwhite and other forums as well;
     
    https://www.bigfooty.com/forum/showthread.php?s=bed7df7a18ae46cdcc19af7667fe1948&t=425766
     
    Be interesting to see what perspective the other have about the games I highlighted maybe they see something in it I don't ?
    Reply
    Tozer, this bullshit goes to what happened in 2006. The same sort of thing I am asking is being asked by fans elsewhere. Here is one link though you can read stuff at readandwhite and other forums as well;
     
    https://www.bigfooty.com/forum/showthread.php?s=bed7df7a18ae46cdcc19af7667fe1948&t=425766
     
    Be interesting to see what perspective the other have about the games I highlighted maybe they see something in it I don't ?
     
    tozer
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    Posted: Apr. 14, 2008 - 9:05 PM ET #10

    Its hard not to see Port coming out red hot like last week
    Reply
    Its hard not to see Port coming out red hot like last week
     
    HeadOverHeart
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    Posted: Apr. 15, 2008 - 12:01 AM ET #11

    First of all, thank you Miracle1976 for starting this thread.  Just stumbled my ass out of the NBA forum and sweated out a HALF-POINT win on the Jazz after being up well for most of the game.  Houston bombing threes, Jazz needing to make their FTs, scrub sub comes in and hits a three with 14.0 seconds left....more FTs......ANOTHER THREE!  , two more FTs............and then one last three attempt for the heart-breaking moose with 2.0 seconds left by Houston.............and it hits the rim.

    Oh hell..................

    Coming back into this forum is like a warm blanket on a cold, winter night. 

    I think I'll be staying in from now on, thank you.
    Reply
    First of all, thank you Miracle1976 for starting this thread.  Just stumbled my ass out of the NBA forum and sweated out a HALF-POINT win on the Jazz after being up well for most of the game.  Houston bombing threes, Jazz needing to make their FTs, scrub sub comes in and hits a three with 14.0 seconds left....more FTs......ANOTHER THREE!  , two more FTs............and then one last three attempt for the heart-breaking moose with 2.0 seconds left by Houston.............and it hits the rim.

    Oh hell..................

    Coming back into this forum is like a warm blanket on a cold, winter night. 

    I think I'll be staying in from now on, thank you.
     
    HeadOverHeart
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    Posted: Apr. 15, 2008 - 12:07 AM ET #12

    First glance, and I mean, first glance:

    *Bombers look the big value.

    *Look at that price on Sydney!   Surely the line has to be in the 20s.  Yes please.

    *Hawthorn look value.

    *Roos look value.

    *Port look value as well, perhaps.

    And it isn't that Collingwood is that bad....just Richmond is better.  They played a very nice tactical game that suited their strengths and hit out at the Pies' weaknesses.  I laid those out in an earlier thread for Round Four.  Luckily, the paper stats came true on the pitch....as you know, that is not always the case. (Chelsea you bastards! )
    Reply
    First glance, and I mean, first glance:

    *Bombers look the big value.

    *Look at that price on Sydney!   Surely the line has to be in the 20s.  Yes please.

    *Hawthorn look value.

    *Roos look value.

    *Port look value as well, perhaps.

    And it isn't that Collingwood is that bad....just Richmond is better.  They played a very nice tactical game that suited their strengths and hit out at the Pies' weaknesses.  I laid those out in an earlier thread for Round Four.  Luckily, the paper stats came true on the pitch....as you know, that is not always the case. (Chelsea you bastards! )
     
    HeadOverHeart
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    Posted: Apr. 15, 2008 - 12:16 AM ET #13

    Oops....my bad at the bottom of that last post.  Not Collingwood...meant the Dockers.  Jeez.....still hot and bothered from that NBA near-nightmare....sorry guys.  Ignore that last comment.

    (the one about Chelsea still stands though!  )
    Reply
    Oops....my bad at the bottom of that last post.  Not Collingwood...meant the Dockers.  Jeez.....still hot and bothered from that NBA near-nightmare....sorry guys.  Ignore that last comment.

    (the one about Chelsea still stands though!  )
     
    ecoute
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    Posted: Apr. 15, 2008 - 12:33 AM ET #14

    Headoverheart as you already know, that is betting.
     
    I played the over yesterday on the ORL v CHI game and it should have hit then 32 points in the 4th quarter  On the flip side. Just won the OVER in the GS v PH game.
     
    ....... back to footy. Dockers suprise me - I think they are like Carlton they have forgotten how to win. Des Headland up forward is stupid the guy can't even kick 40 metres let alone 30 and straight. McPharlin though is a freak and they should stop playing him back and move him forward.
    Reply
    Headoverheart as you already know, that is betting.
     
    I played the over yesterday on the ORL v CHI game and it should have hit then 32 points in the 4th quarter  On the flip side. Just won the OVER in the GS v PH game.
     
