All Forums | Penalty Box

Bodio's MLB Thur 10/06 (Playoffs)

...
Participants:
Search model icon
Views: 22503
Posts: 209
 
Prospect
Participation Meter
Joined: Oct, 2010
Posts: 189
Posted: #51
conflicting issues being the yankees fan..
 
Banned
Participation Meter
Joined: Apr, 2009
Posts: 7370
Posted: #52
Quote Originally Posted by LOSVEGAS514:

BODIO IM WITH KEYSER NEVER BET 1ST 5 B4 THIS MEANS AT THE TOP OF THE 6TH IF DETROITS WINNING I WIN? IF IS A TIE I PUSH AND IF NY IS WINNING I LOSE????


Correct.  The result after 5 innings is what matters.  If it's a tie, then the wager is cancelled.  
 
Banned
Participation Meter
Joined: Apr, 2009
Posts: 7370
Posted: #53
Quote Originally Posted by Cao75:

Bodio can u add me in ur list so i can PM u Ty !!!

Sure, send me a PM
 
Banned
Participation Meter
Joined: Apr, 2009
Posts: 7370
Posted: #54
Quote Originally Posted by mance:




I just want to add, that in that first game Detroit lineup was put together to face lefty C.C. And after rain delay, by the rules they can't make any roster changes, so that "lefty C.C. lineup" resume game against rigthy Nova. Tonight they have lineup in shape for him



AH!!!  excellent excellent point!  I didn't even consider that when analyzing Nova's performance in that game.  Nova is terrible against lefties and I do expect a number of them in the lineup for Detroit today.  

Thanks for sharing!!  great stuff
 
Banned
Participation Meter
Joined: Apr, 2009
Posts: 7370
Posted: #55
Quote Originally Posted by shotenzenjin:

Could it be your superb detailed analysis has sent this line plummeting??? There's not usually such a disparity between the full game and 5-innings lines...Pinny has the Tigers at +149ml for the game and +130ml over 5 innings.

Pinny had the 5-inning odds at +149 when I placed the wagers.  5Dimes was at +150 for 5-innings.  

They're both around +130 now.  I still love it at those odds..
 
Banned
Participation Meter
Joined: Apr, 2009
Posts: 7370
Posted: #56
Quote Originally Posted by TITANPANDA12:

BODIO,

Great job this season.  You have been an ATM for a lot of use who follow your plays.  I am on board with you on the TIGERS (5 inn).  I took the +1/2 for INS purposes.  

Thanks

No need for insurance.  
You'll just win in case the game is tied after 5.  
 
Rookie
Participation Meter
Joined: Dec, 2009
Posts: 910
Posted: #57

then odds look good.. mine still at +135

i also took a small bets 1st 5inn under 5 for the game. Any thought boido

 
Prospect
Participation Meter
Joined: Jan, 2011
Posts: 315
Posted: #58
Nice write-up thanks! hope to see Yanks, Brew-crew, Phillies choke §
 
Banned
Participation Meter
Joined: Apr, 2009
Posts: 7370
Posted: #59
Quote Originally Posted by tonywest32:

First time poster here,and let me say U R THE FN MAN....What r your thoughts on the double result prop play....Ive never seen you play first five innings....And u do believe the yanks can get down and come back like weve seen time and time again over the years...Im seeing detroit 1st five then yanks to win the game at 8 to 1... looks like some good value on an action wager....What u think...

As long as it's a fun 'action' wager, why the heck not?
I don't trust this Tigers bullpen at all.  Unless Fister goes 7-8 innings, this is not a bad wager.  Getting Detroit bullpen for 3 innings provides enough time for the Bombers to win it.  
 
Veteran
Participation Meter
Joined: Jul, 2007
Posts: 1958
Posted: #60
killer write-up! geeked out on your play! may the surfgod hear us! let it rip dude!
 
Banned
Participation Meter
Joined: Apr, 2009
Posts: 7370
Posted: #61
Quote Originally Posted by Cao75:

then odds look good.. mine still at +135

i also took a small bets 1st 5inn under 5 for the game. Any thought boido


it's an ok wager.  I expect Fister to be sharp.  Nova is a 'question mark'.  He might give up 3 or he might give up 6. (I'm hoping for 6 of course :)
 
Prospect
Participation Meter
Joined: Jan, 2006
Posts: 142
Posted: #62
That was some deep digging in your analysis, bod.  Worthy of an "A" regardless of the results...
 
Veteran
Participation Meter
Joined: Jun, 2002
Posts: 4128
Posted: #63
GL Bodio.
 
Banned
Participation Meter
Joined: Apr, 2009
Posts: 7370
Posted: #64
Quote Originally Posted by Monkeybongos:

That was some deep digging in your analysis, bod.  Worthy of an "A" regardless of the results...

Can I get an "A+" if the result is favorable?  
 
Rookie
Participation Meter
Joined: Dec, 2010
Posts: 659
Posted: #65
 
Prospect
Participation Meter
Joined: Oct, 2010
Posts: 262
Posted: #66
Bodio i have been reading your posts for some time, we are lucky to have a capper such as yourself on this site, thanks man
 
Prospect
Participation Meter
Joined: Apr, 2011
Posts: 407
Posted: #67
thanks for the writeup Bodio.

Tigers FF it is!


 
Prospect
Participation Meter
Joined: Aug, 2009
Posts: 300
Posted: #68
Quote Originally Posted by PriklyPete:

Bodio i have been reading your posts for some time, we are lucky to have a capper such as yourself on this site, thanks man

Completely agree!!  thank you for your work Bodio!!
 
