ANOTHER THEORY

Ok first I am not 1-1, I am 1-0, I gave the Jets as the winner, I then stated that either SD or NO would cover and I said possibly both would cover. But if you read I also stated on the SD or NO I did not want to pick this too early.Read my posts again before you take me out of context, I gave the Jets as the definate winner. The Jets won, and I will post the Monday night winner NEW ORLEANS

 

Can you give me a good reason why you pick N.O. ? I think GB is much more balance team here.

I understand Paul, The public in general thinks GB is the better team here. If I were handicaping I would think the same, Like I said in a previous post sometimes you have got to forget what you know about teams capability on the field..Let me give you my best attempt at an explanation..This is one of the games the stars line up to fix the game, first the last three weeks the Home team and monday night favorite have lost, combine that with the fact that the public won several games on Sunday including the pick I gave in the NYJ, and also don't forget that Sunday night and Monday night games are single games, Sunday day games have money spread out over 14 games, Sunday Night and Monday night games have heavier action. Now a little deeper explanation is that Sunday nights dog winner Indianapolis Colts had the public heavy on them. The public is also heavy on GB, if history repeats itself for the last nine years the refs will tackle GB if necessary to keep them out of the endzone. Again, nothing is 100% but I can only use what history has taught me along with what I have learned from refs over the years through film.

I have terms for certain games, you have the GIVE AWAY GAME, example was the TN versus NYJ on Sunday people have been riding against Tn for weeks now and finally the public gets paid some of their loses back. And I mentioned this before, TN was 10-0 coming into this game with a 4 game lead in the division. History shows that teams almost stop covering completely if they build a 4 game lead in division (not a coincidence). Next, I live in TN and you almost wouldn't know Tn was 10-0 unless you watch football, this week everyone knew TN was 10-0 because the media hype was on....not to mention the ESPN promo of TN this week. Combine all that and you havew a jets victory for sure. Next game I call the BAIT AND SWITCH this happens when you look at a line an go wow I can't believe the Blank team is only giving 2 points to the blank (sorry) team. Let me give an example I think it was the 1998 Auburn Tigers basketball team was 26-1, all year long they were 10+ point favorite to everyone they played. In their 28th game they were scheduled to play an Arkansas team that was barely over 500 winning percentage, Auburn -3 to Arkansas, I knew the pick was Arkansas because the line looked too good to be true. Needless to say Arkansas won on a horribly officiated game...Well I say horribly officiated unless you were a razorback fan or bettor on the Razorbacks.

Of all the posts I have read, I must say I am in shock, I have heard people open minded to calling me a nut but not one person has asked the question I get the most. Why do I not bet if I am so good? Interesting that I have not been asked that question. I do not bet but I have made friends alot of money, The most I have ever saw won from one of my picks was the Superbowl GB Packers vs Denver Broncos, GB was favored by 13.5. I told my buddy to take the Broncos with the points and I thought Denver would win outright. He won 20k on that game. He flew to vegas to bet on it, after the game he called me from vegas, needless to say he was happy. I had no idea he was betting so large and to this day I have never gave him another pick, to this day he still calls wanting a game. I will not give him another pick because I do not want to be responsible for that kind of money won or lost.

Now I have a question to the guy who threatning to have me banned. What the hell is a tout? And is it not legal to post and email or phone #? I wouldn't post it anyway but just curious why this girlyman was getting his panties all bent out of shape over my posts.

Jeff,

 

you are 100% dead on.  it very much saddens me to say this, but ALL sports are fixed.  not in general, but like you said, AGAINST THE POINTSPREAD/OVER/UNDER.  anytime there is a large portion of money or percentage of wagers on one team or one over/under, and a line is too good to be true,  it loses at about an 85% rate.  this is how las vegas collects money, NOT on the 10% vig,  the juice is just a coverup.  if vegas ALLOWED for these giant margins of money to be won on obvious teams who are better than their opponent, they would have shut this business down about a century ago.  i am not saying that every single game or total is fixed, only in instances that it is either "too good to be true" or "a large portion of money is being wagered on one side". 

 

the perfect example and most recent example, and i cannot believe how OBVIOUS this was,  was pittsburgh vs. san diego last week.  with under 30 seconds to go in the game, and the pittsburgh steelers ahead 11-10, san diego had the football on their own 20 something yard line and wanted to try and advance the footbal on several laterals after a short philip rivers pass.  during one of these laterals, troy polamalu made an unexpected lunge for the football and knocked the ball out of the air in the opposite direction only to scoop the football and advance the football 20 yards for a touchdown.

 

without any challenge flag being thrown, or any coach screaming, as a matter of fact both coaches were actually on their ways out to the middle of the field for the post-game handshake,  the referees immediately sent them both back to their sidelines with all of the players so they could review the play. 

 

the first thing, is WHO instructed these referees to go back and even look at this play in instant replay,  there was no challenge flag thrown,  it did not affect the outcome of the game,  the game was over.

 

however this DID AFFECT THE POINTSPREAD!!!   pittsburgh was between a 4-5.5 point favorite in this matchup all week since it had opened, and was being wagered on more than any game this week, with about 80% of the money pouring in on pittsburgh (-5).  if this touchdown were to have stood,  this would have cost las vegas an INSANE amount of money, to the extent of about 10 billion dollars. 

