AFL Round 5

Thanks tozer.  This round scares me.  Either I am gonna rake it in or take it in, don't know which.

A couple of people have said that, I hope I'm not seeing it wrong because I think there are a few matches that can be won (2-3 tomorow, 1 sunday). I'll be playing them fairly big

Actually, I only got 1 big play today and probably 2 tomorrow.

Adelaide/Freo
Have to go with Adelaide at -18.5. Freo don't travel well at the best of times. I really thought Mark Harvey could have put a bit of heart in this team. With Headland out, I think the crows will be able to control the middle and if they can, Pavlich's effectiveness will be limited. I see the crows winning by at least 30.
Crows -18.5 (7 units)

Brisbane/Hawks
If I didn't barrack for Brisbane I'd probably put some money on the hawks tonight. Not that would stop me putting money on them but its hard to be impartial. As said earlier, the hawks are a top 4 side and except for Stuart Dew they are at full strength. Any side would have to play exceptional footy to beat a top 4 side at full strength, so unfortunately I'd lean to the Hawks. I may end up putting a couple of units on them, I'll see.

 Last week, there were 3 big late withdrawls (Charman, Mitchell, Burns) that really pisses me off, apart from the pies (Burns) the other 2 withdrawls didn't seem to matter. Hopefully there won't be any this weekend (on the sides I've chosen)

Not good yesterday with the crows but if a team misses that many easy shots (especially in the 3rd quarter) its going to be hard to cover. They should have been over 40 up going into the last, oh well, today I like two games.

WC/Port
I'm going with Port here. I think they played very good footy last week, exceptional first half. Its a bit of an ask to win over there but I think they will get a win. If you look at WC's best 4-5 players (which they will be relying on to play a big game if they are to win) Port has players of equal quality. I just think Port has a better spread of players over the rest of the ground.

I'm yet to see a line movement that has swung to the winning team. If anybody can recall one (this year) please let me know.
Port ML (5 units)
Port 1st quarter (5 units)

Melbourne/Carlton
Going against a lot of views here but going with Carlton. The line maybe overinflated (for a team with one win in god knows how long) but I think they will have a big win. I'll put a bit more of a writeup later.
Carlton -20.5 (5 units)

Bumped it up 2 units
Carlton -20.5 (7 units)

IMO this will be the last time there'll be a line under 40points for the Dees

Scrap those 2 bets

Just going with Port -6.5 (7 units)