Cycling: 2009 Giro d'Italia

5 pages! Yay!

I think Di Luca is the strongest play today.  Take him in a H2H over Menchov @ 2.08 and over Basso @ 1.588

 

I had in mind Leipheimer over Arroyo as well, but I think Valjavec over Masciarelli @ 2.49 has more value.

 

And just for fun, Forster over Hunter @ 3.05. They win both be in the train crossing the line 50 minutes late, you never know who can be there first.

Lost on all the wins. Won both head to heads!

-1.5 units for the stage

I hope someone took advantage of my 3 serious selections, they ended up all winners.

 

A breakaway with Voekler will cross the line 1st tomorrow, no H2H suggestion

This is where you look at the hungry riders who have unfinished business.

 

Voeckler

Bertolini (Serramenti is an attacking team and one can remember Bertolini's bad luck when Boassen-Hagen caught him when he won his first GT stage) 

Visconti (ISD will always have someone in the break. Visconti has been unlucky)

Voigt (Will try)

Xacobeo will send someone (Vorganov is always in breaks)

 

Columbia will send someone in the break. My guess is Boassen-Hagen.

 

Yet again, there are some sprinters who are still here.

 

Davis, Gatto, Pettachi, Boasson-Hagen, Hunter, Forster, Swift, Haedo so they havn't battled over the mountains for nothing.

 

Quick-Step will work for Davis. Columbia will work. Barloworld will work and Milram will work. Could be just enough to bring back an escape?

 

What could happen is the break gets an early advantage and then Columbia or another team drive the peloton to break it down then someone counter attacks.

 

Hard to get a read on tonights stage. The GC men want to preserve their energy for tomorrow but this is a good chance for the sprinters who battled through the mountains to go for another stage win. I'm going to play riders for the breakaway and a rider for a sprint to cover all bases. Similar to the success I had on the weekend.

 

Saturday is uncertain for a break too. If the GC is that close between Menchov and Di Luca, then Di Luca will want the break to be caught on Saturday so he can try and get some valuable time bonuses.

 

Who is going to be in the break?

 

Voeckler hasn't tried for a win yet even though he has tried a break. His chance is running out. It's today or Saturday. It's almost certain he will be Bbox's representative in the breakaway.

 

[B]Xacebeo[/B] will try a break as usual. Their representatives should be Isaichev and Vorganov.
[b]Garmin[/b] will be wanting to save face. They have not had any success yet. Julien Dean is their sprinter but has no chance of winning a bunch sprint. Look for them to maybe throw someone in the break. Zabriskie or Pate.
[b]ISD[/b] are an attacking team. Riders are always in the break representing them. I have narrowed it down to Sacrselli and probably their sprinter Gatto who may try a break.
[b]Quick-Step[/b] although riding for Davis, may send someone up the road. Facci or Hulsmans would be who they will send up the road. If they send anyone.
[b]Saxo-Bank[/b] have been disappointing. Look for either Voigt, Klostergaard or Lund to get in the break.
[b]Katusha[/b] will definately have a rep. I would say Klimov or Petrov.
[b]Caisse[/b] may send someone, Lastras rings the bell.
[b]Serramennti[/b] will send someone. I would think due to being chased down when Boasson-Hagen won his first GT stage, Bertolini will be their man. Their better climbers will wait for tomorrow.
[b]Barloworld[/b] might send someone. I would say Bellotti?
[b]Fuji[/b] need a win. Kessiakoff is my suggestion.
[b]AG2R[/b] are always an attacking team. Bonnafond will be my guess.
[b]Columbia[/b] may send someone. Maybe even Boassen-Hagen.
[b]Cervelo[/b] will have a representative. They will give Pauwles a second chance at a stage win due to what they did to him on Sunday.

 

Again, Columbia or another team may decide to chase down a break then launch a counter-attack.

T

herefore, my bets for Stage 18.

 

1.5 units Boassen-Hagen @ $9 - If this is a sprint finish, he will win.

 

Breakaway chances.

