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Cycling: 2008 Giro D'Italia

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Captain
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Posted: #1
Astana have been given a late invite, but don't know how Contador's form is. So hard to bet on him outright as he isn't prepared. Kloden and Leipheimer have been riding alright but Kloden has been riding better. Other chances are Karpets, Di Luca, Simoni, Ricco and Soler.
 
Stage 1 tonight is the TTT.
 
Astana may have a gun team but it's hard to tell how their preparation is. Slipstream have been preparing for this and they want this. Hard to go past Slipstream.
 
Slipstream have the upper edge. It will be a battle of CSC and Slipstream for first and the battle for the minor places are between Astana, High Road (who are targetting the TTT) and Tinkoff - maybe.

Slipstream to win stage 1 @ $3.25

Head to heads

Quickstep over Milram @ $1.72

Small play on LPR over Liquigas @ $2.40 - Di Luca will want a good start and he has a solid team.
 
Predictions
 
1. Slipstream
2. CSC
3. High Road
4. Astana
5. LPR
 
Good luck!
 
Captain
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Posted: #2
Quote Originally Posted by Bolar:



Slipstream to win stage 1 @ $3.25

Head to heads

Quickstep over Milram @ $1.72

Small play on LPR over Liquigas @ $2.40 - Di Luca will want a good start and he has a solid team.
 
Predictions
 
1. Slipstream
2. CSC
3. High Road
4. Astana
5. LPR
 
Good luck!

 

WON, WON, LOST - got the top 3 too.

 
Captain
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Posted: #3
Stage 3 tonight, one of the only 4 stages that suits the sprinters.
 
Mark Cavendish E/W $4/$1.75 - Young sprinter who has won a lot of races this year already. Can outsprint anyone in this field and if he gets the right lead-up, no one will beat him. The uncertainty is that this is his second grand tour, and that will go against him, but he is the fastest man here and that's good enough for me.
 
Head to head
 
Graeme Brown over Robert Forster @ $1.95
 
Good luck!
 
Captain
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Posted: #4
Stage 3 tonight, one of the only 4 stages that suits the sprinters.
 
Mark Cavendish E/W $4/$1.75 - Young sprinter who has won a lot of races this year already. Can outsprint anyone in this field and if he gets the right lead-up, no one will beat him. The uncertainty is that this is his second grand tour, and that will go against him, but he is the fastest man here and that's good enough for me.
 
Head to head
 
Graeme Brown over Robert Forster @ $1.95
 
Good luck!
 
Captain
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Posted: #5
Adding
 
Zabel to podium @ $5.50
 
Good luck!
 
Captain
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Posted: #6
Quote Originally Posted by Bolar:

Stage 3 tonight, one of the only 4 stages that suits the sprinters.
 
Mark Cavendish E/W $4/$1.75 - Young sprinter who has won a lot of races this year already. Can outsprint anyone in this field and if he gets the right lead-up, no one will beat him. The uncertainty is that this is his second grand tour, and that will go against him, but he is the fastest man here and that's good enough for me.
 
Head to head
 
Graeme Brown over Robert Forster @ $1.95
 
Good luck!

 

LOST and LOST

 
Captain
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Posted: #7
Quote Originally Posted by Bolar:

Adding
 
Zabel to podium @ $5.50
 
Good luck!

WON

 
Captain
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Posted: #8
Stage 4
 
Cavendish E/W - $6/$2.40 - I'm riding the Cav train. He needs to take this stage win after the bad luck yesterday. McEwen will be hungry too, so I can see McEwen and Cavendish fighting this out.
 
McEwen to podium @ $2
 
1. Cavendish
2. McEwen
3. Zabel
 
Good luck!
 
Captain
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Posted: #9
Quote Originally Posted by Bolar:

Stage 4
 
Cavendish E/W - $6/$2.40 - I'm riding the Cav train. He needs to take this stage win after the bad luck yesterday. McEwen will be hungry too, so I can see McEwen and Cavendish fighting this out.
 
McEwen to podium @ $2
 
1. Cavendish
2. McEwen
3. Zabel
 
Good luck!

Cav breaks through.

 

WON and lost on McEwen.

Another good day.

 
Captain
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Posted: #10
Stage 5
 
This stage is very similar to stage 2.