Banned
Participation Meter
Joined: Aug, 2006
Posts: 6591
Posted: #69
Nice write up. I have to take issue with some things. You highlight how Detroit never saw Nova prior to game 1.5. But, don't mention how Fister's quality start against NYY in the regular season was the first time they were seeing the "new and improved" Doug Fister. Nova had multiple effective starts against Toronto and Baltimore. Both 700+ run scoring teams. He also shut down Texas the second time he saw them. A much better offensive team than Detroit. Also, you're cherry picking by saying the box score makes Fister's start look worse than it was. It's more an indictment of what a misleading stat ERA can be. His WHIP was 2.14. That's bad!

Anyway, good luck on your play!     
 
Veteran
Participation Meter
Joined: Nov, 2010
Posts: 4010
Posted: #70
 
MVP
Participation Meter
Joined: Nov, 2008
Posts: 15506
Posted: #71
Wow epic writeup there and a few nice add on points by others good stuff. And on top of that I too like DET today so I'm jacked to see you backing them. Not sure exactly how I'll play them. ML for sure and then +1.5 in some fashion. And as usual you were bang on two days back when you said plays 1-4 on my card were solid. I did great on the first few plays then like clockwork tailed off finishing 4-5 -0.55 units. Good news is I bounced back with a 4-0 +7.15 units card yesterday and kept the heater going. 8 +$ days outta 10 now at +47.7 units. Thanx for all the knowledge buddy you've really helped me turn a corner. And the best part is my fave/specialty sport is pucks and thats back tonight. &
 
Banned
Participation Meter
Joined: Apr, 2009
Posts: 7370
Posted: #72
Quote Originally Posted by jdr016:

Nice write up. I have to take issue with some things. You highlight how Detroit never saw Nova prior to game 1.5. But, don't mention how Fister's quality start against NYY in the regular season was the first time they were seeing the "new and improved" Doug Fister. Nova had multiple effective starts against Toronto and Baltimore. Both 700+ run scoring teams. He also shut down Texas the second time he saw them. A much better offensive team than Detroit. Also, you're cherry picking by saying the box score makes Fister's start look worse than it was. It's more an indictment of what a misleading stat ERA can be. His WHIP was 2.14. That's bad!

Anyway, good luck on your play!     

Not sure if I'd say that Texas is 'much better offensive team' than Detroit.  Both are top-5.  Sure Nova shut them down in his 2nd start against them.  But what does that have to do with anything? He was ineffective against them in his 3rd start and in his first against them for that matter.  This is baseball.  You'll always have an average pitcher have a game here and there where they 'shut down' a good offense.  I don't see the relevance of that.  It's much more relevant that Nova had an almost 7 ERA against top-5 offenses in AL in 7 games than what he did in 1 game.  

As to Yankees seeing "the improved" Fister for the first time, that's not exactly true.  He's faced them once this season already and gave up 3 ER's in 7 innings of work.  

To your point that Fister's WHIP was 2.14, you're focusing on 1 game.  I look at a larger picture when evaluating pitchers and matchups.  I've only discussed Fister's game 1 performance to explain that it's not indicative of how he generally does against top offensive teams.  It was one game and nothing more. 

Overall, Fister is a much better pitcher than Nova in my opinion and at +150 odds provides tremendous 'value' for the first-5 innings.
 
Banned
Participation Meter
Joined: Apr, 2009
Posts: 7370
Posted: #73
Quote Originally Posted by DDH420:

Wow epic writeup there and a few nice add on points by others good stuff. And on top of that I too like DET today so I'm jacked to see you backing them. Not sure exactly how I'll play them. ML for sure and then +1.5 in some fashion. And as usual you were bang on two days back when you said plays 1-4 on my card were solid. I did great on the first few plays then like clockwork tailed off finishing 4-5 -0.55 units. Good news is I bounced back with a 4-0 +7.15 units card yesterday and kept the heater going. 8 +$ days outta 10 now at +47.7 units. Thanx for all the knowledge buddy you've really helped me turn a corner. And the best part is my fave/specialty sport is pucks and thats back tonight. &

Nice.  Looks like hockey might have to replace NBA this season for me :)
 
Prospect
Participation Meter
Joined: Aug, 2011
Posts: 11
Posted: #74

Have you looked at football for tonite?

 

 
 
Prospect
Participation Meter
Joined: Aug, 2011
Posts: 11
Posted: #75
Sorry I'm in the wrong place.
All Forums | Penalty Box
About Us
Contact Us
Careers
Our Team
Brand
Testimonials
Betting Guides
Sportsbook Reviews
Sports Betting News
Podcasts
Responsible Gaming
Sports Betting
US Betting Sites
Canada Betting Sites
Canada Casinos
Best Betting Apps
Contests
Streak Survivor
King of Covers
Ultimate Race
Office Pools
The Covers community has
618,670
lifetime members worldwide
Covers 25 Years Logo Established in 1995,
Covers is the world
leader in sports
betting information.
Site Map Help Privacy Terms of Service youtube logo facebook logo twitter logo instagram logo linkedin logo google news logo
Covers is verified safe by: Evalon Logo GPWA Logo GDPR Logo GeoTrust Logo Evalon Logo
Copyright © 1995 - 2024 CS Media Limited All Rights Reserved.

If you choose to make use of any information on this website including online sports betting services from any websites that may be featured on this website, we strongly recommend that you carefully check your local laws before doing so.It is your sole responsibility to understand your local laws and observe them strictly.Covers does not provide any advice or guidance as to the legality of online sports betting or other online gambling activities within your jurisdiction and you are responsible for complying with laws that are applicable to you in your relevant locality.Covers disclaims all liability associated with your use of this website and use of any information contained on it.As a condition of using this website, you agree to hold the owner of this website harmless from any claims arising from your use of any services on any third party website that may be featured by Covers.