Souths results over the season have been horrendous with the exception of playing Brisbane and Melbourne close. As has been said by many many times they have a decent squad, they just cant get it together. Maybe tonight is the night, but i am betting against.
Adelaide seem to be pretending they can make the finals despite a tough schedule. They seem to be a fair way off the top teams, not being able to get within single figures of sydney and melbourne, but handled the weaker west sydney and singaore fairly easily.
In the last game Adelaide handled Souths fairly easily leading by 10, 11 and 20 at the breaks before Souths staged a comeback only to lose by 3. Hopefully Adelaide remember this and play for four quarters and get the win tonight.
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To remove first post, remove entire topic.
YTD: 79-54 +24.4u
Adelaide -1 2u
Souths results over the season have been horrendous with the exception of playing Brisbane and Melbourne close. As has been said by many many times they have a decent squad, they just cant get it together. Maybe tonight is the night, but i am betting against.
Adelaide seem to be pretending they can make the finals despite a tough schedule. They seem to be a fair way off the top teams, not being able to get within single figures of sydney and melbourne, but handled the weaker west sydney and singaore fairly easily.
In the last game Adelaide handled Souths fairly easily leading by 10, 11 and 20 at the breaks before Souths staged a comeback only to lose by 3. Hopefully Adelaide remember this and play for four quarters and get the win tonight.
You said in another thread the sixers haven't been playing at a high tempo? Just thought I'd add my 2 cents as I don;t agree.
Last week they still put up 90 pts from the field (not counting 3's) yes they hit an incredible percent but they still would cruised over the 100 even without the 3's
They've consistently been putting up 120 shots a night at not a bad percentage, therefore IMO should easily see them cruising over 100pts tonight.
While the Dragons have had low scores the last 2 games its been against 2 of the best defenses in the league right now. Taking their horrendous (shooting %) night against the Tigers out of the equation as it was a one off, they too should reach the 100 point mark.
I hope you cash tonight!!! GL
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Thanks for the writeup again Binomial,
You said in another thread the sixers haven't been playing at a high tempo? Just thought I'd add my 2 cents as I don;t agree.
Last week they still put up 90 pts from the field (not counting 3's) yes they hit an incredible percent but they still would cruised over the 100 even without the 3's
They've consistently been putting up 120 shots a night at not a bad percentage, therefore IMO should easily see them cruising over 100pts tonight.
While the Dragons have had low scores the last 2 games its been against 2 of the best defenses in the league right now. Taking their horrendous (shooting %) night against the Tigers out of the equation as it was a one off, they too should reach the 100 point mark.
how i measure tempo and i believe a fair few others do is estimating the number of possessions - how often the ball swaps from one team to the other and back effectively. you can do this using the box score and various formulas based on scoring, rebounding and turnovers etc.
this is far from foolproof. one of those passages where players are fumbling for the ball which get called multiple steals suggests the game was a faster pace than it was.
while it is far from perfect i find it very useful. particularly because you can then calculate points per possession and points conceded per possession and use these for comparison between teams and for forecasting.
Over the season I have adelaide's possessions slightly below the average of all teams, over the last five games slightly above. there number is very consistent although it has been trending up.
Not to sure how you get that they are putting up 120 shots a night. I have them averaging 51 2pt attempts and 29 3PA a game.
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how i measure tempo and i believe a fair few others do is estimating the number of possessions - how often the ball swaps from one team to the other and back effectively. you can do this using the box score and various formulas based on scoring, rebounding and turnovers etc.
this is far from foolproof. one of those passages where players are fumbling for the ball which get called multiple steals suggests the game was a faster pace than it was.
while it is far from perfect i find it very useful. particularly because you can then calculate points per possession and points conceded per possession and use these for comparison between teams and for forecasting.
Over the season I have adelaide's possessions slightly below the average of all teams, over the last five games slightly above. there number is very consistent although it has been trending up.
Not to sure how you get that they are putting up 120 shots a night. I have them averaging 51 2pt attempts and 29 3PA a game.
Based on form I think the line should be closer to six, but there are several factors that pushed me towards taking Melbourne:
- despite losing i was impressed with the way melbourne played against brisbane. the loss should also fire them up
- i read lampley will move into the starting line up at the expense of hoare. i like lampley he looks like a scoring machine. hoare has been down on form or at least shooting poorly so i think this move is likely to lead to an improvement
- i believe dave thomas will play. shouldn't expect too much after such a long lay off, but often players come back with a big game
- cairns have more injury problems with matt smith getting knocked out hitting his head on the court last friday and aaron grabau has a problem with his neck, both are expected to play but are not likely to be at their best
- darnell mee is still out, cairns looked like they may get their act together when he came back into the line up but they have been back to being very inconsistent without him
- since beating brisbane by 22 11 games ago, cairns are 5 and 5 in their last 10 games. they have beaten wollongong, nz with no imports, souths and west sydney twice. they have lost to west sydney, GC by 21, NZ @ home by 20, Sydney by 15 @ home and singapore @ home. while they have beaten up on some of the sides who are struggling to beat anyone, they not beaten or gotten very close to anyone in the top 8 except the no import breakers.