 

.5 Vorganov @ $29
.5 Voeckler @ $34
.5 Bertolini @ $34
.2 Pauwels @ $34
.3 Kessiakoff @ $41
.25 Zabriskie @ $41
.25 Lastras @ $41
.2 Fothen @ $51
.25 Petrov @ $67
.25 Klimov @ $67
.2 Bonnafond @ $81
.2 Bellotti @ $81
.1 Klostergaard @ $101
.1 Lund @ $126
.1 Isaichev @ $126
.1 Scarselli @ $151

 

6 units staked.

 

Good luck!

As expected Voeckler made the break. So did Bertolini, Vorgonov and Petrov. So out of 25 riders, I have 4 representatives. Strong ones at that. The break consists of!

 

Popovych, Pate, Bosisio, Scarponi, Masciarelli, Zeits, Cardenas, Lopez Garcia, Deignan, Dean, Visconti, Grabovskyy, Gavazzi, Quinziato, Devenyns, Seeldrayers, Ljungblad, Lövkvist, Siutsou, McCartney, Bak,

 

So Columbia sending a message out so that rules out BH to take the win. With Dean, Gavazzi and Quinziato that can sprint, expect the stronger riders like Bertolini, Lokvist, McCartney, Garcia-Lopez, Visconti to break out within 30km to go.

 

I reckon this stage will be won solo or with 3 - 5 riders battling out the win. Very confident in Bertolini or Voeckler to bring home the bacon. Both are capable of it.

Doing some live betting.

 

4 units Bertolini top 3 @ $5

 

Good luck!

2.5 units Voeckler top 3 @ $5

 

Good luck!

Scarponi won it once again, his 2nd.

 

A few leans for tomorrow's stage, I'll post my final card and the units beside tomorrow morning around 5:30

 

Basso over Sastre @ 1.971 ( 2 sec in front, he wants to be proud and probably hopes for a Podium in Rome.  He needs some time over Pellizotti as well.  He'll stick to Di Luca and Menchov and probably win the stage has well ( @ 8.00 ).  Italian's proud is a big part of the game )

 

Menchov- Di Luca ( Last chance for Di Luca to hope for a pink jersey. He needs over a min to survive the TT. Can he do it...hum difficult to tell but at least 1 sec in front @ 1.725 )

 

Francesco Masciarelli over Lance @ 2.77 ( Yes Armstrong will be there to help Leipheimer, but Masciarelli and Garzelli will be in front for some attacks and a probable stage win )

 

Szmyd over Simoni @ 3.07 ( Which Simoni will show up ? Same question for Szmyd. They were both absent on stage 16 but they shown up on the 17th.  Nice value... )

 

Siutsou over Seeldraeyers @ 1.781 ( The best Columbia Climber to help Rogers for the GC versus Quick Step, it's worth a try. )

 

I might put 2 units at each, we'll see tomorrow

 

 

 

 

Today

 

.3 units Cunego @ $67
.3 units Popovych @ $101
.3 units Rogers @ $126

 

Good luck!

 

One of them wins from the breakaway. All 3 riders should try breakaway's today. Nothing to lose. No threat. All too far down on the GC, including Rogers.

I completly forgot to place my bets I was too tired this morning.

 

I ended up lucky, I would have lost 3 out of my 5 bets.

Throwing 5 units on Di Luca over Stefano Garzelli @ 1.405

 

He needs to win some time for the GC, he'll be going for the win.

Pinotti is in the break 14 seconds in front.

And Voeckler came second. Oh so close.

Pinotti, Wiggins or Zabriskie tomorrow for the TT. Will be raining. Hopefully they get the good conditions early.

Garzelli finished 3rd and Di Luca 12th.

 

Gilbert attacked like a crazy man and won it, Voekler 2nd.

 

Petacchi failed his lead out for Di Luca and Gilbert screwed me up.

 

My 1st bet since a long time and I lost it, -5 units

I know. Voeckler should have attacked Gilbert. He just tried to stay on his wheel.

 

Voeckler should have won that. He played it wrong