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Why are the Dogs laying only 4.5 to the Dockers?

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Posted: #51
Johnson marked at semi-tough angle for the Dogs.
 
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Posted: #52
Doggies bringing this baby home....
 
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Posted: #53
POST!  DAMN!  Good guys by 2.  I need three more points!


 
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Posted: #54
Three minutes to play........
 
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Posted: #55
DOGS LINING UP FROM 40 OUT!!!!!!!!

PLEASE!!!!!!!!
 
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Posted: #56
Carn' the Dogs ........
 
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Posted: #57
Johnson missed again.  Need two more points.

Jeez..........
 
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Posted: #58
Q4 28:00 - B.Johnson misses it uncharacteristically
 
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Posted: #59
I can feel the moose.
 
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Posted: #60
what do you have HOH?!
 
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Posted: #61
DAMN!

114-111 FT.



That is why that was a small play.

Johnson had two shots on goal at the end and missed both.  Either one goes in and I'm cheering.

Oh well.

Nice comeback by the Doggies.  A few minutes earlier and I am certain they would have covered.
 
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Posted: #62
Had -4.5, small play.

Book didn't offer H2H or I would have taken that.  Don't like to take lines under a single goal because things like this happen, but that was not on offer.  Small price to pay for their silly willy lines.
 
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Posted: #63
Dogs with another houdini act  
 
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Posted: #64
DOGGIES bring in the dough baby
Now let's get Thomas B, Cobber!  
Ripper of a day for me.
 
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Posted: #65
Had -4.5, small play.

Book didn't offer H2H or I would have taken that.  Don't like to take lines under a single goal because things like this happen, but that was not on offer.  Small price to pay for their silly willy lines.
 
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Posted: #66
Unlucky HoH, this is clearly one of the sharpest lines the books have set all season to date
 
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Posted: #67
Arghhh that's really stiff luck HOH
 
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Posted: #68
Well, the errors by Freo proved decisive, as marked in my thread............but it didn't do quite enough for me.

3-1 on the round, with my top three wagers hitting.  I'll take it.
 
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Posted: #69
Quote Originally Posted by rod_steel:

Unlucky HoH, this is clearly one of the sharpest lines the books have set all season to date


Yes it was.  Johnson's two shots at the end could have done it and the Doggies had it marked right outside the 50 circle with a minute to go, but chose to work the ball backwards instead of going for goal........which I am sure they would have gotten.

 
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Posted: #70
Didn't watch the game but it sounded great. Dogs still in it.

I think I heard on the commentary a weekend or two ago that this was the first time in about 50 years that the top 3 teams had been unbeaten up to round 7. Now round 8.

 
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Posted: #71
Rod-
 
I know it's way too late, and like the true dipshit dumbass asshole that I am, I was asleep at the wheel and missed getting down on Freo by about 15 seconds.
 
And of course, they get inside by a hook.  Why?  'Cause pro sports are rigged more times than people realize.
 
Last evening was just another classic trap that got sprung on the public by people in cahoots fixing spreads......no doubt about it.
 
Hope all is good.
 
Cheers
 
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Posted: #72
Quote Originally Posted by claycourtlesson:

Rod-
 
I know it's way too late, and like the true dipshit dumbass asshole that I am, I was asleep at the wheel and missed getting down on Freo by about 15 seconds.
 
And of course, they get inside by a hook.  Why?  'Cause pro sports are rigged more times than people realize.
 
Last evening was just another classic trap that got sprung on the public by people in cahoots fixing spreads......no doubt about it.
 
Hope all is good.
 
Cheers


Clay, this match would have been covered by the Dogs 7, 8, or 9 times out of 10.  The Dockers were out of gas around the midway mark of the 4th Term.  Johnno had two marks, one from 30m and another from 40m out, at the end of the match to goal.  He hits the post (!!!) on one and misses the other as well.  He would normally hit one of those.  Either one goes through and the Doggies cover.  At the midway point of the 4th, I would bet over and over again on the Dogs in that spot.  Just unlucky and nowhere near a fix.  Freo covers by 1.5.

A lot of sharp spread this weekend due to the week off.  Books had way too much time on their hands to work.  I tipped the Saints, laid off, but tipped them and would have won by 0.5 points!  Wow!  I punted Geelong earlier in the round and they covered by 1.5!  So I am not bitter about the Doggies at all, no suspicious about these all-of-a-sudden sharp lines.  Too much time for the books to work.  I highly doubt we will see anything of the nature this upcoming round and as we move further in to the middle fo the season.
 
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Posted: #73
probably see the highest spread of the year this week, maybe second highest.
Hawks v Dees
 
I was impressed by the Dees this week even though they got belted again. Miller has steadied them a little but just their ball work through the ground and general skill level has gone up a few of knotches.
 
Hard to see how the hawks aren't going to win by over 10 goals.
 
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Posted: #74
Head-
 
Appreciate the input.  "Been there, done that, got the t-shirt" when it comes to "what should've" or "what could've."
 
To me, the Freo line was overly short, and this surely isn't the first or last time this comp where "strange magic" seems to fulfill the prophecy of the bookmaker.
 
I do believe that NFL and AFL are the two shadiest pro sports lines out there, and tipping the trap line loses a hell of a lot more than it wins......in spite of "what should've happened."
 
Cheers
 
 
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Posted: #75
The Hawthorn line this week will be off the charts.  Covering it or not will come down to whether they want to or not......a fix is also part of the equation.
 
This is the type of line I'd avoid hitting hard unless I had access to inside info.
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