Pellizotti E/W $15/$4
Pellizotti over Rodriguez @ $1.72
Pellizotti over Rebellin @ $2.30

Pellizotti will want to stay in pink so he will be thereabouts at the finish. In stage 2, which was a similar trek to this stage, he finished 4th just outside of the podium. He finished ahead of Rodriguez and Rebellin pipped him ahead of third position - yet he is paying $2.30 to beat him? Jump on that! So as he needs to stay in pink, I feel this is the way to go.
 
Captain
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Posted: #11
Quote Originally Posted by Bolar:

Stage 5
 
This stage is very similar to stage 2.

Pellizotti E/W $15/$4
Pellizotti over Rodriguez @ $1.72
Pellizotti over Rebellin @ $2.30

Pellizotti will want to stay in pink so he will be thereabouts at the finish. In stage 2, which was a similar trek to this stage, he finished 4th just outside of the podium. He finished ahead of Rodriguez and Rebellin pipped him ahead of third position - yet he is paying $2.30 to beat him? Jump on that! So as he needs to stay in pink, I feel this is the way to go.

LOST

WON

WON

Let's continue this success. Anyone following me?

 
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Posted: #12
I haven't placed any wagers but I've been following. Well done
 
Captain
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Posted: #13

Thanks Tozer. Let's also kill the AFL this week.

Like Cavendish earlier in the week, I'm keen on sticking with Pellizotti after what I read. He was keen to win the stage yesterday, but didn't get the chance to - they didn't catch up. He has an attacking mind. I like that. As he missed out yesterday and as he won here last year, it's hard to pass up putting something on him. Regardless, I have come out with a profit so far, so may aswell do something today.

Pellizotti E/W $14/$4

Also I'll put something small on Rinaldo Nocentini @ $29/$8 - see if he fancies himself in a break today.

Also I might add that before yesterday's stage he mentioned that he wants a stage win whilst in the leaders jersey. I'm really confident a break won't stay away today and he will ride himself to either a win or a podium.

 
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Posted: #14

Thanks Tozer. Let's also kill the AFL this week.

Like Cavendish earlier in the week, I'm keen on sticking with Pellizotti after what I read. He was keen to win the stage yesterday, but didn't get the chance to - they didn't catch up. He has an attacking mind. I like that. As he missed out yesterday and as he won here last year, it's hard to pass up putting something on him. Regardless, I have come out with a profit so far, so may aswell do something today.

Pellizotti E/W $14/$4

Also I'll put something small on Rinaldo Nocentini @ $29/$8 - see if he fancies himself in a break today.

Also I might add that before yesterday's stage he mentioned that he wants a stage win whilst in the leaders jersey. I'm really confident a break won't stay away today and he will ride himself to either a win or a podium.

 
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Posted: #15
Nup
 
The break stayed away. Last night was a loss.
 
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Posted: #16

Stage 7, the first real mountain stage of this year's Giro.

I'm going out for a long shot here and I had to quote this guy to get his odds as they weren't up and put something small on him.

Kanstantin Sitsou E/W $101/$26

You may think I'm crazy, but at these odds I'm not. Let's look at a few things to justify this selection.

Today's stage has a nice climb then a nice incline to the finish. Kanstantin will be with the main GC contenders. But the thing that strikes me good about this stage is that Kanstantin is not afraid to attack and I think he will on the final climb and I think if he does, the main GC contenders may let him go as really he isn't a huge threat to the overall win. If he attacks, the accelaration he has on mountains - Contador will go with him. But Contador's form is scratchy.

Also, in Stage 6 of the Tour of Georgia a few weeks ago, Kanstantin attacked on the HC final climb leaving Leipheimer and Lowe alone not able to go with him. He has the form behind him. If he doesn't attack, then he will be with the main group at the finish and that will have about 10 - 20 riders so I'm quite happy with that probability considering the price.
 
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Posted: #17
Quote Originally Posted by Bolar:

Stage 7, the first real mountain stage of this year's Giro.

I'm going out for a long shot here and I had to quote this guy to get his odds as they weren't up and put something small on him.

Kanstantin Sitsou E/W $101/$26

You may think I'm crazy, but at these odds I'm not. Let's look at a few things to justify this selection.