    ....... back to footy. Dockers suprise me - I think they are like Carlton they have forgotten how to win. Des Headland up forward is stupid the guy can't even kick 40 metres let alone 30 and straight. McPharlin though is a freak and they should stop playing him back and move him forward.
     
    Miracle1976
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    Posted: Apr. 15, 2008 - 12:58 AM ET #15

    Don't talk to me about bad days....this is what I had:
     
    1.  GSW +4.5 = lose by 6 after having a 5 point lead at end of the 3rd Q (lucky for me though that they could get back into the game with a great 3rd Q);
     
    2.  Spurs -3 second half...win the 3rd Q by 2, but then fall apart in the last, but scrap out the win;
     
    3.  Cleve in the baseball, to have a nice 3 run lead going into the 7th innings but to lose by 2 by not scoring for the rest of the game;
     
    4.  The U9 in the above mentioned game, and looking good except for the above blowup by Cleve in the final innings;
     
    5.  Minn in the baseball to have a 4 run lead going into the 8th inning, but to lose by 2 at the end;
     
    6.  LAA Vs Tex O11, bases loaded at the top of the 7th or 8th inning with no outs....zero runs there, game ends on 11 = push; and
     
    7.  Tampa Bay come back and level with the NYY in the 8th innings, but then lose by 1;
     
    That there my friends is a bad day at the office.  Total bets = 10.  Total moosed = roughly 5-6!
     
    Will get back later about Aussie Rules....just a little pissed off at the moment!
     
    Reply
    Don't talk to me about bad days....this is what I had:
     
    1.  GSW +4.5 = lose by 6 after having a 5 point lead at end of the 3rd Q (lucky for me though that they could get back into the game with a great 3rd Q);
     
    2.  Spurs -3 second half...win the 3rd Q by 2, but then fall apart in the last, but scrap out the win;
     
    3.  Cleve in the baseball, to have a nice 3 run lead going into the 7th innings but to lose by 2 by not scoring for the rest of the game;
     
    4.  The U9 in the above mentioned game, and looking good except for the above blowup by Cleve in the final innings;
     
    5.  Minn in the baseball to have a 4 run lead going into the 8th inning, but to lose by 2 at the end;
     
    6.  LAA Vs Tex O11, bases loaded at the top of the 7th or 8th inning with no outs....zero runs there, game ends on 11 = push; and
     
    7.  Tampa Bay come back and level with the NYY in the 8th innings, but then lose by 1;
     
    That there my friends is a bad day at the office.  Total bets = 10.  Total moosed = roughly 5-6!
     
    Will get back later about Aussie Rules....just a little pissed off at the moment!
     
     
    showmethemoney1
    showmethemoney1
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    Posted: Apr. 15, 2008 - 1:03 AM ET #16

    my leans so far are:
    saints -17.5to 19.5
    just read lloyd might not be risked..mcveigh is out hes been one of  there top 3 players so far this year as soon as they lost him doggies ran all over ess...if the saints had won one of there last 2 the line would be -27.5..so the lower odds due to saints playing tough games so far favour the punter. theyve lost to 2 teams that havent lost yet and are in need of a win...how i mean the odds sway back to the punter is saints could be -27.5 and 4-0 to start the season and not neededing the win as much and ambushed by essendon and not cover. instead they will come out hard so they can start to settle a position in the top  and or top 4 against a team missing 3 of its best 6 players..they have no injuries and might get gardiner and shceider back so will have there first full strength team in years
    Reply
    my leans so far are:
    saints -17.5to 19.5
    just read lloyd might not be risked..mcveigh is out hes been one of  there top 3 players so far this year as soon as they lost him doggies ran all over ess...if the saints had won one of there last 2 the line would be -27.5..so the lower odds due to saints playing tough games so far favour the punter. theyve lost to 2 teams that havent lost yet and are in need of a win...how i mean the odds sway back to the punter is saints could be -27.5 and 4-0 to start the season and not neededing the win as much and ambushed by essendon and not cover. instead they will come out hard so they can start to settle a position in the top  and or top 4 against a team missing 3 of its best 6 players..they have no injuries and might get gardiner and shceider back so will have there first full strength team in years
     
    showmethemoney1
    showmethemoney1
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    Posted: Apr. 15, 2008 - 1:08 AM ET #17

    also taking the dogs at the line...terry wallace wrote a article complaining about the fixture of richmond playing in the heat and then flying back the next day and not having enough rest..they may have used up everything to thrash freo...its at telstra which favours the doggies if it was at the mcg then the line is spot on as richmond have more top heavy players and doggies like the fast track at telstra. doggies have the form home ground advantage n tigers coach already has a excuse for losing.
    Reply
    also taking the dogs at the line...terry wallace wrote a article complaining about the fixture of richmond playing in the heat and then flying back the next day and not having enough rest..they may have used up everything to thrash freo...its at telstra which favours the doggies if it was at the mcg then the line is spot on as richmond have more top heavy players and doggies like the fast track at telstra. doggies have the form home ground advantage n tigers coach already has a excuse for losing.
     
    showmethemoney1
    showmethemoney1
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    Posted: Apr. 15, 2008 - 1:19 AM ET #18

    bad luck miaracle regarding your day in the  leagues
    Reply
    bad luck miaracle regarding your day in the  leagues
     
    ecoute
    ecoute
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    Posted: Apr. 15, 2008 - 2:00 AM ET #19

    My sympathies too mate. Lots of tough loses there.
     