 

second,  after further review of the play,  the referees OVERTURNED the play, citing the first lateral was an illegal forward lateral.  if you have seen this play at all, it so so obvious to be a false statement as the chargers wide receiver threw the ball cross-field about 5-7 yards behind him!  i have also looked at every other lateral during the play and none were even close to being forward laterals.   now i have heard people make the statement that "a lateral cannot be advanced by the defense in the event of a fumble".  WRONG.  a backwards lateral is simply a fumble,   so if it hits the ground, it is a live football and can be advanced by both teams.  now,  in the case that an offense fumbles the football forward on purpose and their OWN TEAM recovers it, it cannot be advanced for any yardage it is dead on recovery.  this was not a factor in the play at the end of the game,  and that football was a perfectly live football that should've been able to be advanced for a TD. 

 

of all this,  the most disturbing, and single most blatant factor that this game was fixed,  is that no one coach, player, owner, fan, beer guy, anyone could've cared less about this play, as the game was not affected by it, and they all were not concerned 1% about the play that had just occured.  however,  the referees still found it neccessary to review this play in the first place?  there is no other explanation for this, except for that the referees knew that if any interception or fumble recovery was returned,  las vegas would stand to lose billions of dollars,  and IMMEDIATELY went and reviewed the play when it occured.  they took quite a long time to review this play,  and i am 100% convinced that after looking at the play,  they couldn't come up with a solution to overturn the play and "fix"  the outcome of the game that they had been payed to assure.  so they came up with the closest thing to an excuse in that first lateral that the chargers ball carrier threw.  came out, explained it to the fans/coaches,  and ran off the field as fast as they could,  never to be heard from again.

 

now,  even the referees and everyone that knew the line on this game,  also knew that something fishy had just occured.  THE ANNOUNCER OF THE GAME EVEN SAID AND I QUOTE,  "WELL THERE AALLOOOTTT OF PEOPLE THAT ARE HAPPY THE SCORE OF THE GAME IS 11-10 HERE".

 

within hours after the game, the head of officiating for the NFL even came out and stated, "we made a mistake".  because he knew that this looked fishy and wanted to somewhat make up for it by giving an apology that really didn't do anything at all other than take the heat and obviousness off of his officials.

 

another factor that makes me suspicous of this game being fixed,  is that the next day, monday,  every single talk show, espn show, and every other sports media outlet, discussed the issue, and it became a very heated debate.  normally,  a call like this would linger for a while.  however,   after initially discussing this topic,  by nightfall, not a single person had mentioned it again.  why is this important?  i guaruntee you las vegas placed a call to ESPN, the NFL, and every other big media NFL outlet, and told them to keep their mouths shut.   and what happened?  silence.

 

now there are plenty of other examples of fixes out there that happen every week.  but this is just the most obvious and most recent one that i have ever seen.  i am a younger man in my early 20s and i have only been betting sports for a few years maybe 5,  so i dont have alot of evidence or bitterness about "shady" occurrances that have lost me and the public alot of money to this point,  but after tim donaghy and that whole scandal,  obviously my radar went right up.

 

sometimes,  when things are too good to be true....

 

they are. 

 

im sorry folks,  but if you want to be naive, go ahead. and if you still make money wagering sports like i do,  then lord knows, please continue to do so...

 

just dont be suprised when your lock of the week chokes and doesnt show up at all, or is robbed by an awful call next week,

because i hate to say it,  it is not a coincidence...

 

you had me at hello. this was your first sentence.

 

after this, it would have been better for all of us, if you would have just shut the fuck up and kept your mouth closed

 

i agree with JB2275, you are a fucking clown and just like to hear yourself talk. nothing you said had any substance or made sense.

 

long paragraphs full of complete bullshit conspiracy theories....

its his 4th alias in the same thread

Gavin......what gambler you play on TV?  can I get in on some side action that you boys always seem to have out there in vegas??

I do agree with your writeups somewhat, not going to divulge much into this but since SD was a turd I am allllll over the saints but the public doesnt seem to bei LIKEY

 

BOL on the high stake tables "jeff"....wouldnt that be sweet if you were a poker pro or sumthin

I am really amazed at how ignorant some people can be. It is no wonder this country elected Hussein Obama as President. Nobody bothers to get the full fucking picture of anything. THIS MESSAGE IS TO LETSGOHORNS specifically. You accuse me of signing in under the wrong handle? I was merely responding to a guy name PaulWynn, I have one handle as you call it and it is JeffSmith70. I hope you don't think I have stole your name since I used it in this post responding to how ignorant you are.

OK the above message is also for buckubad, How can you think I have used 4 alias names in the same thread??? Please give me the names of the alias's you think I am using. Next, why would I use different alias names? Where is the logic, what would I gain. Use you head you Morons. Now this meesage is directly to LETSGOHORNS AND BUCKUBAD unless both of you think the names are my alias because i mention them in this post. If that be the case it means you don't exist, go sit in a corner and think about that until you need medication. LOL

Jeffsmith70 I too have been doing research on games over the last 7 NFL seasons and it wasn't until last year I found similar patterns in other sports as well.  I have a million thoughts running through my mind right now its hard to pick just one and write about it in a paragraph post, but I have found that and this is going to sound stupid but I think you will understand it,  The games played by the players are not fixed but the outcome of a game already decided, is!

 

 

Real quick example...You are from Tenn?  Memphis and Chatanooga last Thursday.  Memphis clearly the better team favored by 21.5 should have won by 30 if they just played the way they always play.  Inside buckets.  But in the game they took 23 3's.  This is a team that shoots 50% from inside the arc!  Who told them to shoot so many threes?

 

The next day Chatanooga lost by 33 to USC.  Side note USC only shot 40% in that game.

I like the discussion, continue please.

 

If I was going to alter the outcome of a game, I wouldnt buy off players or refs, 

 

I would replace the coach with Norv Turner. 

 

 

 

Rick3117

 

So you all can tell us what games were fixed after they are played? That does nothing for me. Why don't you put your fixed theory to work and pick us some winners for Thursday NFL?