Jeff,
you are 100% dead on. it very much saddens me to say this, but ALL sports are fixed. not in general, but like you said, AGAINST THE POINTSPREAD/OVER/UNDER. anytime there is a large portion of money or percentage of wagers on one team or one over/under, and a line is too good to be true, it loses at about an 85% rate. this is how las vegas collects money, NOT on the 10% vig, the juice is just a coverup. if vegas ALLOWED for these giant margins of money to be won on obvious teams who are better than their opponent, they would have shut this business down about a century ago. i am not saying that every single game or total is fixed, only in instances that it is either "too good to be true" or "a large portion of money is being wagered on one side".
the perfect example and most recent example, and i cannot believe how OBVIOUS this was, was pittsburgh vs. san diego last week. with under 30 seconds to go in the game, and the pittsburgh steelers ahead 11-10, san diego had the football on their own 20 something yard line and wanted to try and advance the footbal on several laterals after a short philip rivers pass. during one of these laterals, troy polamalu made an unexpected lunge for the football and knocked the ball out of the air in the opposite direction only to scoop the football and advance the football 20 yards for a touchdown.
without any challenge flag being thrown, or any coach screaming, as a matter of fact both coaches were actually on their ways out to the middle of the field for the post-game handshake, the referees immediately sent them both back to their sidelines with all of the players so they could review the play.
the first thing, is WHO instructed these referees to go back and even look at this play in instant replay, there was no challenge flag thrown, it did not affect the outcome of the game, the game was over.
however this DID AFFECT THE POINTSPREAD!!! pittsburgh was between a 4-5.5 point favorite in this matchup all week since it had opened, and was being wagered on more than any game this week, with about 80% of the money pouring in on pittsburgh (-5). if this touchdown were to have stood, this would have cost las vegas an INSANE amount of money, to the extent of about 10 billion dollars.
second, after further review of the play, the referees OVERTURNED the play, citing the first lateral was an illegal forward lateral. if you have seen this play at all, it so so obvious to be a false statement as the chargers wide receiver threw the ball cross-field about 5-7 yards behind him! i have also looked at every other lateral during the play and none were even close to being forward laterals. now i have heard people make the statement that "a lateral cannot be advanced by the defense in the event of a fumble". WRONG. a backwards lateral is simply a fumble, so if it hits the ground, it is a live football and can be advanced by both teams. now, in the case that an offense fumbles the football forward on purpose and their OWN TEAM recovers it, it cannot be advanced for any yardage it is dead on recovery. this was not a factor in the play at the end of the game, and that football was a perfectly live football that should've been able to be advanced for a TD.
of all this, the most disturbing, and single most blatant factor that this game was fixed, is that no one coach, player, owner, fan, beer guy, anyone could've cared less about this play, as the game was not affected by it, and they all were not concerned 1% about the play that had just occured. however, the referees still found it neccessary to review this play in the first place? there is no other explanation for this, except for that the referees knew that if any interception or fumble recovery was returned, las vegas would stand to lose billions of dollars, and IMMEDIATELY went and reviewed the play when it occured. they took quite a long time to review this play, and i am 100% convinced that after looking at the play, they couldn't come up with a solution to overturn the play and "fix" the outcome of the game that they had been payed to assure. so they came up with the closest thing to an excuse in that first lateral that the chargers ball carrier threw. came out, explained it to the fans/coaches, and ran off the field as fast as they could, never to be heard from again.
now, even the referees and everyone that knew the line on this game, also knew that something fishy had just occured. THE ANNOUNCER OF THE GAME EVEN SAID AND I QUOTE, "WELL THERE AALLOOOTTT OF PEOPLE THAT ARE HAPPY THE SCORE OF THE GAME IS 11-10 HERE".
within hours after the game, the head of officiating for the NFL even came out and stated, "we made a mistake". because he knew that this looked fishy and wanted to somewhat make up for it by giving an apology that really didn't do anything at all other than take the heat and obviousness off of his officials.
another factor that makes me suspicous of this game being fixed, is that the next day, monday, every single talk show, espn show, and every other sports media outlet, discussed the issue, and it became a very heated debate. normally, a call like this would linger for a while. however, after initially discussing this topic, by nightfall, not a single person had mentioned it again. why is this important? i guaruntee you las vegas placed a call to ESPN, the NFL, and every other big media NFL outlet, and told them to keep their mouths shut. and what happened? silence.
now there are plenty of other examples of fixes out there that happen every week. but this is just the most obvious and most recent one that i have ever seen. i am a younger man in my early 20s and i have only been betting sports for a few years maybe 5, so i dont have alot of evidence or bitterness about "shady" occurrances that have lost me and the public alot of money to this point, but after tim donaghy and that whole scandal, obviously my radar went right up.
sometimes, when things are too good to be true....
they are.
im sorry folks, but if you want to be naive, go ahead. and if you still make money wagering sports like i do, then lord knows, please continue to do so...
just dont be suprised when your lock of the week chokes and doesnt show up at all, or is robbed by an awful call next week,
because i hate to say it, it is not a coincidence...
jeffsmith's MEDIA DARLING"S system
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