Today's stage has a nice climb then a nice incline to the finish. Kanstantin will be with the main GC contenders. But the thing that strikes me good about this stage is that Kanstantin is not afraid to attack and I think he will on the final climb and I think if he does, the main GC contenders may let him go as really he isn't a huge threat to the overall win. If he attacks, the accelaration he has on mountains - Contador will go with him. But Contador's form is scratchy.

Also, in Stage 6 of the Tour of Georgia a few weeks ago, Kanstantin attacked on the HC final climb leaving Leipheimer and Lowe alone not able to go with him. He has the form behind him. If he doesn't attack, then he will be with the main group at the finish and that will have about 10 - 20 riders so I'm quite happy with that probability considering the price.

Nearly paid off. Couldn't quite catch the 6 man break from the 30 chasing pack.

 

 
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Posted: #18
Stage 8 - there's a descent near the end so no sprinters.
 

Stage 8

Rebellin E/W $9/$3 - large
Pellizotti E/W $26/$7.25 - medium
Peipoli E/W $51/$12.50 - small
Siutsou E/W $51/$12.50 - small

Peipoli rode well yesterday. This stage suits Rebellin. Pellizotti should be up there and I'll kick myself if Siutsou does something and I wasn't on it. All these 4 riders were thereabouts on Stage 2 and after last night, guys like Ricco and Di Luca may not try and win the stage.

 
 
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Posted: #19
Quote Originally Posted by Bolar:

Stage 8 - there's a descent near the end so no sprinters.
 

Stage 8

Rebellin E/W $9/$3 - large
Pellizotti E/W $26/$7.25 - medium
Peipoli E/W $51/$12.50 - small
Siutsou E/W $51/$12.50 - small

Peipoli rode well yesterday. This stage suits Rebellin. Pellizotti should be up there and I'll kick myself if Siutsou does something and I wasn't on it. All these 4 riders were thereabouts on Stage 2 and after last night, guys like Ricco and Di Luca may not try and win the stage.

 

WON

Lost x 3

Still a winning day. Pellizotti came 4th and if Piepoli didn't attack too early, he could have been on there too.

 
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Posted: #20

Stage 9 - the last sprinters stage until after the mountains.

Cavendish E/W $4/$1.80

Forster to podium @ $4.25

Cavendish over Bennati @ $2.20

Forster over Hernandez @ $1.75

Good luck!

 
Captain
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Posted: #21

Time trial

Any of the first 3 that I tip can win. The others are just small value bets incase of a crash.

Kloden to win @ $2.40 - Large stake
Leipheimer to win @ $7.50 - medium stake
Gusev to win @ $36 - small stake

Martin to win @ $36 - very small stake
Pinotti to win @ $56 - very small stake

Head to Head

Gusev over Karpets @ $1.82
Gusev over Millar @ $2.05
Pinotti over Menchov @ $2.30

 
Captain
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Posted: #22
The previous post with stage 9 - all those corresponding bets lost.
 
Captain
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Posted: #23
Quote Originally Posted by Bolar:

Time trial

Any of the first 3 that I tip can win. The others are just small value bets incase of a crash.

Kloden to win @ $2.40 - Large stake
Leipheimer to win @ $7.50 - medium stake
Gusev to win @ $36 - small stake

Martin to win @ $36 - very small stake
Pinotti to win @ $56 - very small stake

Head to Head

Gusev over Karpets @ $1.82
Gusev over Millar @ $2.05
Pinotti over Menchov @ $2.30

Lost the wins - Kloden should have won. Pinotti would have won if the weather was really bad at the end.

Won the head to heads. A winning day - mainly thanks to Millar fucking up and Pinotti riding the time trial of his life. Next time trial, I stick with head to heads.

------

Today's stage is nice and hilly, but not too demanding. Sella won this stage in 2004, so considering he's been riding alright, he is good value today.

Sella each way $14/$4.25
Rebellin each way $9/$3

 
Captain
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Posted: #24
Lost the above 2 bets.
 
Today is the sprint finish!
 
Cavendish to win $4.50/$1.60
 
Can't go past the fast man here.
 
 
Hall of Fame
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Posts: 25922
Posted: #25
Holy shit man, it doesn't get closer. Unlucky
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