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Baseball Betting Philosophies and Strategies
Several people asked me by email about my betting strategies and I thought I would take the time to post my response here. While I do not plan on posting much here in the PB, I thought some people might be interested.
WHY BETTING UNDERDOGS IN BASEBALL IS DIFFERENT FROM ANY OTHER SPORT.
There are several different approaches and strategies to handicapping baseball, but the most fundamental and obvious starting point is one that is taken completely for granted. Baseball is quite unique when it comes to betting because the gaps between the best and worst teams are far closer than in any other sport. Let's look at the other major betting sports.
In the NFL, the New England Patriots were 16-0 winning 100% of their games. The worst 3 teams in the NFL this past season were 3-13 winning just 18.8% of their games.
In the NBA this season, Boston is currently 54-13 winning 80.6% of their games and Detroit is 49-19 winning 72.1% of their games. The worst teams in the NBA are Miami winning 17.9%, and Seattle at 23.5%.
In NCAA Basketball this season, Memphis compiled a 33-1 record winning at an amazing 97.1% while North Carolina is 32-2 winning at 94.1%. The worst teams in the country were Rice at 3-27 winning 10% of their games, Sacramento State at 4-24 (14.3%) and Oregon State at 6-25 (19.4%).
In NCAA Football, Kansas and Hawaii both compiled records of 12-1 winning 92.3% while five Division 1 teams ended their seasons at 1-11 (8.3%).
Meanwhile, the 2007 baseball season was not that much different than any other baseball season.
The Boston Red Sox and Cleveland Indians tied for the best record in the majors at 96-66 (59.3%). The two worst teams in the majors were the Tampa Bay Rays at 66-96 (40.7%) and the Pittsburgh Pirates at 68-94 (42%). These records are nowhere close to the best and worst records of any other major betting sport.
So there you have it:
Sport Best Worst
NFL 100% 18.8%
NBA 80% 16.9%
NCAAB 97% 10%
NCAAF 95% 8.3%
MLB 59.3% 40.7%
While it seems like an obvious point, it is often overlooked that the worst team in baseball still wins at a percentage well in excess of at least double the worst team in any sport. Taking it a step further, based on last season's numbers, the worst team in baseball won slightly more than 2 out of every 5 games, while the best team in baseball won slightly less than 3 out of every 5 games. Let's face it, in NCAAB, if you put Memphis up against Rice 100 times this season, Memphis would easily win 90% of the time and probably more. If the Patriots played the Dolphins 10 times, they'd easily win 9 on average. It's nothing like that in baseball.
In 2007, the Pittsburgh Pirates (the team with the worst record in the NL at 42%) beat the Arizona Diamondbacks (the best record in the NL) 4 out of 9 times (44.4%). Tampa Bay with the worst record in the AL was 8-10 (44.4%) against the New York Yankees who had the 3rd best record in baseball. In both of these situations, as long as the Pirates and Rays were an average of +125 in those winning games (which I assure you they were) they showed a profit against their mightier foe.
If you want a more compelling argument, the Florida Marlins with the 2nd worst record in the NL swept the Cubs who won the Central Division 6 games to zero.
The point can also be highlighted by looking at pitchers. Hardly anyone could tell me who the most profitable pitcher in baseball was last season. It was Aaron Harang at +13 units. Compare that to probably the best pitcher in the MLB, Johan Santana who was -11.1 units. The average bettor certainly feels more secure backing Johan Santana but if you bet $100 on every Aaron Harang start you would have won $1,300 last year and if you bet $100 on every Johan Santana start last season you would have lost $1,110; a $2,410 difference.
To put things into perspective, try and think about the biggest one game baseball mismatch of the season. My guess is last season it was close to -400 maybe in a game like Johan Santana at home against Edwin Jackson. How big of a mismatch is it really? We see some really big mismatches in other sports. In the first round of the NCAA tournament this week, UCLA is a 32-33 point favorite over Mississippi Valley State. Now that's a mismatch. It's such a huge mismatch, you probably can't even find a moneyline anywhere on the game. The highest moneyline I see posted is Kansas versus Texas Arlington where Kansas is -7000. So is the biggest mismatch of the season in baseball really that much of a mismatch when you compare it to other sports? To put things into perspective, the biggest baseball mismatch of the season is the equivalent of the NCAA tournament game in Round 1 of Xavier-Georgia where Xavier is an 8-8.5 point favorite. Georgia's victory Sunday over Arkansas in the SEC Championship game as a 9.5 point dog was far greater than any upset we will see in baseball this season.
To sum it up, too many baseball bettors shy away from dogs like they can't win when it is clear that any given underdog can beat any favorite on any given day at a rate unlike every other sport. Until people get comfortable in baseball playing underdogs on a regular basis and seeking out value, there is no chance to win betting baseball in the long run.
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- Bazooka Joe Blanton has gone from my fade list to buy list in less than 3 weeks. He has really turned things around and in his last 5 starts tossing 34 innings and allowing 29 hits, 9 tuns, 1 home run and a 25:3 K:BB ratio. Last outing against the Angels on the road was a gem as after allowing 2 first inning runs he followed with 7 scoreless innings. He had a lot of movement on his pitches and was hitting his spots. Meanwhile, Horacio Ramirez might be 8-5 this season but the numbers are not impressive. In his last 9 starts he has thrown 49 innings and allowed 69 hits, 42 runs, 8 home runs and had a 24:21 K:BB ratio. The Mariners have really begun to free fall and even after yesterday's football like 14-7 win, they are 2-13 in their last 15 games. Their bullpen, which has been their strong point most of the season, has abandoned them and we should see the pen early today.
wait until Helmut gets here. 
chaos in the box
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