    Showmethemoney, McVeigh is out ?
    Fuck I hate Terry Wallace
    Reply
    My sympathies too mate. Lots of tough loses there.
     
    Showmethemoney, McVeigh is out ?
    Fuck I hate Terry Wallace
     
    tozer
    tozer
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    Posted: Apr. 15, 2008 - 2:38 AM ET #20

    Yep mcveigh is out for 4 weeks

    Reply

    Yep mcveigh is out for 4 weeks

     
    binomial
    binomial
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    Posted: Apr. 15, 2008 - 2:40 AM ET #21

    the only bet i had today in baseball i bet the wrong team turning a loss into a win. only worked it out afterward. 
     
    I like the look of Sydney, Port and Kangaroos.
     
    Mcveigh has been very impressive for Essendon. If Lloyd doesn't play they are looking under manned to me. Saints have looked very ordinairy but their losses have been to top 4 contenders. They handled Carlton by 40. There wasn't much between Carlton an Essendon. Also Essendon has similarities to Adelaide the week before when they had limited bench in the last quarter, takes alot out of you. My lean is St Kilda.
    Reply
    the only bet i had today in baseball i bet the wrong team turning a loss into a win. only worked it out afterward. 
     
    I like the look of Sydney, Port and Kangaroos.
     
    Mcveigh has been very impressive for Essendon. If Lloyd doesn't play they are looking under manned to me. Saints have looked very ordinairy but their losses have been to top 4 contenders. They handled Carlton by 40. There wasn't much between Carlton an Essendon. Also Essendon has similarities to Adelaide the week before when they had limited bench in the last quarter, takes alot out of you. My lean is St Kilda.
     
    rod_steel
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    Posted: Apr. 15, 2008 - 6:45 AM ET #22

    Personally I think the Eagles are value and I will be looking to take a slice of that +105 on offer against the winless Power team.

     

    Reply

    Personally I think the Eagles are value and I will be looking to take a slice of that +105 on offer against the winless Power team.

     

     
    ecoute
    ecoute
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    Posted: Apr. 15, 2008 - 9:36 AM ET #23

    Quote Originally Posted by binomial:

    the only bet i had today in baseball i bet the wrong team turning a loss into a win. only worked it out afterward. 


    hahaha I did that myself last week. I meant to play Germano but picked Sanchez in the SD v SF game.
    Reply
    Quote Originally Posted by binomial:

    the only bet i had today in baseball i bet the wrong team turning a loss into a win. only worked it out afterward. 


    hahaha I did that myself last week. I meant to play Germano but picked Sanchez in the SD v SF game.
     
    ecoute
    ecoute
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    Posted: Apr. 15, 2008 - 9:46 AM ET #24

    LOL read this from the Weagles forums;

    https://www.eaglesflyinghigh.com/forum/viewtopic.php?f=2&t=11944&st=0&sk=t&sd=a&sid=373c21960e4311edaa6e4860184d6556


    Reply
    LOL read this from the Weagles forums;

    https://www.eaglesflyinghigh.com/forum/viewtopic.php?f=2&t=11944&st=0&sk=t&sd=a&sid=373c21960e4311edaa6e4860184d6556


     
     
    binomial
    binomial
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    Posted: Apr. 15, 2008 - 9:51 PM ET #25

    ecoute, while embarrasing it was even sweeter because I thought i backed minnesota who blew a 9-4 lead.
     
    I also like Hawks to beat Brisbane. played them two units ML at $1.77.
     
    Why do you like WC Rod? I played port 2u ML @$1.88.
     
    Lasseters put lines up. Pretty much moved toward peoples leans.
     
    I think I will be tempted by the Saints -18.5 or maybe will play 1-40.
     
    Sydney +26.5 is not very enticing after getting excited over 36.5.
    Reply
    ecoute, while embarrasing it was even sweeter because I thought i backed minnesota who blew a 9-4 lead.
     
    I also like Hawks to beat Brisbane. played them two units ML at $1.77.
     
    Why do you like WC Rod? I played port 2u ML @$1.88.
     
    Lasseters put lines up. Pretty much moved toward peoples leans.
     
    I think I will be tempted by the Saints -18.5 or maybe will play 1-40.
     
    Sydney +26.5 is not very enticing after getting excited over 36.5.
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