Taking melbourne -8.5 is uncomfortable because they have a history of letting sides back into it. However, while i was previously a bit skeptical of them i was impressed by there performance on saturday and am back on the bandwagon and think they might win easily tonight
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Melbourne -8.5 1u
Melbourne v Cairns under 191.5 1u
Not particularly excited about either of these.
Based on form I think the line should be closer to six, but there are several factors that pushed me towards taking Melbourne:
- despite losing i was impressed with the way melbourne played against brisbane. the loss should also fire them up
- i read lampley will move into the starting line up at the expense of hoare. i like lampley he looks like a scoring machine. hoare has been down on form or at least shooting poorly so i think this move is likely to lead to an improvement
- i believe dave thomas will play. shouldn't expect too much after such a long lay off, but often players come back with a big game
- cairns have more injury problems with matt smith getting knocked out hitting his head on the court last friday and aaron grabau has a problem with his neck, both are expected to play but are not likely to be at their best
- darnell mee is still out, cairns looked like they may get their act together when he came back into the line up but they have been back to being very inconsistent without him
- since beating brisbane by 22 11 games ago, cairns are 5 and 5 in their last 10 games. they have beaten wollongong, nz with no imports, souths and west sydney twice. they have lost to west sydney, GC by 21, NZ @ home by 20, Sydney by 15 @ home and singapore @ home. while they have beaten up on some of the sides who are struggling to beat anyone, they not beaten or gotten very close to anyone in the top 8 except the no import breakers.
Taking melbourne -8.5 is uncomfortable because they have a history of letting sides back into it. However, while i was previously a bit skeptical of them i was impressed by there performance on saturday and am back on the bandwagon and think they might win easily tonight
Yes can't expect too much after such a layoff but he's the differnece between Melbourne being a good side as they have been since he's out, to being a great side.
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DT back???
Yes can't expect too much after such a layoff but he's the differnece between Melbourne being a good side as they have been since he's out, to being a great side.
After looking into the total further, I think the total of 191.5 is right on. I calculate it as 192 but given the Tigers stingy defence of late and now they have possibly their best side for a long time the Taipans total to be less and therefore less than 191.5.
I'm still battling whether its going to be low enough to be worthwhile to make the bet.
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After looking into the total further, I think the total of 191.5 is right on. I calculate it as 192 but given the Tigers stingy defence of late and now they have possibly their best side for a long time the Taipans total to be less and therefore less than 191.5.
I'm still battling whether its going to be low enough to be worthwhile to make the bet.
Not sure if Kavossey Franklin is playing or not. If he isn't I am very happy with them, if he is I would probably only play one unit each. If i work out he is playing i may buy back.
West Sydney v Brisbane over 110 1H 1u
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YTD: 82-55 +28.0u
Townsville -4 3u
Wollongong v Townsville under 200.5 2.5u
Not sure if Kavossey Franklin is playing or not. If he isn't I am very happy with them, if he is I would probably only play one unit each. If i work out he is playing i may buy back.
No major damage to the balance sheet although my confidence is a little dented after last night. Partly because it seems bookmakers have access to better info, partly because i loaded up on a team that disgraced themselves. Anyway I will continue.
Sydney -13 1u
Sydney v NZ over 202.5 1u
Not to concerned about the layoff for Sydney because as usual Goorgian is treating the game as more important than life or death and has been focusing on this:
Melbourne are on the rise as i see it, but it is a tough ask to play thursday night and then play in Perth on Saturday. As far as I can tell Perth are at full strength, although finding out who is playing is about as easy as ..... My calculations suggest Perth should be favoured by a point or two.
Still thinking about the Gold Coast game. Brisbane killed them on the boards last time and this game they go in without Melmeth. Apart from this I am leaning to GC.
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YTD: 84-56 +27.2u
No major damage to the balance sheet although my confidence is a little dented after last night. Partly because it seems bookmakers have access to better info, partly because i loaded up on a team that disgraced themselves. Anyway I will continue.
Sydney -13 1u
Sydney v NZ over 202.5 1u
Not to concerned about the layoff for Sydney because as usual Goorgian is treating the game as more important than life or death and has been focusing on this:
Melbourne are on the rise as i see it, but it is a tough ask to play thursday night and then play in Perth on Saturday. As far as I can tell Perth are at full strength, although finding out who is playing is about as easy as ..... My calculations suggest Perth should be favoured by a point or two.
Still thinking about the Gold Coast game. Brisbane killed them on the boards last time and this game they go in without Melmeth. Apart from this I am leaning to GC.
First off the bat tha sydney game. They pointspread when the played in NZ was -6 and they won by 15. I hate laying numbers this high (-13) but I'm going to have to. I'll be laying off the total.
