Posted:
#1
After analyzing both teams, I think Spain is a big favorite here. Let's argue it.
Spain is playing a sublime tournament. They have won every game because of very large points differences:
vs Montenegro (99-60) -> +39
R.Checa (56-93) -> +37
vs Romania (91 - 50) -> +39
@ Croatia (73 - 79) -> +6
vs Hungary (64 - 87) -> +23
Only Croatia stood up. Because they know Spain, they have players with NBA experience, and historically they have always been there. Agree. But in the rest of games, Spain won with overwhelming superiority.
Turkey. They play at home, and from 5 games, they lost 3 of them in the Group Stage:
vs Russia (73 - 76) -> - 3
@ G. Britain (70-84) -> +14
@ Serbia (80-74) -> -6
vs Belgium (78 - 65) -> +13
Latvia (89-79) -> -10
Of all its rivals, the most similar to Spain by the level of play is Latvia. I have analyzed that encounter and:
Latvia recorded 63% in T2 / 39.3% in T3, and 84.6% in Free Throws. They generated 28 assists
Turkey recorded 52.9% in T2 / 37.5 in t3 and 64% in free throws. They generated 11 assists.
And is that Turkey is going to have problems in 2 facets: rebounds and assists.
Because in rebounds they only capture 26.8 pp, and his leader in this section is a forward: Cedi Osman with 5.2 pp. Spain captures 47.0 pp, with Pau Gasol (8.8), Willy Hernangómez (8.6) Marc Gasól (7.2) and Juancho Hernangómez (7.0) as leading leaders.
In assists, Turkey's top leader returns to be Cedi Osman, with 4.0 pp, and his team only generates 14.0 pp by 25.0 from Spain. Serguio Rodríguez is top 3 in the tournament (6.4 pp) followed by Ricky Rubio (4.4)
If a team like Latvia, inferior above all defensively to Spain, is able to win Turkey in their field by 10 points of difference, Spain can do it by 15 minimum, and even more.
Because Spain is a very well oiled set, with too much quality, in the initial 5 and the bench. That in Turkey a forward is the leader in 2 such important categories, it indicates to me clearly that that equipment is very limited.
In the game against Latvia I saw how his indoor game had too many spaces. These spaces can be used by Sergio Rodríguez and Ricky Rubio to penetrate or attend. And if Porzingis made them 22 points, the brothers Gasol and Willy think they will enjoy.
To add that Spain already won Turkey in the Euro 2015, 77 - 105. Spain had a similar set, without Rubio or Marc Gasol, but with Llull and Rudy Fernandez. Turkey had Cedi Osman (only scored 9 points) and most of those who are now, apart from the absent Nba Ersan Ilyasova.
The bad thing about this game: the hostile environment and dubious arbitration decisions that could affect the Spanish team. I count on it, and I still think that Spain has an inside game that is unstoppable right now, let alone the Turkish side
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