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Bodio's MLB Tue 10/04 (Playoffs)

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Posted: #26
Quote Originally Posted by nbafan88:

the shadows should help you tremendously in St Louis

Nice...another bonus
 
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Posted: #27
Hey bodio is there any other ways to get your plays except from covers forum ? Thank you for your support as always sir
 
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Posted: #28
BOL!  
 
US vs BOOKS
 
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Posted: #30
I guess with all the miraculous comebacks TB has made Its just hard for me to see the series ending today and going 0-2 at home in the playoffs.  I agree with your argument with the starting pitching matchup so will take my shot at first 5.  GL and thanks for all your picks and write-ups.
 
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Posted: #31

bodio --

love your write ups man... made a bet early early this morning bein a lil intoxicated at the time and was feelin hellickson for the early game, took it at -120, bet 333 to win 277.50,  now that i see that you are on the rangers i wanna change out of my bet but its at -105 on my book, just trying to figure out the right amount to bet to successfully nullify my rays bet and get on the winning side...

 

455 on the rangers would pay 433 so id be +100 with a rangers win then but -178 should the rays win.... do you think this is a good way to do it? is it worth doing anything at all at this point? any input is greatly appreciated... keep shippin winners man, i dig it

 
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Posted: #32
bol, like the card
 
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Posted: #33
Quote Originally Posted by redemption2012:

Hey bodio is there any other ways to get your plays except from covers forum ? Thank you for your support as always sir

PM me.

 
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Posted: #34
YOU JUST KEEP SLAMMING VALVERDE AND THE TIGERS WILL SLAM THE YANKS. YOUR OBVIOUSLY JUST MAD BECAUSE THE YANKS CANT BUY ANOTHER CHAMPIONSHIP. YOU MUST BE A SLOW LEARNER THERE IS A REASON VALVERDE IS PERFECT IN SAVES. HOW COME MARIANO WASNT PERFECT?
 
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Posted: #35
Quote Originally Posted by thaknuts:

bodio --

love your write ups man... made a bet early early this morning bein a lil intoxicated at the time and was feelin hellickson for the early game, took it at -120, bet 333 to win 277.50,  now that i see that you are on the rangers i wanna change out of my bet but its at -105 on my book, just trying to figure out the right amount to bet to successfully nullify my rays bet and get on the winning side...

 

455 on the rangers would pay 433 so id be +100 with a rangers win then but -178 should the rays win.... do you think this is a good way to do it? is it worth doing anything at all at this point? any input is greatly appreciated... keep shippin winners man, i dig it


hehe...well, if the Rangers win then you'd be up $100 and will be very happy you changed your mind.  If they lose, you'll be down $178 and you'll probably be back in this thread calling me all kinds of names and telling me how you should have just went with your initial 'gut' etc.  Bottom line is that I can't really tell you what to do.  All I can do is tell you what I'm doing, explain why, and show you my long-term records so that you can make a well informed decision.  Hope you make the right one for yours and more so for my sake!  :)

Good luck buddy!
 
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Posted: #36
Good Luck Bodio . Your work is greatly appreciated 
 
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Posted: #37
GL bodio...I like the Tex play a lot..
 
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Posted: #38
Shadows in STL 
 
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Posted: #39
Hello Bruthaman hope all is well.In the yankee game what do you think about the over.The reason i say this is because both pitchers aint that good.Burnett is hot and cold remember he almost lost his position during the regular season.so what do you think my man?thanks for a reply.
 
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Posted: #40
Hey Bodio - what do you think of NYY +385 to win the AL as an action play?

Best of luck today! 
The impossible only takes longer….
 
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Posted: #41
Bodio first off thx for all your input true leader in the ultimate goal of covers. Spreading knowledge and trying to help everyone beat the books up, your work is appreciated. How do you feel about over texas 8.5. i see this one being an exciting shoot-out. almost feel more comfortable with total than texas. What's you model have?
 
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Posted: #42
Quote Originally Posted by gusto56:

Hello Bruthaman hope all is well.In the yankee game what do you think about the over.The reason i say this is because both pitchers aint that good.Burnett is hot and cold remember he almost lost his position during the regular season.so what do you think my man?thanks for a reply.

I have the total at 8.9 runs for that game
 
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Posted: #43
know its last minute. Thought on texas/Tb total?

 
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Posted: #44
Bodio, thanks for yesterday and thanks again for today plays as always 
 
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Posted: #45
What are your thoughts on this prob bet Josh Hamilton hits+runs+rbi over 2.5 +105. My thought process is he is due for a breakout game and he us facing a gas can today, one bomb and we cover. Any thoughts
 
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Posted: #46
Quote Originally Posted by thaknuts:

bodio --

love your write ups man... made a bet early early this morning bein a lil intoxicated at the time and was feelin hellickson for the early game, took it at -120, bet 333 to win 277.50,  now that i see that you are on the rangers i wanna change out of my bet but its at -105 on my book, just trying to figure out the right amount to bet to successfully nullify my rays bet and get on the winning side...

 

455 on the rangers would pay 433 so id be +100 with a rangers win then but -178 should the rays win.... do you think this is a good way to do it? is it worth doing anything at all at this point? any input is greatly appreciated... keep shippin winners man, i dig it

thaknuts flip flopping on a bet when the line move hasn't gone in your favor is a very expensive thing long term.  You have said it yourself... you are basically betting the rangers to win at -178 now when the available line is -105.  This is especially a problem since you are only trying to win 100.  Say you were to double your original bet 699.3 to win 666 on TEX you would effectively reduce the -178 to -127.  Not nearly as bad as the -178 in my opinion but then again if your bankroll can't take that kind of hit (lose 422 if rays win) then I wouldn't suggest it.  You should probably have 16k bankroll to be betting 333 on a game in the first place but to each their own.  Good luck today in whatever you decide.        

 
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Posted: #47

Great writeups  on todays acton  starting with Texas 

Let's roll da man !!   GL Bro  

 
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Posted: #48
Quote Originally Posted by wolfeman3:

Hey Bodio - what do you think of NYY +385 to win the AL as an action play?

Best of luck today! 

Nova vs Fister in game 5 eh?  Bombers would be at home facing a lefty thus they'll have a solid chance.

Then most likely Rangers who have 3 lefty starters with home-field advantage.  The only problem is that Rangers starting pitchers are probably a bit better than Yankees'.  

At +385 odds you have about 21% chance of winning this one.  Yankees have about a 25% chance of winning this first series.  There really is not much 'value' in this bet but if you want to put a small action wager on it why not
 
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Posted: #49
Quote Originally Posted by Dvegas13:

Bodio first off thx for all your input true leader in the ultimate goal of covers. Spreading knowledge and trying to help everyone beat the books up, your work is appreciated. How do you feel about over texas 8.5. i see this one being an exciting shoot-out. almost feel more comfortable with total than texas. What's you model have?


7.6 total runs
 
 
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Damn no response on your model for total runs on texas game?
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