HoH's AFL - Round 3

Spreads (2-2)
Fav ML (2-0)
Dog ML (0-0)

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Shocker of a round last round.  Got off to a great start with the Saints, then bombed out with Hawthorn and got absolutely skunked by the shithouse Power. 

This play is going on gut feel more than anything, that, and the fact that this line smells funny.

I am going to dig me into some Pies tonight.  Ottens is Out for the Cats, who were already somewhat banged up to begin with.  Collingwood have a very respectable record against the mighty Cats and will be fired up for this one.  Geelong looks happy enough through two rounds just to do enough to win, letting in a sorry-looking Tigers side enough last round to actually go down by 6 at one point before coming back to win.

Collingwood has enough run and pace, not to mention rucking ability and choking tactics, to stall Geelong into a dingy type of match.  I am tipping the Cats to win this one, but I do not believe they run away with it.  The injuries and dubious Cats' goal-kicking only add to that feeling.  That is why I will be on:

Collingwood +18.5 - Small Play

HOH lots and I mean lots of rumours and speculation on the DT forums about GAblett pulling out of the team at the last minute due to a hamstring niggle. Also some 'other' unspecified changes based on a quote from Bomber Thompson.

Also going in on this one early.

I think books are seriously misreading the Swans this season.  I know I sure did, so I'll take my licks as well.  Tipped to possibly make the 8 this season, the Swans look as good as any side out there right now.  Brisbane is coming off a so-so start to their campaign, squeaking out West Coast, then losing to Carlton.  Brisbane plays their best footy at the Gabba and that is where the clash against the Swans will take place.

I fancy the Swans in this contest because they have continued to play their tough, no-nonsense, win the breakdowns style of football that they are known for, play have also added something quite eye-opening: run!  The Swans were not bashful to take the run to the Hawks last round at ANZ and, to me, that was the most eye-opening and hopeful part of their game, as a Swans supporter.  Brisbane, on the other hand, is a solid, physical outfit, but is slow and prodding.  They have solid goal kicker but find forward ball hard to come by because of the slow build-up of their play.  I fancy the Swans physicality to neutralize any advantage Brisbane might find their and the newly-found run of play by the Swans to deal the damage.

The Swans should come into the Gabba with hearts on fire and not a letdown after beating the Premiers.  Roos has this side fired up and should pull away from Brisbane or keep it close enough down the stretch to make this a winner.

Sydney +13.5 - Small Play

Thanks ecoute.

Only makes the Pies that more tasty tonight.

Cheers and GL.

Sorry for the typos in the Swans write-up.  Should have proofread it.  Ugh.

What round is late enough to gauge Voss' impact this year Miracle? Voss has the same mentality as Matthews, just has a better game plan

Thanks Miracle. 

Voss is a non-factor for me here, although he is definitely better than Lethal was last season......who gave up on his side.

Swans match up very well against this side and have taken them to the woodshed in recent history.  For all the points I mention in my write-up is why Sydney covers, if not wins outright here.  Only advantage Brisbane has is the Gabba and that won't be enough as the Swans play it well enough for an away side.

Increasing my Sydney wager from a small play to a Medium Play.

With you on the Pies HOH...Feel they could actually steal it...But took the points on offer...Best of luck...

Collingwood played well enough except for a nice burst byt he Cats in the 3rd Q which killed the Pies...and our spread.



But that's the way those things go.

Love the Swans plus the points this round.  If this misses, then I have officially entered fade planet.

Its all good HOH...its the law of averages...When I have a strike rate of above 75% on an given round,I lower my bet amount on the next round cause..well...that average thingo....lift it when its below 35%...it works for me...But I know the feeling...just posting the next day can be painful...I will be with you on the swannies..cant help myself.. Cheers

I'm the first to come in here and take my beatings bluephinn.

I have no issues with saying how off I was.  Collingwood was one goal away and Geelong one goal off from us covering.

But that's all it took and I misread it.

Sydney line has now moved to +15.5.  I will lock it in on that number.

Sydney +15.5 - Medium Play

Also adding:

Carlton/Western Bulldogs ML multi @ $1.65 - Small Play

I was there 4 rows back, it wasn't that it was an implosion by the pies... there was another team out on the field as well that has been known to play some good football at times...

Would love to have been there to rub into the Pies supporters

You wouldn't believe it but when the pies ran out onto the ground there was hardly any cheering, in fact as the song was going you couldn't hear anything except for the quiet song... when Geelong ran out there was a loud roar through the stadium.  It was similar in the prelim final two years ago except louder from both sides.

It certainly is a different experience going to games with pies supporters involved, generally a lot more people in the crow who you would describe as from a lower class... bogans, some people taken out of ground by security and so on.  My brother's girlfriend mouthing off to a dickhead pie supporter who was being a moron, nearly got my brother and I into a fight with them and she didn't care a bit haha

Let's sum up my round so far, shall we?



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Only thing saving my ass right now was an unposted, last-minute play on Saints ML.  That was a nice winner as I have been winning on St. Kilda and wanted to fade West Coast after that bogus match last round.

To anyone who doubted me saying Port mailed in the match last round versus West Coast, well, now you have your absolute proof.  Again, if this was the NBA or Euro soccer, I would have said that match last round was rigged.  It's AFL though, so I won't.  A team that runs Port so mercilessly, winning every single centre bounce, etc. then gets drawn-and-quartered against a Saints side not known for scoring in large doses, only further proves how Port laid down from the opening bounce.

I feel sorry for all those on the Dees tonight because of seeing Port play last round.  The books aren't fooled though, starting them off with 32.5 points.  If last round was a true indication of Port, then we should have seen a spread of less than 30 points.

Just heard that Sylvia for the Dees has punched Carr for the Power in the throat.

Oh my....

Dees to get worse for the next 4-6 weeks after the tribunal has its go. 

Kangaroos:

Kicks Per Game

Marks Per Game

Tackles Per Game

Opponent Points Per Game

Marks Per Game Diff.

Points Per Game Diff.

Ah crap....that didn't come out.

Anyway, was trying to show the positive stats for the Roos and those for the Hawks.  Hawks at the bottom of the barrel in just about every statistical category.  Of course, Roos played the Dees and the Hawks ran out against the Cats and Swans, so that is a little harsh.

Roos might be a play here with no midfield being demolished for the Hawks and Clarkson not sounding so confident for his side tonight.

About the midfield play:

"But we'll compete as best we can in that part of the ground and see how we go — there's not much we can do about it."

Clarkson said the team would not fall into the trap of trying to force a win to get its campaign back on track.

"We're looking forward to trying to win," he said. "We're not too pleased with the fact we're 0-2 but we've played two pretty good sides — the Cats are obviously a stellar unit and the Swans are always hard to beat up there."

"We want to try and get a victory but we're realistic to know too that we certainly haven't got our best team out on the paddock at the present time."