As for the Melbourne game, even though 187.5 is low I can't see them reaching 175 at best. The cats defense is second to none in their last five and Melbourne can be just as stingy. I love this play of under 187.5.
In the other game of the Queensland derby, while I havn'e made up my mind completely I'm surprised the line is -+9. Yes I think the bullets will start to hit full power as the season nears the payoffs but I've been impressed by the blaze and think -9 is too much.
Love your writeups as always. I hope you cash!!!
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hi Binomial,
First off the bat tha sydney game. They pointspread when the played in NZ was -6 and they won by 15. I hate laying numbers this high (-13) but I'm going to have to. I'll be laying off the total.
As for the Melbourne game, even though 187.5 is low I can't see them reaching 175 at best. The cats defense is second to none in their last five and Melbourne can be just as stingy. I love this play of under 187.5.
In the other game of the Queensland derby, while I havn'e made up my mind completely I'm surprised the line is -+9. Yes I think the bullets will start to hit full power as the season nears the payoffs but I've been impressed by the blaze and think -9 is too much.
Probably going to stay off GC, although I am still undecided.
Another thing that bothers me about them is that in their last nine games they have only played two top 8 teams and lost both of those. They haven't played that many games against the top 8 all season and only have one win over cairns.
This is the start of a hellsih five game road stretch for them which may show if they are any good.
I am starting to think the top three are miles in front, with Perth the other team likely to make the semis.
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thanks tozer.
Probably going to stay off GC, although I am still undecided.
Another thing that bothers me about them is that in their last nine games they have only played two top 8 teams and lost both of those. They haven't played that many games against the top 8 all season and only have one win over cairns.
This is the start of a hellsih five game road stretch for them which may show if they are any good.
I am starting to think the top three are miles in front, with Perth the other team likely to make the semis.
tozer i am not trying to put you on or off anthing, just throwing ideas around.
i was arguing against your over the other night that won easily.
even though they haven't beaten any top teams 9 points is a pretty big cushion. i cant come up with a feeling for what the impact of back to back will be for brisbane. they had one earlier where they played an undermanned townsville in townsville and won by 29. i am sort of thinking that the anger over losing will counter the back to back making the line is about right for mine.
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tozer i am not trying to put you on or off anthing, just throwing ideas around.
i was arguing against your over the other night that won easily.
even though they haven't beaten any top teams 9 points is a pretty big cushion. i cant come up with a feeling for what the impact of back to back will be for brisbane. they had one earlier where they played an undermanned townsville in townsville and won by 29. i am sort of thinking that the anger over losing will counter the back to back making the line is about right for mine.
tozer i am not trying to put you on or off anthing, just throwing ideas around.
i was arguing against your over the other night that won easily.
even though they haven't beaten any top teams 9 points is a pretty big cushion. i cant come up with a feeling for what the impact of back to back will be for brisbane. they had one earlier where they played an undermanned townsville in townsville and won by 29. i am sort of thinking that the anger over losing will counter the back to back making the line is about right for mine.
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tozer i am not trying to put you on or off anthing, just throwing ideas around.
i was arguing against your over the other night that won easily.
even though they haven't beaten any top teams 9 points is a pretty big cushion. i cant come up with a feeling for what the impact of back to back will be for brisbane. they had one earlier where they played an undermanned townsville in townsville and won by 29. i am sort of thinking that the anger over losing will counter the back to back making the line is about right for mine.
I believed Joey Wright played a his starters a little too cautious (mins wise) wanting to get out of West Sydney by doing just enough to win and keeping the players fresh for tonight but the shots didn't fall for them late and pigs hung around & snatched the W. Looking at the minutes played only CJ had 44mins, rest of the team only avg 30mins or less...hence Bullets should still be fresh for tonight & that loss could fired them up for a strong performance tonight.
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I believed Joey Wright played a his starters a little too cautious (mins wise) wanting to get out of West Sydney by doing just enough to win and keeping the players fresh for tonight but the shots didn't fall for them late and pigs hung around & snatched the W. Looking at the minutes played only CJ had 44mins, rest of the team only avg 30mins or less...hence Bullets should still be fresh for tonight & that loss could fired them up for a strong performance tonight.
if GC lose all 5 road games they will be looking over their shoulder for the mighty hawks who are coming for their playoff spot, in their dreams at least:
if GC lose all 5 road games they will be looking over their shoulder for the mighty hawks who are coming for their playoff spot, in their dreams at least:
if GC lose all 5 road games they will be looking over their shoulder for the mighty hawks who are coming for their playoff spot, in their dreams at least:
Goto match report & find box score at the top of the page
Grab the under 102.5 2H kings at bii hurleys dude
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Quote Originally Posted by binomial:
where do you find minutes played dplay?
if GC lose all 5 road games they will be looking over their shoulder for the mighty hawks who are coming for their playoff spot, in their dreams at least:
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