Fri 10/07
#1: UNDER 7 STL/PHI -122
Game 5 between Cards and Philly and this one is for ‘all the marbles’. I know everyone saw that Doc and Carp “struggled” in their last start so why should we expect different result here? Well for starters, Doc didn’t really struggle all that much. Sure he gave up a 3-run homer in the first inning but that happens. He promptly went on to pitch 7 scoreless innings allowing only 1 runner to get on base during that span (it was a single) with 6 K’s and zero walks. In his career against St Louis he has an ERA of 2.37 and WHIP of 0.9. He threw only 105 pitches (that’s low for him) in that outing and is starting on 5-days rest here. I expect him to be sharp.
Speaking of ‘sharp’, Carp was anything but in his first start against Philly. He did play that one on 3-days rest only and I feel that effected him. Will he have a poor performance against this Philly lineup again? I don’t think so. Check out what Carp has done against them prior to his start on Oct 2nd:
09/18/2011: 8 inn / 8 hits / 0 ER / 0 HR / 1 BB / 5 K
06/23/2011: 7 inn / 5 hits / 1 ER / 0 HR / 1 BB / 7 K
07/20/2010: 8 inn / 5 hits / 1 ER / 0 HR / 1 BB / 4 K
Carp threw only 64 pitches in that outing and will be starting on his standard 4-days rest this time. I expect him to be on his ‘A’ game. The fact that Phillies are averaging about 6.7 hits per game in their last three, scoring about 3.3 rpg is another factor in his favor here.
Carp finished the season with a slick 2.96 xFIP in September with a 4.63 K/BB ratio, his highest of the year. Doc on the other hand….well, you know what, I’m not even going to bother. It’s freaking Roy Halladay people. With an extra day of rest and a high-pressure situation like this, I expect him to be top-notch in this one.
My model has this game at 6.3 total runs. At UNDER 7, there would need to be 8 total runs scored in this game for the wager to lose providing 1.7 run variance. It’ll be a cool night in Philly with a lot on the line. I expect to see a well pitched game here as it will be a low scoring affair with either team having a chance to win this one in the end.
Good luck!
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